“No need to feel sorry. Although his time was short, he had a great
life… he got to explore, chase squirrels, mark territory, and overall live the
life of freedom as he should.”
After continued conversation
with this farm manager, he went on to say when he was a grade school kid, a
neighbor in the area had a dog and whenever the school bus would stop there, or
he and his dad would drive by, the dog was always on a chain. And, when that dog died, they immediately got
another dog and that dog went on the chain as well. So, I asked, “How is that farm doing
today? How have they grown or prospered
over the years?” He didn’t reply, he
just looked at me and shook his head.
I’m sure many of you have experienced something similar over the years. As you work alongside your teams and other business partners in the industry, the more freedoms and responsibility allowed to empower employees and the numerous folks that help your business, the more they will enjoy their work. The farm business gets rewarded with more creativity, more efficiency, and more productivity. The individual workers themselves become more valuable as they help foster a positive culture for themselves and others to thrive. At the end of the day, the best business owners go to work because of their employees and the success they want them to enjoy.
Weather and Corn Development
Well, it’s great to see the sunshine and feel some heat on a consistent basis. After 4-5 days of such weather, most areas are seeing field activity pace continuing to increase. It looks like a warm week ahead too; if temps hold close to the forecast over the week, we should hit around 110-120 GDD’s over the 7-day span. It only takes corn approximately 120 GDD’s to emerge from planting, so crops will now emerge quickly.
The map above is rainfall over the past week.
I’ll count on your weather app for a best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from NOAA to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/...
This time frame is forecasted to have a slightly greater
chance of being above average for temperatures, while the precipitation
forecast is neutral to slightly greater chances for below average
precipitation. It would be ideal for
this stage of the spring to see a continuous 2-week planting window. We’ll see how the precipitation forecast
unfolds for this coming weekend.
Since we’re getting a bit of a late start to the majority of our corn and soybean planting this spring, it is worthy of taking a look at the Aug-Sept-Oct time frame for a long range 3-month outlook to try and see how the harvest season my look. This forecast from NOAA reveals equal chances for both above and below average precipitation over the time frame, but for temperatures, there is a significantly greater chance that we should experience warmer than average conditions. Overall, I’d say an optimistic outlook for the autumn.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4
The chart below
displays current soil temperatures today (Monday, May 18th) at 9 am
CDT from NDAWN. These temperature
reports are from bare ground (no residue).
Soil temperatures across the region have gained tremendously over the past several days. There are still some cool soil temps up in Bottineau area (with frost at 24”), but everywhere else, we should feel confident in planting corn and soybeans as field conditions allow. Expect some variability across a local region in soil temperatures due to residue cover, prior crop, fall tillage, drainage, soil moisture, and soil types.
Many fields across the region are still in what I would call “fair condition” for field work. There is a distinct difference between fair and good conditions… commodity prices are not strong enough to “mud it in and hope for the best” under fair conditions. Usually, Mother Nature gives us a good chance for success, we just need to be patient on some fields for a few more days.
I’ve had several questions over the past week on how long should we push for corn planting if conditions aren’t ready yet in our area. Well, these questions reminded me of a conversation years ago with a veteran corn farmer who made the statement, “it’s not the conditions in May or June that makes a corn crop, it’s the quality of planting in May, the rain in July, and the heat in August and September that makes a corn crop!”
It’s hard to predict the weather a few months out, but I’ll reiterate the insight mentioned earlier for NOAA’s insight (figure below) for temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) during the August-September-October time frame. I would think that if we can get corn planted in the next 7-10 day time frame, we will have a great chance for success.
Nationwide, the planting progress for corn and soybeans continues at a very strong pace. Currently, the USDA reports the nation at about 80% planted for corn (71% is the 5-yr average), and 43% of the planted corn has emerged (similar to the 5-yr average of 40%). For soybeans, 53% of the intended acres have been planted (38% is the 5-yr average), while only 18% of the soybeans have emerged (12% is the 5-yr average).
The USDA says spring wheat is 60% sown with the 5-yr average of 80% - so a continued slow start to the spring wheat sowing this particular season, but still in a good spot overall to have good yields and quality.
For North Dakota, the state is only reporting 20% corn, 9% soybeans, 41% spring wheat, 2% sunflowers, and 66% sugarbeets for completion of planting percentages as of Monday, May 18th.
A Tool for Prevent
Plant Calculation
I’ll keep this article as a hold-over in the newsletter from
last week for those still considering Prevent Plant acreage and how it may
impact the farm financials. If you would
like extra assistance in working through some precise examples for your
operation, please reach-out and contact Chris Barron with Ag View Solutions.
They have a nice spreadsheet available for calculating
Prevent Plant payment (free of charge).
Chris Barron mentioned to me that many growers have shared output from
this spreadsheet with landowners and bankers to assist with conversations
regarding key decision making as a difficult spring unfolds. Mr. Barron has asked that you contact him
directly as he’d like to assist in walking through the spreadsheet initially
before distributing a copy. Nobody is a
big fan of Prevent Plant, but sometimes the weather and markets force a guy to
consider every and all options. Chris’s
email address for such a request is: cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .
Pioneer
is a business within Corteva Agri-Sciences®, and last week Corteva® announced a
report to investors on their updated financial results and outlook from the
first quarter of 2020. The key bullet
points are outlined here and a weblink for additional insight.
- First quarter 2020 reported net sales were $4.0 billion, up 16% versus the year-ago period, with double-digit organic sales1 growth in every region.
- Seed sales rose 25% on a reported basis and 27% on an organic1 basis primarily due to increased corn deliveries in North America2 , coupled with strong sunflower and corn sales in Europe.
- Crop Protection sales improved 5% on a reported basis and 10% on an organic basis1 due to increased demand for new products globally, including Arylex™ and Enlist™ herbicides.
- Merger cost synergies for the three months ended March 31, 2020 totaled approximately $70 million, reflecting continued progress on productivity initiatives.
Everything looks good to start the year, but the stats will not reflect
any corn and soybean acre and subsequent seed need shifts the US is now
experiencing in certain geographies.
1. Organic
sales, Organic Growth (including by segment and region), Operating EPS, Pro
Forma Operating EPS, Operating EBITDA, and Pro Forma Operating EBITDA are
non-GAAP measures.
2. North America is defined as U.S. and Canada. EMEA is defined as Europe, Middle East and Africa.
2. North America is defined as U.S. and Canada. EMEA is defined as Europe, Middle East and Africa.
Product Spotlight – Enlist One™
Although there are two herbicide options for use in
over-the-top applications in Enlist-3® soybean production, most of the
retailers will be primarily carrying “Enlist One™”. This jug will contain only the 2,4-D choline,
and will be preferred since an applicator will have more flexibility with
tank-mix options with either glyphosate or glufosinate (Liberty™).
Corteva® is incentivizing the farmer to use a Corteva®
branded pre-emerge herbicide (Afforia™, EverpreX™, Sonic™, Surveil™, etc.) to
be applied in Enlist-3® soybeans.
Rebates are at the $2.00 to $2.50/ac value depending on the tank-mix
formulation utilized post-emerge. Please
contact your retailer, Corteva CP Territory Manager, or myself for additional
details.
Sony in Ag
Sony, the
electronics company, has decided to get into the agricultural field’s tech
sector with various collaborations.
Sony’s overall goal would be to enhance crop management decision making
with drones. Their first short-term
objective would be to accurately determine plant stand counts, crop growth
staging, and plant health status.
Once they
are successful on these first initial goals, then the second tier of management
would be to determine and implement in-season management zones for the
remainder of the year based on these initial observations for herbicide,
fungicide, fertility, etc.
In season
hail storms, killing frost, brittle-snap events, etc. could all lead to
increased variability across a field, and a need for re-evaluation. Sony has a goal of creating five-foot square
management zones to account for all weather-related events that may alter the
parameters of the cost/profit analysis.
Subsequent variable rate prescriptions will then be determined.
I’m not
sure of all the details but it sounds like it could be a bit cumbersome with drones
– even the large drones covering hundreds of miles in a single flight. I would think if some of these big-tech
companies could do more with enhancing satellite imagery, they would find the
efficiency increasing the most.
COVID-19 Update
I came
across an interesting research article related to the effectiveness of cloth
masks from the US National Library of Medicine, and the National Institute of
Health. This data was published back in
April of 2015 (data collected in 2011).
The study randomized over 1,600 healthcare workers in the country of
Vietnam (where more various viral human diseases are present) into three groups
– medical masks, cloth masks, and uncontrolled check (which included
individualized preferences in regards to mask usage).
Anyway,
the details are in the weblink below and it was interesting to see that cloth
masks were the least effective at reducing healthcare worker infection of
viruses. Each participant in the cloth
mask group had five cloth masks to rotate and wash over the 4-week trial. Medical masks were the most effective.
Brett Goodman Returns to North Dakota
Many of you may remember Mr. Goodman during his days with
Pioneer in the Grand Forks area back in 2011-2014. Brett has continued his career with Pioneer
over the years in the Kentucky and Tennessee southern US geographies, but
recently has decided to return to the Northern Plains.
Brett
will lead the Pioneer sales efforts for the entire state of North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota. Brett and his wife
are both from the region with family ties in Langdon as well as Hallock (wife).
Brett says his family are all excited to
move back to our area, reconnect with many friends, and shop for winter
survival gear!
Dicamba and Cancer? – Say it ain’t so!
Unfortunately, more poor news is hitting the Bayer® organization, and this time it’s about dicamba being linked to the increased risk of causing numerous cancers in humans. The findings come from the National Institute of Health after use of the growth regulator herbicide has climbed sharply due to the EPA approval of RR2Xtend® soybeans and dicamba use within that particular system in late 2016.
Unfortunately, more poor news is hitting the Bayer® organization, and this time it’s about dicamba being linked to the increased risk of causing numerous cancers in humans. The findings come from the National Institute of Health after use of the growth regulator herbicide has climbed sharply due to the EPA approval of RR2Xtend® soybeans and dicamba use within that particular system in late 2016.
The EPA
is getting an increased dose of scrutiny in this article from AgNews about
approving the use of dicamba on more widespread acreage. If the EPA begins to react to this heat from
fellow scientists, and it boils over to media sources and eventually US
Congressmen/women, we’ll see tighter scrutiny moving forward with pesticide
reviews and first-time allowances which are in the que for EPA approval. This may be fortunate for human health and
safety, but unfortunate if we want more tools at our disposal to protect crops
from yield robbing pests, and pesticide resistance.
At the
very minimum, I’d expect new technologies with dicamba to be shifted to other herbicide
platforms. This may affect the sugarbeet
industry as I’ve been told dicamba with glyphosate technology is set to come
into the sugarbeet crop in a couple 2-3 years.
In other
Bayer® news, the company has decided to settle court allegations that
disingenuous advertisements were implemented by Monsanto in regard to
glyphosate’s (Roundup®) potential health risks to mammals (including humans). This decision/settlement will cost Bayer $39.5
million. Bayer continues the process of
appealing glyphosate and cancer lawsuits, while at the same time trying to
reach a settlement in those cases to end the litigation and media attention. It has been speculated for some time now that
the settlement will cost Bayer between $10-12 billion.
Random Agricultural Facts – World Population
It’s interesting to note that the current population of China and India combined is greater than the next 20 countries on the list of highest populated countries on earth. The United States may have the world’s greatest technology sector, the most volume of agricultural output, and increasing manufacturing capabilities, but we have to make sure they not only service the great people of the USA, but also the people of China and India to create increased value and more demand for such products.
It’s interesting to note that the current population of China and India combined is greater than the next 20 countries on the list of highest populated countries on earth. The United States may have the world’s greatest technology sector, the most volume of agricultural output, and increasing manufacturing capabilities, but we have to make sure they not only service the great people of the USA, but also the people of China and India to create increased value and more demand for such products.
Another interesting note on this list
is the density of people per square kilometer in each country. You probably won’t find me retiring in
Singapore (8,358 people/km2) or Hong Kong (7,140 people/km2), but more likely
Australia (3 people/km2), Iceland (3 people/km2), or Western Sahara (2
people/km2). Needless to say, you’ll
find me somewhere in a small town finding a niche in the community.
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