Tuesday, August 4, 2020

Aug. 3rd, 2020 edition



“When you think about the potential weed spectrum across the field, a guy should have 100% weed control with the Enlist-3® soybean technology package -- Liberty® for kochia, glyphosate for wild oats, and 2,4-D for volunteer canola.” – North Dakota farmer

 

My conversation with this particular farm continued to move forward to note the wide application window and fewer regulatory restrictions compared to alternative soybean weed control strategies.  Many farms are naturally reviewing their weed control success across the farm and coming to the realization the changes that need to be implemented for continued improvement.

Corteva® remains committed to providing growers with weed control options for today and the future.  Not only are we looking to bring the Enlist® weed control platform to corn (with fop tolerance), but we also are looking at additional technologies to further build upon the Enlist® system in soybean.  For canola, we continue to work towards our own Optimum Gly® for next generation glyphosate tolerances.  Lastly, for sunflower, our organization looks to bring a potential Clearfield and ExpressSun non-GMO herbicide stack.


Weather and Corn Development

The good conditions for row crops continue – abundant sunshine, moderate to warm temps, minimal wind, with some chances of precipitation.  We’ll have cooler temperatures to start the week, but warmer conditions afterward starting on Thursday or Friday.  The week should bring another 140 GDD’s.


The heat unit accumulation map for our region through Aug 2nd continues to have our corn crop in a very favorable position regarding maturity as we finish-up pollination and head to the blister and milk stages.  Corn hybrids in the 80-90 RM range will require about 1950 to 2100 GDU’s to reach full physiological maturity (i.e. black layer).  With most locations around 100 to 200 GDD’s above normal (1981-2010 for a 30-year average is the defined normal for NDAWN), we are seeing this season’s corn crop about 5-10 days ahead of average in general with regards to maturity.


I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from NOAA to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week). 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

During this time frame the forecast is to have greater chances of being above average for temperatures, while the precipitation forecast is for equal chances of both below and above average conditions to develop.

The NOAA group also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get an early look at the forecast for the winter season of Dec-Jan-Feb, it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/...

The winter forecast at this time reveals equal chances of either above or below average temperatures, and calls for slightly greater chances of having above average precipitation – should be good for the folks who like snowmobiles or have a snow removal business!


US Crop Progress

The USDA estimates corn silking is occurring across 92% of the US acreage, and at 80% for North Dakota.  The prior 5-year average for corn silking across the US is 87% (77% for ND), making the corn crop slightly ahead of schedule across the nation.  The corn crop condition report remains at 72% of acreage in the good to excellent category (same as last week), and the North Dakota crop rates at the same level of the US crop – 72% in the good to excellent category (also same as last week).

For soybeans, USDA predicts that 85% of the acres are blooming, while 73% rate in the good to excellent category for crop condition.  North Dakota’s soybeans would rate at 65% good to excellent and 81% are at least in the bloom stage.

Spring wheat has a 73% good to excellent rating across the US for crop condition (up 3% points over last week) with N.Dakota’s spring wheat condition rated below the national average at 68% good to excellent.

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/70795w747/6t054476d/prog3220.pdf

Overall, individual reports from the folks I converse with across the country continue to reveal a good to excellent crop coming in many/most locations.  The US Drought Monitor for late July only has some minor acreage of “Moderate Drought” throughout the major grain producing regions.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


What’s Happening in my Corn Field?

I came across an interesting social media post from a Pioneer agronomist referencing some field research in Kansas under irrigation.  The trial highlighted the importance of the corn ear leaf for grain production.  The field experiment contained three different treatments that were all implemented at the R1 (silking) growth stage.  The three treatments across one consistent hybrid were, 1) removal of every corn plant leaf below the ear leaf, 2) removal of every corn plant leaf above the ear leaf, and 3) removal of only the ear leaf. 

How significant is that ear leaf for corn grain fill?  Well, let’s just say that the yield difference between treatment one and three was very significant – 94 bu/ac in a 275 bu/ac yield environ-ment (or a 34% yield reduction)!


https://twitter.com/phhermans/status/1276497382486749184/photo/3


What’s Happening in my Soybean Field?

Many soybeans are in the R3-R4 growth stage across the region or beginning to full pod reproductive stage.  The below chart is a great reference for growth stage descriptions and estimating the numbers of days between each reproductive stage.  Group 0 and 00 soybeans varieties will be on the quicker side of the stated estimated “Rage of Days Between Stages”.


It should come as no surprise that August is the primary month when soybeans determine yield through dry matter accumulation in the seed.  Sixty-seven percent of the yield comes from the number of seeds and 33% comes from the seed size. 

I have been receiving a few questions on foliar applications of micro-nutrients and fungicides to protect yields.  My first thought around fertility is to ensure we are doing everything possible to obtain full uptake of the macro nutrients (N, P and K).  The soybean plant requires 5.5 lbs of N, 1.2 lbs of P and 2.4 lbs of K per bu.  It is estimated that 70-75% of N-P-K is taken up by the soybean crop from the R3-R7 growth stages, revealing the importance of having adequate levels of macro-nutrients available during grain fill.

Looking ahead to fall fertilizer applications, it’s important to understand these soybean fertility requirements.  I like to see a soil test showing at least 10 ppm for phosphorus on the Olsen scale and a minimum of 150-180 ppm for potassium to reach optimum yield levels.  For top level yields, increase these levels to 20 ppm on a P Olsen test and 200+ ppm for K.  As for nitrogen, nodulation and bacterial fixation require well drained soils with plenty of oxygen.

Foliar micro-nutrient application at the R3 stage can be beneficial, but I’ll always recommend sound on-farm testing of any product on both a yield response and financial perspective, before wide-spread implementation.  Very few farms have successfully evaluated and found a soybean foliar micro-nutrient package that works consistently and economically.  I’d say this space continues to evolve in the ag industry and our efforts to conduct on-farm trials needs to remain high.  We will most likely see a response in low organic matter soils, or fields with a long history of productive cropping, minimal micronutrient use in the past, and frequently below average soil test results.

Regarding soybean fungicide application at R3 for plant health reasons primarily…  Well again, I always like to see some treated versus untreated side-by-sides implemented to warrant widespread future use.  I know each year is different for environmental conditions and thus the results can vary year to year.  However, the data I’ve seen doesn’t warrant this type of application in our Group 0 and 00 RM zones (too short of growing season could be the primary reason) unless we are going after white mold management in field conditions that favor mold development.

If you have interest in on-farm testing, please converse with myself or your Pioneer sales professional.  Your Pioneer salesman can recruit other farms in the area or region that have similar interest to help generate additional data.  The statisticians document that two corn hybrids in one side-by-side yield evaluation location need about a 30 bu/ac difference to clearly define a winner by a 90-95% confidence level.  If you increase the location number to around 20-25 sites, then the yield difference is reduced to an average of 3.5-5.0 bu/ac at the same confidence range.

https://extension.umn.edu/crop-specific-needs/soybean-fertilizer-recommendations#other-nutrients-1078562


Sunflower Management

Cash sunflower commodity price is reflecting fall harvest prices, but at the same time sunflower processors are running low on supplies for their local oil crush and are looking for replenishing stocks.  If our warm weather continues to hold throughout August and early September, there may be a chance for some early to mid-September desiccation and sunflower harvesting to thus occur before the month of October hits.  As the summer begins to wind down, I’d recommend sunflower producers stay in touch with their sunflower buyers for potential to capture any September sales and potential premiums.

After a harvest like 2019, it’s hard to believe that sunflowers can be ready to combine 10 days after application of a desiccant, but that is how it’s supposed to work with cooperation from Mother Nature!  I like to recommend a mix of glyphosate with Sharpen™ for sunflower desiccation.  A paraquat with Sharpen™ tank-mix can also be very effective if the forecast calls for heat, sunshine and dry weather from the time of desiccation through harvest.  If we do encounter some rain after application the glyphosate treated sunflower plants tend to shed the water more easily, while the paraquat as a cell membrane disruptor, will act more like a sponge and subsequent slow drying.  The pre-harvest interval (PHI) is 7 days for either herbicide combination regarding sunflower desiccation.


Product Spotlight – VoloDrone®

A drone based start-up company Volocopter® is teaming with John Deere® to bring a drone based aerial crop-dusting applicator to the ag market.  In the age of heightened human health concerns from pesticides, skilled labor shortages, and technology innovation, it does make sense for the industry to explore options in this aspect of the ag business.

The VoloDrone prototype (pic above) has 18 rotors, about a 30 ft wide spray-boom,  can take-off and land vertically, and can be programmed with a fully autonomous path for an easy user experience.  Only a couple concerns come to mind… Can we spray a 160-acre field with one machine in under an hour?  And, what do we do with pesticide products that need 15 gpa water carrier volume?  I’m sure we could fill-up more often and get more drone applicators to achieve the desired efficiency, but we’ll have to keep the pencil sharp to calculate ROI on the technology.

I could potentially see added technology like weed ID and/or some type of “green seeker” mechanism to specifically target individual weed species to maximize the use and increase the efficiencies of ownership and implementation.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/07/volocopter-and-john-deere...

https://www.futurefarming.com/Machinery/Articles/2020/3/Drone...


Enlist Duo® wins 9th Circuit Court Case

Back in early June, the US 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco made a very dramatic statement that grabbed a heap of attention at the time with their ruling to vacate labels of three dicamba formulations.  Thankfully, the EPA stepped in and asserted their congressional authority in granting regulatory approval for all pesticides (while taking into consideration court rulings), by allowing a short-term window for use of dicamba with approved soybean technology for the 2020 weed control season through July 31st.

Next, it was Enlist Duo™’s (Corteva®’s 2,4-D choline plus glyphosate herbicide formulation for use in Enlist-3 soybeans) turn in front of the same court (but different judges) for many of the same reasons as dicamba.  If you have not been following the cases, it’s good to note the legal ramifications and questioning revolved around stewardship of the herbicide regarding EPA’s procedure and evaluations to grant approval of the herbicide package.  Basically, the plaintiffs have alleged in both the dicamba and 2,4-D choline cases that the EPA broke its own internal protocols and procedures in granting pesticide approval.

Many folks were surprised that the 9th Circuit Court denied the request to vacate the Enlist Duo™ registration by ruling that the EPA was thorough in it’s evaluation of the 2,4-D choline plus glyphosate herbicide package in regards to stewardship and the Endangered Species Act.  The court did have concerns regarding Monarch Butterflies and 2,4-D choline use, but will allow Corteva® and EPA to address the situation while the label remains viable and open.  https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops...butterflies.


Dicamba Court Battle Continues

Corteva®, BASF®, and Bayer® continue to fight the 9th Circuit Court’s initial ruling to vacate the three dicamba formulations (Fexepan™, Enginia™, and Extendimax™) for use in RR2Xtend® soybean production.  Earlier this summer (July 20th) the three companies asked for a re-hearing of the case in the same 9th Circuit Court.  If the court decides against the re-hearing, the final options for the defendants would be the US Supreme Court.

Besides preventing a poor precedence, I’m not sure of the strategy around asking for a re-hearing.  The federal labels of all three products (Fexepan™ by Corteva®, Engenia™ by BASF®, and XtendiMax™ by Bayer®) are set to expire in December of 2020, and most all of the dicamba use in the US from these three products will be applied by July 31st.   

Regardless, the decision has been made by both Bayer® and BASF® to pursue re-registration of their respected dicamba formulations for 2021 with completed registration packages submitted into the EPA already this summer.  Bayer® is also awaiting export approval of their XtendFlex® soybean technology system (glyphosate, dicamba and glufosinate) for commercial launch in the US planned for 2021.

Many US growers are evaluating their weed control options for 2021 as growth regulator resistance to both dicamba and 2,4-D is appearing in Palmer amaranth and waterhemp in some locations in the south.  The robustness of the technology has been stellar over the past couple seasons in our region, but we’ll continue to need advanced tools from industry to stay a step ahead of the weed evolution.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/.../companies-ask-ninth-circuit-court-re https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture...dicamba-use-faces-trio-threats-weeds


Fourth US Stimulus Package – may include Ethanol relief

It may be hard for the working US tax payer to fathom payment of another stimulus package, but many agree that the economy is having a difficult time getting its feet fully back underneath it after the forced shut-down.  The next round of stimulus will probably be passed by Congress in the coming weeks for continued assistance towards families and businesses. 

Maybe that feeling for tax payers will be somewhat squelched with proposed tax relief stimulus.  For agriculture, there is a proposed $20 bil to the USDA for additional funding to producers, growers and processors.  The ethanol industry is lobbying hard for inclusion of direct aid (not aid through the USDA), but opponents say that many ethanol facilities did access PPP (Payroll Protection Program) funds and the ethanol industry can be supported through the USDA.

If the ethanol industry does garner aid (some reports indicate proposals of $0.45/gal subsidy), it should result in greater corn demand and thus naturally drive some positive corn market price movement.

http://ethanolproducer.com/.../senate-releases-covid-19-relief-bills


Markets 


Speaking of corn markets, I came across this interesting commodity chart last week.  It highlights the corn hedger’s position in the solid blue line and the corn price in the solid black line over the prior 10-year timeframe with the chart origination date of May 2020.  The overall message - despite the large US corn crop forecasted for 2020 production and the huge amount of corn in domestic supplies, the corn hedges are saying there is a strong chance for a rally in the corn market.

Over the past 10-years, usually the hedgers were rewarded with an increase in corn commodity price when their hedge positions were high.  If you have 2019 or 2020 corn production without a current home, you may see an opportunity in the coming months.  It’s probably a good time to review and/or adjust your marketing goals to maximize any potential upcoming corn market movements.


Random Agricultural Facts - World’s Top Ag Producing Nations

The last couple weeks, we conversed about US and Canada ag production.  But how does the US rank on the world stage?  Well, the US is easily the top producing country of ag produce in the world when considering coarse grain, oilseed and cottonseed exclusively.  With China coming in a distant second at 65% of the US production, and Brazil at less than half the US production, are there any guesses to the fourth-place finisher?  According to Ag News, which had an article on the “Top 20” agricultural countries for the 2018/19 season, Argentina would rank fourth on this list with less than a fourth the production of the US.  Another way to evaluate the US’s dominance in this category would be the combined output of the third to sixth place finishers would equal the US.  Here are the “Top 10” producing countries with corresponding volumes (coarse grain, oilseed and cottonseed):

  • United States – 513.7 MMT
  • China – 335.3 MMT
  • Brazil – 230.4 MMT
  • Argentina – 120.6 MMT
  • India – 88.9 MMT
  • France – 76.5 MMT
  • Russia – 53.7 MMT
  • Germany – 47.2 MMT
  • Romania – 29.4 MMT
  • United Kingdom – 27.3 MMT

 

1 Mil Metric Ton is the equivalent of 36.67 mil bushels of 60 lb/bu grain product.

http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---35595.htm



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