“When Bird would come into your building… started lighting you up
and talking trash... man, that’s hard on a guy. It’s like driving a stake
right in your heart!” - Glen Rice - Miami Heat small forward
I could not find exactly when
Glen Rice gave this quote, but regardless, I’d bet this would be one of those
games he was referencing. For a game
summary on this date in April of 1990, the veteran Larry Bird led the Celtics
to a 115-105 road win while not giving any mercy to his opponents. Bird tortured the defense for 37 points, 9
rebounds and 10 assists in 42 minutes of playing time. Meanwhile, the rookie Glen Rice who gave his
best effort for 39 minutes finished with 12 points, 3 rebounds and 4
assists.
The Miami Heat at this time
of franchise history was in its second full year of existence and my guess is
Glen Rice did not have a seasoned veteran on the team to mentor him through
some of the early big challenges like mentally preparing for an opponent like
Larry Bird.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199004070MIA.html
Sometimes the challenges on
the farm can be overwhelming, and you need the veterans on the team to help
guide the way for some of the younger crew members. When the teamwork is cohesive and everyone is
contributing to the success of the farm business, everyone wins.
Some of the best businesses
today have employee handbooks to help guide new workers in their contribution
to the overall health of the business. A
good employee handbook should also define what the employee can expect from
their supervisor and employer if their dedication, willingness to learn and
drive to be a significant influence in the business is clearly demonstrated
over time. Let’s touch more on employee
handbooks later.
Regional Weather
A
significant dusting of snow on the ground here in Grand Forks to start the
week, but a couple days of mid 40F for daily high temps will probably take care
of most of it. Daily high temperatures
should mostly stay about average, but no big storms have occurred or are
currently on the horizon.
I’ll count on your weather app
for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that,
I’ve found this site from NOAA to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day
outlook (next week). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
For Thanksgiving week this
November, the forecast is to have greater chances of above average temperatures
as well as above average chances of having drier than average precipitation. This should bode well for all the holiday
travelers.
The NOAA
organization also provides three month outlooks. If we would like to get a general forecast
for next summer’s growing season timeframe of Jun-Jul-August, it can be seen
here:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../long_range/seasonal.php?lead=8
This forecast
currently predicts equal chances on both temperatures and precipitation for our
region. Equal chances or EC basically
means there is equal opportunity for either above or below average conditions
to formulate. As we get closer to the
upcoming summer months on the calendar, the prediction could sway one
direction. As usual, we’ll see.
USDA Insights
Last week, the USDA published its WASDE
(World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) report for the month of
November. The report can be found at
this link.
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1120.pdf
As I’m sure you are all aware, the report
generated quite the bullish response.
Currently, we are looking at over $11.50 soybean futures for January,
and over $4.15 December futures for corn.
This drives a strong soybean to corn price ratio of 2.77, which gives a
huge advantage towards soybeans for acres currently.
Here are some of the details around the
report and other tidbits provided by DTN’s Todd Hultman (via web tele-conf):
·
Corn ending stocks: 1.702 bil bushels –
which was significantly below trade expectations
·
Reduction to 175.8 bu/ac for 2020 corn yield
forecast – which lowers the crop estimate by 200 mil bu
·
Corn export estimate up by 325 mil bushels over
the last month
·
Corn world ending stocks down by about 9 MMT
(353.6 mil bu) month over month
·
11.5% estimated stocks to use ratio provides a
corn cash price a tad over $4.10/bu (close to Dec. futures price currently)
·
US corn export commitments up 179% year over
year (forecasted for 2.65 bil bu)
·
Corn basis is 2nd narrowest in prior
8 years
·
Net long position by speculators is the highest
in 2-yrs.
·
Soybeans – 190 mil bu ending stocks –
also below trade expectations
·
Exports are flat month over month (but thoughts
are they should be up)
·
Yield forecast down slightly from 51.9 to 50.7
bu/ac, results in a loss of 100 mil bu of production
·
Ending stocks to use ratio at 4.2%, near the
record for last 23 years for tightness of soybean stocks. Should result in a price around $12.50/bu
cash – suggesting more bullish movement
·
Soybean export estimate at 2.2 bil bu for the
year; up 31%
·
Soybean basis – narrowest in 7 years; 5 year
average of 74 cents, but closer to 51 cents currently nationwide (also a
bullish signal)
·
Brazil soybean prices are $1.31 above gulf US
prices due to low supplies - China has bought them all
·
Trader’s (funds) are heavy long in the futures
market (largest volume on record) – creates more volatility
·
Wheat ending stocks had a neutral report
on the US balance sheet
·
Same production estimate for yield forecasted
·
Spring ending stocks at 317 mil bu
·
World ending wheat stocks at or near record
highs
·
41.7% ending stocks to use ratio for HRW results
in a price near $4.25 cash
If you’d like to read more from Todd
Hultman from DTN, he gives his perspectives here on some post-WASDE report
thoughts. Obviously, we are in territory
to “reward the market” when we see fit.
https://agfax.com/2020/11/15/how-accurate-are-wasde-reports-it-depends-on-when-you-ask/
NDSU Trial Results – 2020
Most farms usually place some value
in the independent research done by our local ND state university. The results have been published for the
season as most of their trial data can be found at the following website: https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/varietytrialS
Some highlights from Pioneer
genetics:
· -Top oil sunflower hybrid with P64HE101 by a wide
margin
· - Strong soybean IDC with P01A84X and P03A17X
https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/2020soyb-iron-deficiency-chlorosis...
· - Strong performance from Pioneer canola with RR,
LL, and CL hybrids
2021 Corteva TruChoice
The 2021 programs are out and
available now from the Corteva Crop Protection (CP) team. Please take a gander at the highlights. The key for any farm that is planning to
utilize Corteva CP products and/or purchasing Pioneer seed genetics, is to
deposit money into their farm’s TruChoice account by January 15th,
2021. A minimum deposit of $7,500 will
start the ball rolling on discounts for the season. I’m not going to labor you with the details
from there, but it’s a solid offering that provides the discounts up-front and
immediately – no waiting to see if you qualify or wondering how big or small the
rebate may be.
As questions or comments come into
your mind, please feel free to reach-out to myself or anyone on the Pioneer or
Corteva team.
Best Management
Practices – Employee Handbooks
As
discussed earlier, an employee handbook should be highly considered for any
business hiring one or more employees.
Below are some of the best tips for writing and implementing an employee
handbook for your business:
- Job
description. Maybe even include a
couple additional jobs in the business that they can support as a
potential employee when needed or as opportunities open in the future
- A
history of the farm business or company should be included; consider even
placing some rough outlines of the future vision of the company as well
- Guidelines
on social media and smartphone usage.
Does the business allow social media posts about their activities?
- Standard
handbook items:
- Compensation and promotions – rough quidelines
- Additional benefits or benefit potential (i.e. company
vehicle, retirement, etc.)
- Driver’s License policy, and vehicle insurance policy
on the job
- Paid time off policy
- Employee behavior guidelines
- General benefits with health care (don’t be too
specific as these tend to change frequently)
- If
a policy is written in the handbook, attention has been given to the topic
and it needs enforcing. If you
think it’s best not to enforce a policy, then the policy needs removed
from the handbook
- Include
an employee acknowledgement page that can be signed a day or two after
distribution to ensure that the employee has read the document. This page should be easily removeable for
the farm manager to document and file
- Lastly,
have your close business partners and lawyers review the handbook
document. Their insight should help
offset any potential liability and litigation.
https://www.inc.com/guides/2010/06/what-to-include-in-employee-handbook.html
National Winter Trade
Shows
Many folks in the ag-business
sector, including top producing farms, look for a quest in the winter by
travelling and seeking knowledge from attending at least one major agricultural
show. Depending on your thirst, one of
the following events usually fits the bill - DTN’s Ag Summit, National Farm
Machinery Show, Top Producer, or Commodity Classic.
The DTN Ag Summit typically,
kick-starts the winter season of ag-show activities. It is held in Chicago in early December and
traditionally has focused on the technology aspect of the business. Due to many reasons, this year’s Ag Summit
event will be held virtually on Dec 7-9.
The DTN team highlights an all-star cast of speakers and a solid pace of
presentations to keep the event running smooth.
If you’d like more insight, the below link gets you to the conference’s
home page. http://www.cvent.com/events/dtn-2020-ag-summit/event-summary...
In mid-February, the National Farm Machinery Show in
Louisville (Feb 10-13) is another top ag-show destination. At this time, they plan on conducting their
event in person on Feb 10-13th. https://10times.com/nationalfarm-machinery-show
The Top Producer event revolves primarily around the
business side of ag-production – banking, finance, succession planning,
etc. This year’s Top Producer event will
have both an in-person three-day session and a virtual 3-day session. The in-person event will be in Nashville,
from February 15-17, and the virtual conference from February 23-25th.
https://events.farmjournal.com/top-producer-summit-2021/
The Commodity Classic event with the National Corn Growers
Association and other groups will be hosting their event virtually this
year. This show is probably the biggest
of three and typically signals the conclusion of the winter information season
with a date in early March. This event
is a tremendously great place to get new ideas to implement on the farm from
all different aspects of the business.
The Commodity Classic is always a favorite due to their rotation among
the big cities in the southern US for host sites. Next year’s Commodity Classic is forecasted
to revert-back to a live event in…. New Orleans on March 10-12, 2022. https://commodityclassic.com/
Product Spotlight: Crop Storage – Bins vs. Bags?
There is high probability that we
will get a full crop planted next spring and thus, it usually places some added
stress on storing the crop efficiently and effectively come harvest for most
operations. In preparation for our
business winter planning, Farm Journal published some information from the
Univ. of Tennessee to help farm managers decide on the value of erecting steel
bins against maybe the more versatile approach of grain-bags.
The
following chart below analyzes the cost of storing 50,000 bu of grain. Univ. of Tennessee data.
https://www.agweb.com/article/bins-versus-bags
This topic can be somewhat of a hot button – some people love the ag-bags, and some people absolutely despise them. Some folks say the grain stores well over the summer, some farms have experience and recommend the ag-bags be emptied before spring work begins. You’ll need less labor to fill ag-bags at harvest time if the bags are being filled in each field (less to no truck labor at harvest). However, you’ll need more labor in the winter filling trucks from ag-bags versus a central grain bin facility. Rodents and deer can be issues to enhance ag-bag grain spoilage, and snow may need to be handled for efficient unloading at the various field sites.
If you are considering investment
in this space, the earlier lead time given to a manufacturer the better. It just seems to take longer than expected to
find grain-bag equipment, and/or supplies and labor to build bins given the
derecho storm this summer in Iowa/Illinois and other factors. Good luck.
Here are some additional resources for further reading:
https://www.agweb.com/article/what-consider-investing-grain-bags
https://www.agweb.com/article/do-you-know-your-storage-options
https://www.agweb.com/article/6-tips-for-winter-grain-bag-storage
FMC’s 3rd Quarter Earnings
Whether it’s right, wrong or
indifferent, I often look to US based companies to get a feel of how healthy
the ag-sector is performing. John Deere,
and Corteva are the obvious top choices, but FMC Corp is a lesser known crop
protection pesticide business and US based.
FMC is a world-wide business generating about $4.7 bil of revenue per
year.
FMC’s third quarter revenue was
$1.08 bil and an increase of 7% over 3rd quarter of 2019, and if you
excluded foreign currencies, the growth would be about 15% year over year
organic growth. The CEO of the company
stated the positives as growth in demand, geographic balance, and continued
cost reductions due to the global pandemic.
Their North American segment of sales increased 8% year over year for
2020. These positives have obviously
raised FMC’s 2020 financial outlook.
It’s a good sign for the future of
agriculture that many segments are making positive strides. With the shortage of supply stocks in the
corn and soybean markets and positive 3rd quarter results from some
key US based ag-companies, agriculture should be on a path to a brighter
future.
http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---37079.htm
Random Agricultural Facts – Thanksgiving
History
With the Thanksgiving festivities looming, let’s converse a bit about the history of the holiday with the closest ties to agriculture.
·
The first Thanksgiving was celebrated by the
Pilgrims and the Wampanoag tribe of Native Americans in October of 1621 and
lasted for 3 days
·
Christopher Columbus landed in the Americas in 1492,
making it 129 years between European’s first arrivals and the celebration of
the first Thanksgiving between the natives and the European pioneers
·
The struggles of the community regarding ag
production were well noted with the early settlers to America. Primarily, the colonial leaders fought to
find consistent labor under a system where the harvest was shared equally
across the people
·
After the land was eventually divided amongst
the colonists and individual responsibility for food production was passed onto
the family, it was only then that innovations began to be implemented and
production increased
·
The first national Thanksgiving Day in USA
history was proclaimed by President George Washington in 1789
·
Abraham Lincoln chose the last Thursday in
November for the Thanksgiving holiday starting in 1863
·
Franklin D. Roosevelt and the US Congress
finally declared Thanksgiving a National holiday by proclaiming the fourth
Thursday of November as Thanksgiving starting in 1942
·
90% of American homes will consume turkey on
Thanksgiving while the average complete Thanksgiving dinner has over 4,500
calories!
·
Benjamin Franklin wanted the turkey to be the
national bird, one of his biggest arguments being that it is native to America
·
Thanksgiving is also celebrated in Canada- on
the second Monday in October
·
According to the American Automobile
Association, millions of Americans travel an estimated 50 miles or more from
home during the Thanksgiving weekend to spend time with friends and family,
making it easily the most traveled week of the year for US citizens.
https://www.reluctantgourmet.com/thanksgiving-facts-trivia/
https://www.history.com/news/thanksgiving-history-trivia-facts
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Thanksgiving-Day
