"When the people fear
the government, there is tyranny;
When the government
fears the people, there is liberty.”
– Thomas Jefferson; 3rd
US President (1801-1809)
It would be easy to take this quote and relay it back to the current day atmosphere with COVID-19 and how the different US states are responding to re-opening their individual economies to the citizens. However, I’m going to take a different approach and relate it back to our Corteva® company values in placing the customer at the center of everything we do. Whether in government or in business or in anything in-between, if there is a focus on serving the people, and an unselfish attitude towards the process, there will be great rewards, enjoyment, and liberty gained along the way.
I’m sure many of you have experienced this yourself as you
work alongside many agricultural businesses that purchase product and services
from your operation. The closer everyone
works together to try and constructively solve problems that benefit all the
people involved, the more everyone will prosper at the end of the day.
Weather and Corn Development
Well, a full week of below average temperatures last week didn’t allow for much corn to be planted – or any other crops for that matter. Definitely, the sugarbeets and small grains are getting most all the seeding and planting attention up to this point in the spring if/when conditions are suitable. Hopefully, we can avoid any precipitation chances this week and get into the full swing of planting by the end of the week.
Speaking
of precipitation, the map above is the month of May precipitation accumulation
for the region. There are reports of
close to 2-3” of rain in some localized geographies and the outlook is dire for
much more than a few acres to get planted in these localized regions due to
roads being extremely soft and field access limitations coming into
consideration.
The
forecast for the week ahead looks to be cool with one or two nights of frost to
start the week (hopefully the last frost of the spring) and then some early to mid-60F
temps for Friday and the upcoming weekend.
If we are fortunate, we’ll gain around 20-25 GDD’s for this week. Let’s pray that the second half of May gives
us the heat we need.
I’ll count on your weather app
for a best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve
found this site from NOAA to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/...
This time frame is forecasted to
have a slightly greater chance of being above average for both temperatures and
precipitation. I like the temperature
forecast, but we need to stay dry to have the planters/air-seeders working
consistently in the region.
For a slightly longer forecast, a 3-month outlook from NOAA for the July-Aug-Sept time frame is available at the link below. This forecast shows equal chances for both above and below average precipitation, but the temperature outlook shows potential for above average heat in the later part of the summer/early autumn for the far Northern Plains. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/predictions/long_range/3...
Soil Temperatures and Corn Planting
We all know that corn likes a 50F or greater soil temperature and the first 48 hours of imbibing water close to that temperature is key for the young seedlings. The chart below displays current soil temperatures today (Monday, May 11th) at 8 am CDT. These temperature reports are from bare ground (no residue).
According to NNAWN, soil temperatures across the region have lost momentum over the past week (no surprise). Dickenson is currently the only location in the state reading near or above 45F soil temps in the top 24” of soil. Meanwhile, Adams is still reporting some frost at 24” depth. Expect some variability across a local region due to residue cover, prior crop, fall tillage, drainage, soil moisture, and soil types.
Corn needs about 120 GDD’s from planting to emergence (some hybrid differences will occur), but any corn planted after May 10th usually has a strong chance of emerging uniformly and producing a very nice plant stand. There is still value in understanding our corn hybrids and soybean varieties and their correlating cold stress/field emergence characteristic ratings. If you find opportunities to plant this week, please confirm your early planted hybrid/variety choices with your Pioneer Seed agency or myself.
There is a distinct difference between fair and good conditions… commodity prices are not strong enough to “mud it in and hope for the best” under fair conditions. Usually, Mother Nature gives us a good chance for success, we just need to be patient here for another day or two and allow some soil temps to build before we begin to run hard with the corn planting.
I had a great conversation via phone last week with Chris
Barron from Ag View Solutions. Even
during these tough agriculture times, his business is staying busy as farm managers
continue to show resiliency by reaching-out to other professionals and
requesting assistance in areas where the farm needs to improve. Chris and his team have a ton of experience
in helping farms create a clearer picture of their financial outlook and
utilizing tools and ideas for success that can be implemented over the
long-term.
Ag View Solutions also has a nice spreadsheet available for
calculating Prevent Plant payment (free of charge). Chris mentioned that many growers have shared
output from this spreadsheet to share with landowners and bankers to assist
with conversations regarding key decision making as a difficult spring
unfolds. Chris has asked that you
contact him directly as he’d like to assist in walking through the spreadsheet
initially before distributing a copy. Nobody
is a big fan of Prevent Plant, but sometimes the weather and markets force a
guy to consider every and all options. Chris’s
email address for such a request is: cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .
Planting Progress in the US
Nationwide, the planting progress for corn and soybeans continues at a very strong pace. Currently, the US sits at about 67% planted for corn (56% is the 5-yr average), and 38% planted for soybeans (23% is the 5-yr average). The states with over 70% of their corn planted include: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Texas, and South Dakota.
The USDA says spring wheat is 42% sown with the 5-yr average of 63% - so a continued slow start to the spring wheat sowing this particular season. Speaking of North Dakota, the state is only reporting 7% corn, 4% soybeans and 27% spring wheat for completion of planting percentages this week.
Within our Pioneer team, we had another national tele-conference at the end of last week to sum-up the planting progress to date around the lower 48 states. From eastern Colorado, through Nebraska, southern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and east, most of the corn (90-95% plus) is being reported as planted and probably 80-90% of the soybeans are in the ground as well. There is a wet region in east central Illinois through west central Indiana that is affecting planting progress, but they are around 60-70% complete with their corn planting.
The southeastern US region is slowing down on their corn planting and it sounds like they will only get in about 60-70% of their intended corn acres (about 6.7 mil acres forecasted in the March Planting Intentions report). That leaves the Northern Plains region. From northern South Dakota through the very southeastern portions of North Dakota they have seen some activity and currently sit around 25-40% planted with corn acres, and the remainder of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota would be less than 5% planted.
Many are speculating that North Dakota won’t see a million acres of corn this year, but we still have a solid couple week window to plant corn (through May 25th) and I would think that we should end-up closer to 1.5-2.0 mil acres of corn in the state if we can get rolling by May 15th (Friday this week). Last year in 2019, North Dakota had 3.7 mil acres, and this seasons March Planting Intentions report had the state pegged at 3.2 mil acres forecasted.
If you add up the losses across the country – the south, maybe 2-3% less corn across the greater Midwest and then the Northern Plains - we are in a position to see a record drop in actual planted acres for a season when compared to the March Planting Intentions report for corn. If you remember correctly, this season’s USDA March report had the US at 97 mil acres of corn forecasted and the prior record for fluctuation off the March Intentions was last season’s 3.1 mil acre drop due to the delay from excessively wet conditions.
Corteva’s CEO Jim Collins, stated in a Reuters article that internally, “our assumptions right now are that we could see a 5 to 7 million acre decline in corn” under the 97 million acre forecast from March’s USDA Planting Intentions report. Doing the math on the numbers, I would think 90-92 million corn acres in the US would be a best-case scenario. We’ll see how it plays out, but there isn’t much incentive to plant $2.50 local cash corn in the Northern Plains under our cool and wet conditions. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-corteva-results-idUSKBN22J2XG
China Imports of Pork Increasing Significantly
Reuters had an informative article last month on the amount
of pork currently being imported into China.
The country is still reeling from their hog herds being decimated, by up
to 40%, from African Swine Fever (ASF) over the past 12-15 months.
With the largest country population in the world at 1.44
billion people, the Chinese people consume the largest amount of pork meat (their
favorite meat protein source) than any other country. China’s pork meat imports have tripled in the
month of March 2020 (391,000 tonnes) compared to March 2019, and their pork
imports for the first quarter of 2019 (951,000 tonnes) are double what they
were in the first quarter of the year prior.
United States trade with China is improving as China has purchased over $5 billion worth of farm goods in the first quarter of this year. This would include 168k tonnes of US pork meat – a seven-fold increase in pork over the prior year for first quarter sales.
https://www.reuters.com/us-china-economy-trade-pork/...
COVID-19 May Lead Countries to “Agricultural Nationalism”
If this does pan-out as accurate over time, it places some added importance on the new USMCA trade agreement in North America. Currently, we are sitting with surplus supplies in the US and Canada and I’m sure our farm and livestock producers would relish the opportunity to export more agriculture commodity to help feed the world’s people if given the chance. If the US can begin dominating the export markets with our produce, we will have a chance of creating true demand for our farmers and commodity prices to rebound to consistently profitable levels.
Product Spotlight – Afforia®
Afforia® is a premix of flumioxazin (Valor®), thifensulfuron (Harmony®) and tribenuron (Express®). The thifensulfuron and tribenuron are both equal components of the commonly used Affinity BroadSpec®. The thifensulfuron and tribenuron are Group 2 ALS herbicides, while the flumioxazin is in the Group 14 PPO inhibitor herbicide class.
The formulation is a dry dispersible granule with a 2.5 oz/ac use rate. The herbicide is labeled for pre-plant or pre-emerge use only and field applications need to cease once the soybeans start cracking the soil upon emergence.
The weed control spectrum is fair to good with activity on some tough to control grass and broadleaf weeds like barnyardgrass, common lambsquarter, vol. canola, nightshades and pigweeds. It is commonly mixed in the tank with metribuzin (Sencor®) for enhanced broadleaf control for species like kochia and common ragweed.
There are minimal crop rotation restrictions with Afforia® (eight months or less to sugarbeets, corn, spring wheat, drybeans and potatoes) at the 2.5 oz/ac use rate. Obviously, tank mix partners may alter crop rotation restriction intervals.
To view the full Afforia® label: https://...amaxonaws.../DuPont_Afforia_Herbicide_Label2.pdf
Soybean Seeding Rates and Row Spacing - NDSU
Last week’s NDSU Extension’s Crop and Pest Report had a nice article on soybean seeding rates and row spacing by Hans Kandel and Peder Schmitz.
For row spacing, the NDSU research data reveals across 15 locations a 2.7 bu/ac advantage for the narrow 12” rows versus the wide 24” rows (Table 1 below). In general, I’d support this conclusion, but I’m sure the data comes from the same drill/air-seeder used for seeding both row widths.
On the
farm, the wider rows are accomplished with a planter, and many growers comment
on the efficiency and improvement of stands gained with a planter over an
air-seeder with more uniform emergence due to a more consistent seed
depth. Also, when we get into tougher
conditions like high salts, high IDC pressure, and/or soil crusting, more
seedlings within a row tend to push through the stress in stronger fashion. It would be interesting to see a similar
study, but with the implementation of an air-seeder for narrow rows and a
planter for the wider rows. My guess is
the yield difference under such a scenario would be much closer to the same and
probably insignificant.
In regard
to soybean planting populations, the NDSU researchers found that across the
same 15 locations, seeding rates of 140,000 seeds/ac and above all yielded
statistically similar. Seeding rates of
180k and 200k had statistically better yields than 120k seeding rate and
below. And lastly, seeding rates of 140k
and 160k were statistically higher yielding than an 80k seeding rate. As you can see, over a wide range (80k to
200k) in seeding rates, only about 4 bu/ac separate out the yield data (Table 2
below).
I
remember reading an NDSU research paper a couple years back stating that
established soybean plant stands of 135-140k plants/ac at harvest was optimum
for maximizing yield potential. In cases
where white mold (sclerotinia) is a concern, I do like the wider rows and lower
plant populations to allow more air movement in the canopy to assist in keeping
the micro-climate less humid and thus infection potential lower.
Also,
please note there is about a 10% loss (give or take a bit) from seeding rate to
harvest stand in this study, and I’d think that would be very representable
from an air-seeder. Planters should
provide slightly better emergence and ultimately less loss of stand over the
season when compared to an air-seeder.
Therefore, if our goal is to hit a 135k-140k plant stand at harvest, we need
to drop about 145-150k soybean seeds/ac to achieve the goal depending on
seedbed quality and seeding equipment type.
The USDA estimates food waste at
approximately 30-40% of the domestic food supply and has a goal of working with
the US EPA to reduce waste by 50% over the next 10 years. Several years back, I remember hearing this
food waste percentage at a level closer to 50%, so I would think with today’s
technology and efforts, we are slowly improving as a society in this realm.
So, how does the USDA and EPA figure
they will reduce food waste throughout the decade? First is by trying to limit production on the
types of food with high risk for spoilage or loss and second by feeding more of
the hungry people and animals within the country. I would think a third would be to find
quicker ways to consume food that has been identified as a high risk for
spoilage loss.
The following graphic outlines the USDA
/ EPA strategy for reducing food waste with the most preferred and valuable
strategies listed at the top of the inverted triangle. For additional insight: https://www.usda.gov/foodwaste/faqs
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