“I’m sorry that your hamstring has you out of
tonight’s game… But, since you are here,
just sit back and relax – I’ll put on a show for you!” – Larry Bird to his foe
Magic Johnson.
On this
particular night in NBA history (February of 1981 in Los Angles), the
Boston Celtics went on to post a convincing 105-91 road win against the
reigning World Champion Lakers. So, how
did Larry “Legend” perform? Well, it
should come as no surprise that Larry’s game on the court fully backed-up his
pre-game ribbing of his rival by amassing 36 points, 21 rebounds, 6 assists and
5 steals. I wouldn’t be surprised if
Larry found Magic after the game and put a little icing on the cake with one of
his favorite lines – a humble “I told you so!”
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198102110LAL.html
There’s
not many opportunities these days to enjoy a show in agriculture, but there
are still a few events and activities rolling to keep our days filled along
with harvest. The Fargo “Big Iron” trade
show is still set for mid-September (15-17th), the Red River Farm
Network has their crop tour going on this week (Aug 24-28th) that
you can catch on social media and/or the radio, plus there are numerous small
scale local field days going on with crop protection territory managers, seed professionals, and
university extension that can assist in helping the planning for 2021.
Weather and
Corn Development
We’ll
have average to above average daily temperatures this week – highs in the upper
70’sF, and lows in the upper 50’sF primarily, with potentially our last 80F
plus daily high temperature of the year.
The week’s weather conditions should bring another 125-130 GDD’s and
keep the corn and other crops moving along well past average for maturity.
The heat unit accumulation map
for our region through Aug 23rd continues to place our corn crop in
a very favorable position regarding maturity.
Fargo is the hot spot at over 2,000 corn growing degree days for the
season to date while Rolla is the cool spot at just over 1500 GDD’s. However, Rolla is the top location for GDD’s
above normal for the 2020 season to date versus the 30-year time frame of
1981-2010.
Many corn fields are at the dough to mid-dent stage (R5) currently and will require about another month or approximately 500 GDD’s to hit black layer. However, if you have corn fields experiencing drought conditions, the lack of moisture may hasten maturity a bit and push the crop along slightly faster than predicted.
The rainfall map for our region
didn’t change much from last week for the month of August as only a couple
tenths fell in most locations. Western
N.D is getting dry and many soybean fields west of Hwy 83 are currently
responding poorly to the heat and lack of moisture in this area.
I’ll count on your weather app
for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that,
I’ve found this site from NOAA to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day
outlook (next week). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
For the first week of September,
the forecast is to have greater chances of being significantly below average
for temperatures, while the precipitation forecast is for greater chances of being
drier than average.
The NOAA group
also provides three month outlooks. If
we would like to get a general forecast for the upcoming harvest time-frame of Sept-Oct-Nov,
it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
This forecast
currently predicts significantly greater chances for above average temperatures,
while also calling for equal chances of below and above average precipitation as
well. Hopefully, we are in for a nice
harvest season and an opportunity for autumn work to be accomplished.
US Crop Progress
The big derecho storm across Iowa and
Illinois two weeks ago, continue to affect the crop condition estimates across
the US. It is estimated that 37.7 mil
acres of corn and soybeans have been damaged by the Aug. 10th derecho
storm in the heart of the Midwest. At 175.8
mil US corn and soybean acres planted for 2020, this 37.7 mil acre number
equates to about 21.5% of the two primary crop acres for the year. And, these acres are in some of the best
non-irrigated production fields in the nation.
Of course, these acres will still produce grain, but how much grain
exactly will they be able to salvage is the question.
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2020/08/derecho-damage-begins...
The USDA states that corn dent is occurring
across 44% of the US acreage, and at 8% for North Dakota. The prior 5-year average for corn denting
across the US is 39% (20% for ND), making the corn crop slightly behind
schedule across the nation according to the USDA (contrary to what our GDD maps
indicate). The corn crop condition
report comes in at 64% of acreage in the good to excellent category (last week
– 69%), and the North Dakota crop rates a tad stronger than the US crop at 67%
in the good to excellent category.
For soybeans, USDA predicts that 92% of the acres
are setting pods, while 69% of acres rate in the good to excellent category for
crop condition (prior week of 72%). North
Dakota’s soybeans would rate at 65% good to excellent and 93% are at least in
the pod setting stage.
Spring wheat has a 71% good to excellent
rating across the US for crop condition (up 1% points over last week) with
N.Dakota’s spring wheat condition rated below the national average at 63% good
to excellent. The USDA estimates the
spring wheat harvest at 49% complete (39% for N.Dakota) which is behind the
national 5-year average of 62% complete for harvest at this date (59% for
N.Dakota).
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j?locale=en
A Shift Towards Bullish Market
Perspectives
The
ag-market news is starting to swing towards a bullish outlook as optimism is
being seen with less US production potential due to a dry finish to the
cropping season in many locations across the US. Also, the derecho storm impacts across Iowa
and Illinois from Aug. 10th are being somewhat fully realized as
well.
Chris
Barron and Duane Lowry from Farm Progress had an interesting podcast discussion
on the topic and I’d recommend finding some time to have a listen. From Mr. Lowry’s perspective, he thinks the
harvest low price is in our review mirror for corn and that soybean producers
should look to lock-in some profits as soybean futures drive upwards over the
harvest time frame.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bullish-market-drivers-ahead/id1467935773?i=1000488937298
Nitrogen
Management with Fall Fertilizer Applications
As
the late summer heat continues to push the crop along there is a strong
possibility for success this autumn when it comes to fall field work and
fertilizer applications. Currently, due
to all the rain this summer there are numerous corn fields showing various
levels of nitrogen fertilizer deficiency and thus highlighting the need for enhanced
nitrogen management to help our applied nitrogen last later into the year.
Corn
hybrid research has shown that more nitrogen is needed in the reproductive
stages today than was required in the crop 20 years ago. Basically, today’s corn hybrids up-take about
37% of their nitrogen needed for maximum corn production after the tassel
growth stage.
So,
assuming a 160 bu/ac yield target for corn and a 1.0 lb of nitrogen rate
required per bushel of yield goal, the nitrogen need from late July to late
September in our corn crop is about 60 lbs/ac of nitrogen. With significant potential for above average
rains in the early half of the growing season in our region, it should make
sense that we explore some of our options if we are not conducting a side-dress
corn application in season.
https://vegcropshotline.org/article/nitrogen-loss-from-wet-soils/
Product
Spotlight – Instinct™
Instinct™ is Corteva’s® long standing nitrogen stabilizer with Optinyte® technology. A new Instinct™ formulation named “Instinct NXTGEN™” is available this autumn to mix and apply with dry spread granular urea (46-0-0), UAN (32% or 28%) and even liquid manure. The Optinyte® bacteria inhibit soil bacteria from converting the nitrogen source to NO3- (nitrate). Nitrate is the most leachable form of nitrogen, and the nitrate molecule is also the most easily targeted by soil bacteria for nitrogen conversion to nitrous oxide and/or nitrogen gas under water logged (low or no oxygen scenarios) to increase the amount of nitrogen loss through volatility (denitrification).
Different
formulations of Instinct™ have been on the market over the years and Corteva®
looks to have made another great improvement on the product with Instinct
NXTGEN™ to vastly improve the handling, mixing and flowability of the product.
https://www.corteva.us/.../crop-protection/instinct-nxtgen.html...
If
you prefer to use NH3 (anhydrous ammonia gas) as your nitrogen source, Corteva®
has an Optinyte® formulation named “N-Serve™” to accomplish the same benefit with NH3 applications.
https://www.corteva.us/products-and-solutions/.../n-serve-24.html
CFAP –
Round 2 Potential
https://www.agprofessional.com/...cfap2-may-be-coming
USDA to Tighten Subsidy
Loopholes
I’m sure many
loopholes will remain, but the USDA published this Monday new regulation
limiting US government farm subsidy payments to individuals performing at least
500 hours of work annually. This requirement
will deserve over 12 weeks at 40 hours per week dedicated to the business. I’m not sure how the government is going to
track it, but if it’s implemented successfully, the policy is aimed at helping keep
family farms more economically stable and better able to compete with the larger corporate farms.
https://www.agriculture.com/...tightens-eligibility-rules-for-farm-subsidies
Illegal
Pesticide Seizures – European Union
At
times, agriculture can have its fair-share of shady deals, but the business
doesn’t seem to reek of large-scale corruption.
However, over in Europe, authorities are continuing to target and seize illegal
pesticide volumes over the past five years and the problem is growing. Authorities estimate that criminal
trafficking generates an average of 70 eros per kilogram of pesticide while
impacting around 10-14% of the EU pesticide market.
The
abuse comes from illegally importing compounds that have been banned by the EU
(i.e. chlorpyrifos (Lorsban™)), and/or trafficking counterfeit or mislabeled products.
I’m
not sure about your business, but typically if someone wants to correct a
problem, and they truly dedicate time, effort and resources to solve the
problem, then the problem usually gets rectified and rectified fairly quickly. If this particular issue has a government
task force administered to targeting it, then why does the issue not follow a
typical trend of declining concern? Potentially,
a bigger corruption network than we may realize.
http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---35512.htm
Bullish
Glufosinate Market
With the ever-expanding landscape of glyphosate and other site of action resistant weeds across the world, AgNews placed an article together on forecasting the usage growth potential of glufosinate (Liberty™). To date, there are no documented cases of glufosinate weed resistance, but I have heard a report of a common waterhemp population overcoming the glutamine synthesis inhibitor (Group 10) this season in the southern US.
Glufosinate
accounted for approximately 3.2% of the global herbicide market in 2018,
generating about US$750 mil in value.
Genetically Engineered crops of canola, soybeans and cotton account for
most of the glufosinate usage to date.
Forecasts
moving forward into the 2020 to 2025 time-frame have glufosinate growing at a
rate of 4.5% to 5.0%. Glufosinate usage
may increase above those predictions if paraquat and glyphosate continue to be
targeted by activist groups and banned from a growing number of countries. However, production capacity of glufosinate will
need to be increased if the usage growth is to be obtained.
http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---36366.htm
Random Agricultural Facts
Last week
we discussed the history around US corn planted and harvested acreage, and this
week, let’s continue the American farm history lesson with discussion around
average US corn price, national corn production volumes and national average
yields.
What is
the highest and lowest price your farm has received for a bushel of corn?
Well, the
USDA has records on this topic dating all the way back to 1866! The average price for corn in the year 1866
was $0.657/bu, but interestingly enough, it was over three times higher than
the price of corn farmers received 30 years later. The USDA historic low price for corn occurred
in 1896 at an average price for the year at $0.214/bu. The late 1910’s seen the corn price rise to
over a $1/bu with a high of $1.45 in 1918.
The early 1930’s brought the depression and the corn price bottomed to
$0.29/bu in 1931 and 1932. Besides 1947,
the average corn price never went over the $2/bu mark until 1973. Actually, the early 1970’s were turbulent
times for corn price volatility as the year 1971 had a paltry average corn
price of $1.08, then by ’73 it was $2.55, and ’74 seen a new record of $3.02 –
a price climb of close to 300% in just 3 years!
For US corn production, the year 2016 seen the greatest
volume of corn produced in the US at 15.15 bil bushels, and the USDA has
records on production dating all the way back to 1866. Would you have a best guess for total corn
production for the US in 1866? Well, it
was under a billion bushels at 731 million bushels with an average yield of
24.3 bu/ac that particular year.
Speaking of yields, on a US national average level, it was
very common to have 20-30 bu/ac yields from the 1860’s all the way through the
1930’s – basically the same consistent yield levels for 60-70 years! The dust bowl years of 1934 and ’36 seen corn
yields at their historic lows of 18-19 bu/ac.
But, by the 1940’s, hybrid corn seed was starting to become much more
common and yields consistently averaged in the 30 plus bu/ac range. This upward yield trend continued through the
1950’s, 60’s, and 70’s with the first triple digit average yield mark achieved
in 1978. The drought year of 1988 at
84.6 bu/ac for a national yield was the last time the US produced a corn crop
that did not average at least 100 bu/ac.
It’ll be interesting to see moving forward which year will have the
first US national corn yield over 200 bu/ac.
Before the derecho storm hit the heart of the Midwest in early August,
the USDA was predicting another new national corn yield record of over 180
bu/ac for the 2020 season.
Source: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/croptr19.pdf
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