Feb. 1, 2021 Edition

 

“Hey Frank!  Do you have anyone on that bench that can guard me?  Because, no one out here can!” – Larry “Legend” Bird to the opposing head coach from the Utah Jazz

 

When Larry Bird got into the latter half of his career, it seemed like he got a little bored with just trash talking his opponents on the court, so instead of maybe slowing down on the verbal exchanges, he escalated his game by moving the targets of his trash talking to opposing coaches.  Frank Layden was known to have a jovial side to him, and supposedly, Frank just looked up and down his bench, and then calmly shrugged his shoulders and responded, “No”. 

I couldn’t find a reference to the exact game where this dialogue occurred, but I’ll give my best guess as the December 1987 contest in Boston where Bird led his team by connecting for 38 points on 14 of 25 shooting to go along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists in 42 minutes of action.  The Celtics went on to win the contest by a score of 121-111.  The young Utah Jazz team was just starting to find their groove at the time with their core players of John Stockton, Karl Malone, Mark Eaton and Thurl Bailey.  It was also Frank Layden’s last full year as a head coach in the league as Jerry Sloan took over for the Jazz 12 months later.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198712160BOS.html

What’s your plan for escalating your game in 2021?  It’s nice to see a little extra pep in everyone’s step as they look at these markets and see the opportunity that resides ahead in 2021 and hopefully beyond.  For all of us in agriculture, the winter time frame is perfect for starting to implement our strategy and vision on how we are going to improve our farm business for the upcoming season and benefit from those changes for many years to come. 

Everyone has ideas on how and where they would like to improve in their business.  Obviously, there are no right or wrong ideas and usually it’s not a single specific tool or product that brings a farm added success.  Many farms may look to traditional areas for improvement like production, agronomy, financials, machinery, but for others they may like to expand the horizons around networking, labor management, soil health or seeing how different operations execute their business.  Hopefully, the markets continue to provide some profitable opportunities so every farm operation can experiment with their own creativity to improve the overall business.

 

 

Regional Weather

Well, just like the saying goes… “if you don’t like the current weather, wait a day or two”!  Overall, it’s obviously been a mild winter, but now it seems like the trend is changing as we are experiencing some wide fluctuations.  This trend looks to continue for the week, making the second half of the winter most likely trend colder.   If the cold does brings some additional moisture, we would most likely be grateful.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the second full week of February, the forecast is to have greater chances of below average temperatures, and above average chances on the precipitation.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for the upcoming spring (Apr-May-Jun), it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

This forecast currently predicts equal chances on both the temperature and precipitation potential for our region.  Equal chances notes that the potential is equal for either above average conditions or below average conditions to develop.  Coming off our dry finish to the 2020 season and a dry autumn/early winter, hopefully we trend towards the above average conditions on the precipitation front.

Legend Seed® – Trait Changes

Legend Seed® is a regional seed company out of South Dakota with some representation in our area of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.  In “The Western Producer” out of Canada, they report their ag-industry will be witnessing some changes in regard to their local seed supply chains.  This will be due to the fact that Legend Seed will no longer have licenses to grow or sell corn or soybean products containing Bayer® (Monsanto®) traits (i.e. RR2Xtend® Round-up Ready2®, XtendFlex® Yield Guard Pro, etc.).

There was no statement provided by Legend Seed® nor Bayer® in the article as to why the agreement was terminated.  Nor was there any company insight on any business direction moving forward.  It is an interesting development to note, but unless this has some domino effects with other seed brands influenced by similar action from Bayer®, it should have fairly minimal consequences in our region.

https://www.producer.com/news/seed-company-inks-new-deals/

Enlist-3™ Training Opportunities

In today’s era of herbicide applicator training and on-line webinar learning opportunities, Corteva® is stepping to the plate to assist farms in being successful with their weed management strategies and tactics under the Enlist™ soybean cropping system.  During the winter months, this would be a great team activity for engagement for the farm work crew.  These training sessions are optional.  There are four upcoming dates to choose from, click below for more details and registration for the 60-minute training.

If you and the work crew are planning on getting together, inform your local Pioneer sales agent (or myself) and we’ll try to accommodate by being available to clarify any material and answer questions.  We may even have some merchandise to share!

https://engage.corteva.com/enlist-webinar-applicator-north-registration

If you and your partners are really into the on-line learning, Corteva is also making available an advanced series on Enlist strategies for farm managers, consultants and retailers.  This series is named “A Step Ahead”, and can be accessed at this site for registration (30 min sessions; one session per month through early spring):

https://engage.corteva.com/enlist-webinar-series-registration   

As usual, feel free to reach out to myself or your local Pioneer agent if you have questions.

Pioneer Providing Agronomy Webinars

Continuing with the on-line learning theme, Pioneer’s Agronomy Sciences team started an online webinar series last winter named “Forward Thinking Farming”.  The team is continuing the series in 2021 and have the first webinar available for recorded viewing.  These webinars dive into the subject matter fairly deep at times, but overall, they are very good at driving some thought and discussion around some of today’s most relevant production issues.  You can access last season’s webinar series (as well as this year’s first session – Nutrient Ratios in Corn Production) at the below website.  The topics are relevant for our region and I would at least encourage you to click on the site and see what may interest your farm business to drive productivity (yields) and ultimately profitability in 2021 and beyond.  The sessions are about an hour in length.

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy-science/webinars.html

NCGA Corn Yield Contest Winners

Right before Christmas, I had an article announcing the 2020 NCGA national yield winner for the season.  If you remember, the overall winner was a guy by the name of Don Stall from the state of Michigan.  Mr. Stall’s entry was in the “Conventional Irrigated Class” with a yield of 476.9 bu/ac.  Second overall and first place in the nation under “No-Till Non-Irrigated Class” was Dan Gause Sr. of South Carolina with a yield of 387.1 bu/ac.  Third place overall and first place in the “Conventional Non-Irrigated Class”, is Kevin Kalb of Indiana with 385.4 bu/ac.  The top two of these three national winners utilized Pioneer genetics to power towards their win with P0720AM and P1847VYHR respectively.  If you thought Mr. Kalb would be a DeKalb guy, you would be correct.  His winning entry was with DKC67-44RIB hybrid.

Locally here in North Dakota, there were no 300 bu/ac yield levels achieved, but we did see 286.6 bu/ac down in LaMoure with James Frauenberg (Strip, Min, Mulch, Ridge-Till Irrigated Class), and 280.2 bu/ac with Cody Frauenberg also of LaMoure (Conventional Irrigated Class).  Both of the Frauenberg’s utilized DeKalb genetics (45-65RIB and 42-05RIB respectively).  Pioneer genetics took the top three spots in the only non-irrigated class of state entrants – Conventional Non-Irrigated.  Frank Steger (Wahpeton), Cara Meyers (Colfax) and Jason Richtsmeier (Hunter) were the winners at 252, 245 and 219 bu/ac respectively in this class.

Over on the Minnesota side, they had three 300 bu/ac achievers – all in the “Conventional Non-Irrigated” class.  Roger Volz of Minnesota Lake just narrowly beat-out Justin Remus of New Ulm for the state’s winning entry.  Mr. Volz’s entry came in at 313.9 bu/ac which was less than half a bu/ac more than Mr. Remus’s yield.  If I remember correctly, an NCGA entry must be 1.1 ac of minimum total harvested area

Mr. Volz’s winning entry was with Pioneer’s P1366AM while Mr. Remus had a Beck’s Hybrids product (6049VT2P).

All of the national and state winners can be found at this website:

https://ncga.com/get-involved/national-corn-yield-contest

USDA Sunflower and Canola Production for 2020

The USA sunflower production numbers were announced with the January WASDE report.  Overall production volumes for 2020 were up over 50% compared to 2019, and the national yield was a record high in 2020 at 1790 lbs/ac.  Acres of sunflower were also up in 2020 over the prior year with 1.72 mil acres of sunflower planted.  The overall production is estimated at 2.98 bil pounds for the season.  As I mentioned in the summer, North Dakota supplanted South Dakota as the nation’s top sunflower producing state with over 625,000 acres (South Dakota was a very close second at 622,000 acres).

https://www.sunflowernsa.com/magazine/articles/...ArticleID=3936

The nation’s canola farmers also produced a record average yield level in 2020 at 1,913 lbs/ac across 1.789 mil harvested acres.  The harvested canola acre total was down slightly in 2020 versus 2019 (1.91 mil ac) and 2018 (1.943 mil acres), so the year’s overall production amount comes in second place all time at 3.455 bil lbs (2018 was first overall at 3.615 bil lbs).

https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/2B9BA4EF-B852-3D13-A2B4-62713A6E21E3?pivot=short_desc

Bullish Outlook for Ag-Commodities

The Farm Policy News out of the University of Illinois had a good article outlining the continued demand from China regarding US based ag-commodities.  Some analysist say that the bullish outlook will bring more acres into production in the short term as it will take 18 to 24 months for the supply coffers to re-stock and supply-demand logistics to balance out. 

Also to note, China has imported 200 mil gal of ethanol for the first half of the current marketing year.  The prior full year record from China on ethanol imports was 198 mil gal in 2016.  It looks like we should have continued market optimism through the remainder of the calendar year.

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu...unrelenting-chinese-demand-boosts...

Product Spotlight: Strip-tillage

With one of the key phrases in agriculture these days being “soil health”, and another trend towards evaluating strip-till, let’s review some of the agronomic and business ideas around the practice:

·         Alternative or additional way to apply nutrients (either in the fall or spring).  May be able to eliminate the broadcasting of dry fertilizer

·         Option of applying a cheaper source of nitrogen in NH3 (anhydrous)

·         Drastically minimizes soil and water erosion potential

·         Places applied nutrients in a zone more easily accessible by the crop plant

·         Removes soil compaction in the plant zone, but will probably allow for more vehicle traffic during wet periods as there is better soil structure between the rows or strips

·         Potential USDA programs available to aid the farm in purchasing or leasing a stip-till implement.  Contact your local NRCS office to converse about EQUIP and CSP resources.

The Univ. of Minnesota conducted a strip-till study and presented data by Jodi DeJong-Hughs here (4-year study): https://blog-crop-news.extension...

·         Spring soil temperatures in the strip are equal to or better than soil temperatures under a chisel plow or vertical tillage

·         Early growing season soil moisture showed driest in the strip, which may allow for earlier planting dates

·         Yields with coulter strip-till were better (but not statistically significant) than shank strip-till in 2015 and 2016 in corn and soybeans – Barney, ND and Fergus Falls, MN

Obviously, there are many different types of strip-tillage implements on the market today, and everyone will have some ideas on what they think is best for their primary soil types.  However, if you would like a recommendation to explore, I’ve seen a few operations in the area utilizing the “Soil Warrior” (which can be set-up in various combinations to create the desired type of strip-tillage zone).  These same operations have commented on the good customer support with the company, Environmental Tillage Systems, out of Fairbault, MN. http://www.soilwarrior.com/

Random Agricultural Facts – Groundhog Day

I’m not sure what a groundhog in Pennsylvania has to do with our weather here in the far Northern Plains, but it’s interesting to look at the history and accuracy of the Groundhog Day weather prediction.

If you are like me, you may have heard at one point “Punxsutawney Phil” was the Latin name for the groundhog species, but that is incorrect.  The groundhog is a marmot with the scientific name of Marmota monax.  https://www.britannica.com/animal/groundhog

The name “Punxsutawney Phil” comes from the small community in west-central Pennsylvania named Punxsutawney, and their famous groundhog with the given moniker of “Punxsutawney Phil”.  If you’re wondering of the origin of the name Punxsutawney… well the town was first settled by an indigenous tribe and the word “Punxsutawney” translates to “town of the sandflies” in their native dialect.

And, what about the date of February 2^nd?  Well, it’s the approximate halfway point of the winter solstice season.  With approximately 13 weeks of each solstice season during the calendar year, February 2^nd is a point where it’s only 6-7 weeks to the beginning of the spring equinox in the northern hemisphere.  The date has Christian roots as a day of feast of “Candlemas”.  In European tradition on this day, candles were brought to the local church for blessing and a folk song was enjoyed with a spring arrival reference.  The local German culture in Pennsylvania carried on the homeland tradition, expanded on it, and today we have what is known as Groundhog Day (without religious connotation nor candles). https://www.tripsavvy.com/dia-de-la-candelaria-1588765

Punxsutawney Phil was first tasked with predicting the upcoming spring weather in 1887, and the process remains fairly rudimentary today.  The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, of Punxsutawney, PA, takes care of Phil year-round, and on each Feb. 2^nd, members of the club's Inner Circle rouse Phil at sunrise to see if he casts a shadow.  Contrary to popular belief, Phil doesn't actually have to see his shadow; he just has to cast one to make his wintery prophecy.

If Phil does cast a shadow, the prediction will be for six more weeks of winter – basically lasting until the spring equinox in later March.

So, how accurate is Phil’s weather predication?  According to the Groundhog Club's records, the various incarnations of Punxsutawney Phil have predicted 124 forecasts: 104 forecasts of more winter and only 20 for an early spring.  If you compare Phil’s performance against actual weather outcomes since 1969 (when the accuracy of weather records is less in question), his overall accuracy rate is about 36 percent, according to Weather Underground.  However, when he predicts an early spring, the accuracy improves to just shy of 50%.

Lastly, what about the alternate name of “woodchuck” for a groundhog?  Well, it has nothing to do with wood, nor chucking it.  According to the Animal Diversity Web, groundhogs do not chew wood.  The word woodchuck comes from a Native American word, wuchak, which roughly translates to "digger".

https://www.tripsavvy.com/what-is-groundhog-day-2707298

Jan 18th, 2021 Edition

 

“Now suppose Ty Cobb was on second base and you knew he was going to steal third.  What would you do?”

“Oh, that’s easy!  I would call for a pitch-out, fake a throw to third, hold onto the ball and try to tag him as he slid home!”

Discussion between Connie Mack (the team manager) and his catcher Wally Schang

 

Ty Cobb was arguably one of the greatest baseball players of all-time, and was known in his early days for being hyper-aggressive in his style of play.  Often, Cobb would utilize his quickness and speed to score (or try to score) from second base on a ball hit to an in-fielder.  Ty Cobb was a feared base-stealer in his playing days and ended up with 897 career stolen bases.  Mr. Cobb had a 24-season career and only three players stole more total bases than Ty Cobb (Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock, and Billy Hamilton).  Ty is second on the all-time hits leader board with 4,189 (first is Pete Rose – 4,256), and Ty’s .366 career batting average is an all-time career record high.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbty01.shtml 

When you know the tendencies of some players, maybe a wild approach like Wally Schang envisioned, will sometimes be successful.  Many times, it’s not too difficult to get a good feel for the rhythm of an opposing player or a consistent task, however, thinking outside-the-box will usually lead to some good discussions and creativity that sometimes can be lacking in a business.  I’m not saying all out-of-the-box strategies are good, but going through the process and having the discussion with others in the industry or at least among key business partners is a worthwhile exercise that can lead to some creative ideas for further exploration and potential buy-in for everyone in your business partner team.

 The winter season is for planning and we all know how valuable it is for our businesses to make sure we are prepared for a prosperous upcoming growing season.  If you would like another set of eyes and ears on some of your planning, the Pioneer team is here to assist.  Please feel free to reach-out to myself and we can commit some time together with our local Pioneer field agronomist and/or explore some business parameters to improve efficiencies in the farm.  As the new year begins, we should all continue to strive for improvement in the things we can control in our business.

 

Regional Weather

Well, the weather continues to be variable, but the trend remains above average temperatures and below average precipitation – just like it has for the majority of the autumn and early winter.  This week is starting off on the cold side, but we should enjoy at least one day of above freezing temps again before the weekend.  Only the snowmobile and ski owners are a little grumpy that the winter has been so mild for snow volume.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the last full week of January, the forecast is to have greater chances of above average temperatures, and equal chances on the precipitation chances.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for the upcoming summer (Jun-Jul-Aug), it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/...long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6

This forecast currently predicts equal chances on both the temperature and precipitation potential for our region.  Equal chances notes that the potential is equal for either above average conditions or below average conditions to develop.  If this holds true, I think most would relish a trend to more of a normal growing season.  Coming off our dry finish to the 2020 season and a dry autumn season, hopefully we trend towards the above average conditions on the precipitation prospects.

Interesting to note, most of the Midwest (and east) is forecasted for a growing season of both above average temperatures and precipitation.  It could set the stage for some interesting yield dynamics and subsequent market influence.

USDA’s WASDE Report Highlights

I could go through all the bullish news from last week’s WASDE report released by the USDA, but I think I’ll just provide the link and some interesting summary points.  The report was very bullish for soybeans and bullish for corn.  The markets responded like-wise last week.  However, the markets are down to start this week after the federal holiday on Monday (Martin Luther King).  I’m sure all of you are aware of the tightening supply dynamics we are currently under for corn and especially soybeans.

My personal take?  Well, let’s start with… how do we go from such extremes on the marketing spectrum in just a handful of months?  To me, there is more than just supply and demand influencing these markets and the large influence the China government has in supplying their economy and population.  I don’t know what to make of it entirely, but there is a lot of risk in the situation currently.  In times of market uncertainty, I go back to the recommendation of Mr. Ed Usset – reference the written marketing plan and keep the communication very open to all of the partners so everyone is on the same page.

The report for wheat was probably more neutral, but if corn and soybeans are going to buy all the acres, then I would think there will be some upside potential in wheat at a point later in the marketing year.  Winter wheat plantings are up 5% (1.6 mil acres) over last year, and most likely less of these acres will shift into corn or soybeans due to the developing and ongoing drought conditions in the western half of the country.

January WASDE highlights (primarily from Todd Hultman – DTN®):

·         Corn and soybean basis is the narrowest in 7-8 years

·         1^st quarter of the marketing year was a record high for both corn and soybean demand (4.805 bil bu corn; 1.762 bil bu soybeans)

·         China’s domestic markets reflect an average of US$11.18/bu for corn and US$18.32 for soybeans.  The very robust Chinese domestic corn price could be an indicator that supplies are tighter than the USDA forecasts.  Regardless, these prices highly favor corn plantings for the Chinese farmer this spring

·         Trader’s position (funds) on the corn are in record high volumes

·         Currently, corn is dependent on soybeans and thus vulnerable to downside correction

·         US soybean imports for the year are projected to move up from 15 mil bu to 35 mil bu – indicating that domestic supplies will continue to be very tight

·         Brazil and Argentina are unchanged for projected 2020/21 soybean production estimates despite the regions below average rainfall

·         Speculation as well as fundamentals are both driving the bullish market outlooks.

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0121.pdf

NDSU Weather Forecast – Daryl Ritchison

Mr. Ritchison was kind enough to provide his insights on the weather for our region at the last Prairie Grains Conference (December 2020).  Due to the event being virtual, his presentation has been posted on YouTube® if you are interested: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWsojhTlA2E&feature=youtu.be

Here are the key points he stressed for the area encompassing the NDAWN weather network area:

·         Long term – trending drier for the decade

·         Short term - colder than average temperatures are most likely possible for March and April

·         Summer 2021 looks to be slightly warmer than average, but not as warm as the 2020 season

·         The 2021 precipitation outlook looks to be average to drier than average with some local variability

·         The current weak to moderate La Nina will be shifting to neutral to slightly El Nino by the July-Aug-Sept timeframe

·         Most La Nina’s create a winter season of below average snowfall as well as slightly colder than average temperatures for the region

·         No prediction on the first autumn frost timeline potential

·         Next season, the NDAWN long-term 30-year average reports will shift -  from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020.  This will make the long-term averages trend wetter and probably cooler as a third of the long-term data (1980’s) is replaced by the weather we just finished experiencing (Jan. 1^st, 2011 to Dec. 31^st, 2020).

Glufosinate and Glyphosate Prices Rising in China

As of mid-December, the average domestic Chinese market price for glufosinate (Liberty®) and glyphosate is up between 32-37% over the prior six months.  This is supposedly due to supply concerns around both herbicide products.

Regarding glyphosate, China is the main producer in the world of glyphosate at over 700,000 tons (or ~165 mil gallons), but a price rise in the raw materials to make the herbicide is causing the supply shortage along with some flood impacts in areas that have affected physical production.  For glufosinate, there has been no new capacity in recent years despite the large increase in demand.  Also, some of the same raw materials used in glyphosate (like yellow phosphorous) are also used in glufosinate.  The ban on paraquat in many countries around the world has placed more sales into glyphosate and glufosinate and supply volumes have dwindled over the past few years as manufacturing has not been able to keep-up on the supply front.

Just to be on the safe side, I’d inquire about booking your intended needs of these two products for the year with your local ag supplier and take delivery on the product when you are able.  Supplies may be good in the US currently, but prices will probably go up in-season.  Good luck! 

http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---37569.htm

Product Spotlight: Corteva’s Granular Insights

Many of you with your Pioneer invoice have qualified for some acres of the farm to be enrolled for free into our Granular Insights app.  If you conduct your own crop consulting, or have a professional crop advisor assisting your farm, it would be valuable to enroll in the app that will basically provide another set of eyes on your fields.

Below are a couple items that set apart Granular Insights within the industry:

·         Scout Priority – Highlighting fields that have changed the greatest in a crop health index score over a set time period (usually 7 days) to direct field scouting efforts across the farm – saves time and effort

·         Setting Permissions – Share farm and field imagery with crop advisors and/or other partners in the farm operation

·         Three-meter resolution (best in-class) and new images provided almost daily if no cloud cover present.  Images greatly influenced by cloud cover are not made available

·         Agronomics and financials in one place!  Understand the ROI of your seeding rate decisions and relative maturity for yield performance. 

Random Agricultural Facts – PIK in the 1980’s

For those of us too young to remember the business culture in the 1980’s here is a reminder of the situation many of our farm families had to endure.  It is likely that the only time you have heard of the term “PIK” (Payment in Kind) or “PIK Program” was from older family members or neighbors who voiced their opinion on the topic.  Basically, the federal government program paid farmers to not produce a crop on a subset of the farm’s acres due to the large inventory of ag commodities (very similar to our recent times).

The first chart below shows the acreage that sat idled due to various farm programs since ‘78.  Since the mid ‘90’s, we have only seen the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in play, but in the 80’s we had other programs like PIK and “set-aside acres” that dominated the Farm Bill for acreage reduction programs.  As you can see from the second chart, the history of such programs in our country for removing farm production acres goes back to the New Deal era (1930’s).

One of the years that stand out in the first chart is 1983.  This was the first year of the PIK program, and coincidently, 1983 was also the low point for corn acre production in US history at 60.21 mil total acres for the season.  The USDA history goes back to the 1920’s on this website. https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/...

These programs were massive in size, as the PIK acres in 1983 totaled about 80 mil acres just by themselves (only recently has the US even planted that many acres of soybeans).  The PIK program only lasted two years, but paid out a total of $10 bil ($23 bil in 2019 dollar value). 

The acreage reduction programs declined in overall acres for the ’84 and ’85 seasons, but started trending upward in 1986 again as the CRP program started.  A combination of set aside and CRP had idled acreage back up towards 75-80 mil acres in ’87 and ’88.  Today’s CRP commitments still accounts for 20 plus mil acres of idled production.

Another thing to remember was the early 1980’s seen interest rates near 20%, making the idled acreage and subsequent payments welcome by many producers to help keep total input costs lower for the season.  Typically, these idled acres were on the low end of the production spectrum and a cover crop of winter wheat, oats, or rye was sown to control erosion, and maybe even provide some grazing in dry years.

It’s hard to say how these markets influenced ag commodity supplies and subsequent grain prices moving forward.  No one talks about the late 1980’s or 1990’s as strong commodity years.  Beside the run-up in corn prices during the spring of 1996, the 1990’s and early 2000’s were a continual struggle to obtain profitable farm and livestock balance sheets. 

Unfortunately, these programs did have an unintended flip side; rural communities were hit hard as less businesses were needed to support the farms, and less people were needed as labor on the farms.  With today’s communication technologies available, maybe there will be a shift back to folks seeing some value in rural America.  As usual, we’ll see!

https://aei.ag/2021/01/11/idling-acres-and-the-1980s..... https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/06/...reviewing-history.html  

Jan. 11, 2021 Edition

“One time Earl Campbell got flagged for ‘roughing the defense’ – true story.” – Houston Oiler fanatic

 

I couldn’t find a clip or story on the occurrence, so I’m not sure if this fan is accurate with his statement.  However, one thing is for certain – if any NFL offensive back could have been flagged for “roughing the defense”, it would have been Earl Campbell.  Earl’s career was fairly short (eight years), but he left a very impactful presence on the game with his run-you-over, punishing, and in-your-face style of rushing the football.  Many students of the game agree that Mr. Campbell was one of the all-time greats despite the fact the history record books are not full of his accomplishments (due to the shortness of his career).  Regardless, Earl Campbell rightfully earned his place in the NFL Hall of Fame, as well as in the hearts of many football fanatics!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CampEa00.htm

Many of our farm employees are seasonal workers and/or have short time spans on the farm as they move on in their own individual careers.  Despite this lack of longevity on the farm, these employees are immensely valuable year-in and year-out in driving efficiency within the business.  If you had a Hall of Fame wall in your headquarters for all the key employees over the years, I’m sure a few of the honorees probably had short careers. 

A big thank you goes out to all farm managers that provide employment opportunities to folks that are looking for new challenges, and/or looking to expand their passion around agriculture production.  I would also like to wish everyone good luck in continuing to source quality individuals to be a part of your employee team in 2021.

Regional Weather

Well, the weather continues to trend above average just like it has for most of the autumn and early winter.  Usually by mid-January, we’ll have a significant stretch of days with below zero daily minimums, but so far this winter, we have had only a small handful of such occurrences.  It’ll be nice to have some above freezing temperatures to enjoy this week.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the third full week of January, the forecast is to have greater chances of above average temperatures to the west and equal chances on the temps to the east.  The precipitation chances are split with greater chances of above normal precipitation for the western part of our region and equal chances to the east.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for the upcoming late winter and early spring season (Feb-Mar-Apr), it can be seen here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range...

This forecast currently predicts slightly greater chances of below average temperatures, and slightly greater chances on above average precipitation potential.  Most folks are looking for an early planting window, but I think we would all agree that an early planting window may not do much good unless we get some moisture to help replenish dry soils and provide some good conditions for field work and planting/sowing.

Interesting to note, most of the Midwest and east for this late winter/early spring forecast is predicted for greater chances of above average precipitation and above average temperatures.  It could set the stage for some delayed planting in the Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt.  As usual, it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.

More Dicamba Legal Concerns

In late December, dicamba became a legal target once again as a new lawsuit was filed in the 9^th Circuit Court (San Francisco) for the next attempt at preventing dicamba applications in soybeans. 

If you remember back to June 2020, this same 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the dicamba label (Engenia™, Xtendimax™, and Fexepan™), and the EPA had to step-in and state they are the legal ruling body on such pesticide decisions and gave reprieve until the end of July.  The plaintiffs in the suit that led to the June 2020 ruling were environmental farm groups (National Farm Coalition, Center for Food Safety, Center for Biological Diversity, and Pesticide Action Network), and are the same plaintiffs in this new lawsuit which challenges the EPA’s recent re-approval of the herbicide.

The EPA is the defendant in the lawsuit, but Bayer, BASF, and Syngenta have obvious interests with their targeted branded products of Xtendimax™, Engenia™, and Tavium™ respectively.  It’s difficult to predict how long it will take for this new lawsuit to build momentum in the appellate court, but I would think it would need to move unprecedently fast in order to affect soybean producer’s weed management decisions in the 2021 growing season.  For reference, the 9^th Circuit’s dicamba ruling in June 2020 came from the lawsuit that was originally filed in 2017.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag...sue-epa-new-dicamba https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/...petition-for-review-final_94254.pdf https://www.dtnpf.com/2018/11/27/new-dicamba-registration-complicates

Product Spotlight: Pioneer Product Advancements

The Pioneer sales team is just now getting our first looks (on paper) of our new hybrids and varieties that will be hitting the market for our region this coming growing season.  Many of these new products for corn, sunflowers, and canola will have very limited volumes for 2021 planting, but we should be able to garner more than a few bags for side-by-side comparisons (if you have interest).  Also, our Sales Rep team will have all these new hybrid products in our local strip trials for comparisons against other Pioneer products as well as key competitive products in the area.

On the other hand, Pioneer soybean variety advancements do have some significant supplies available for this spring’s planting.  Most of these new soybean products will be with the Enlist-3® herbicide system and range in relative maturity from 009 to 09 (and longer) for our area.  As the calendar moves through the winter and into the spring, myself and your Pioneer sales agent may inquire about placing a few of these units on your farm for some additional observations and performance feedback.  Thank you in advance for any potential cooperation.

The Pioneer team continues to provide many resources into our IMPACT testing protocol for advancement of new seed products for the company.  The IMPACT acronym stands for Intensively Managed Product Advancement Characterization Testing.  Our in-house Pioneer team contracts with farm managers throughout the region to secure a few acres for this research within a corn, soybean, and/or sunflower field (Pioneer’s canola IMPACT is exclusively conducted in the Canadian providences).  The same Pioneer team also conducts the planting and harvesting of these plots as well as any additional fertilizer and herbicide additions above what the farm producer would apply through the season. 

At the end of the day and after our products have been IMPACT tested for two consecutive seasons, we have the confidence in these new products to at least bring them to our customers for broad-acre testing to see if we can achieve the next level of yield enhancement.  If you are a current IMPACT co-operator or have had IMPACT testing on your farm in the past, thank you for your willingness to be a significant part of our trial advancement system.  If you have interest in such research being conducted on your farm, please reach-out to myself and/or your local Pioneer sales agent.

Dicamba

We’ve all seen or heard the news on the new dicamba regulations requiring Volatility Reducing Agents (or VRA’s) in 2021 regarding application in RR2Xtend® soybeans.  The VRA’s are now REQUIRED to be used when applying dicamba to RR2X soybeans.  For your winter planning needs, the following two products are approved: VaporGripXtra – 20 oz/ac and Sentris – 4-16 oz/acre

https://www.roundupreadyxtend.com/Documents....pdf  https://agriculture.basf.us...TechBulletin_Sentris_2020_highres....pdf

Agricultural Apps

Now that we’re long past the romance period of new apps on the mobile pocket device, it probably is a good time to review some of the better IT tools available to help provide key insight on our businesses.  Crop Life magazine felt it was worry of a full article in their publication, and portrayed their list of best agricultural apps for 2021. 

As you can see below, the “Pioneer Seeds” app made the list.  We continue to revise and re-tool the app to ensure that it hits the mark for more and more farm operations.  Please reach-out to me, or your local Pioneer sales agent for additional insight into planning and monitoring your operation’s fields for the coming growing season.  

https://www.croplife.com/editorial...best-agriculture-apps/#Tinsel/85301/1

Crop Protection Programs

The AgView Pitch with Shay Foulk (and Chris Barron) recently had a very informative podcast with a focus on the ag-chemical programs for the upcoming growing season.  Discussion occurred on the marketing programs outlined by FMC, BASF, Bayer, and Corteva.

If you would like more insight on Corteva’s crop protection offerings for 2021, please contact me and we can arrange a discussion with our local Corteva Crop Protection Territory Manager to put an efficient, and cost-effective plan of attack across the farm.  Most of these programs could be simpler, but if we take the time to work through them, they do provide some good incentives and quality products.

I’ll provide a link for the webcast and the .pdf summary document for quick reference.  Ben Blair from MaxAg provides the insight and the information.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cutting-through-the-fluff... https://57c0df7d-a347-4796-a8bf-f83c67efa9c9....pdf

Minnesota Dicamba Decision

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) has decided that it will follow the federal guidance of a June 30^th end date for dicamba application in RR2Xtend® soybeans.  If the crop growth stage of R2 (full flower) is obtained before June 30^th, then the crop growth stage would be the more restrictive application parameter.  The memorandum also states that applicator training will be provided by the dicamba manufacturers – however I read nothing on it being required for product purchase or application.  This move by the MDA gives soybean producers an additional 10 days for dicamba application in the season versus prior years.

The memo from the MDA can be viewed here: https://www.mda.state.mn.us/mda-announces-june-30-cutoff-date-dicamba-herbicide-2021

US-China Phase One Tracking

Well, to no surprise, China is lagging far behind its commitment to purchase US based products in the first year of the Phase-One agreement.  Reporting at the end of December (for 11 month totals – December reporting volumes not available yet) reveals that China has only purchased a little more than 50% of their total targeted volume, and within the agricultural goods sector, 52.9% of the target has been obtained.

It’s unclear how the failure by China to meet these targets will play-out in 2021 due to the undecided current US political landscape, but hopefully the trend of increasing China buying of US corn and soybeans will continue at a strong pace to aid our domestic commodity markets. 

China currently is the world’s leader in soybean imports as the country takes-in about 60% of global soybean trade.  It is forecasted that China will soon have a similar designation with corn and purchasing over 50% of the global corn exports.  It is reported that Chinese ag-commodity stockpiles have been dramatically impacted by the pandemic and the US-China trade war over the past couple three years.  Their national government looks to replenish these grain stocks to limit domestic price volatility and provide confidence to local animal producers.  Also, the Chinese hog production sector is rebounding from African Swine Fever quicker than expected and thus creating higher demand for animal feed than first anticipated.

It is forecasted that China will incentivize corn production in its main grain producing regions for the 2021 growing season.  Prior years have seen China with declining corn acres, but moving forward they look to reverse the trend.  If it’s true that the Chinese are seeing more demand for agriculture products and their stockpiles have been depleted significantly over the past couple years, then the future looks bright for continued better relations between the US and China and ultimately for the US ag-producer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-28/china-lags-u-s... https://farmpolicynews.illinois...phase-one-ag-targets-lag-but-u-s...

Dicamba Settlement Claim Period Begins

For the most part, significant dicamba injury onto non-RR2Xtend® soybeans in our region was fairly rare.  However, I do remember a few of the discussions and observations a few years ago were valid with concern. 

With a $400 mil settlement pot from Monsanto/Bayer available, farm producers may receive up to 100% of their financial yield loss claims (established with standard farming records).  The application period is now open and the deadline for submitting a claims package is May 28^th, 2021.

This website (https://www.dicambasoybeansettlement.com/) is the starting point for submittal.  Please feel free to forward the weblink to any fellow soybean producers who may have valid entitlements.  Good luck!

http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---37626.htm

Random Agricultural Facts – Christmas Trees

We may not think of the Christmas tree as a commodity farm product, but it’s actually a fairly large business with approximately 15,000 farms growing Christmas trees for a 26.2 million tree demand (2019 data).  With the average estimated price of US$77/tree, it equates to about a $2 bil business.

It is also estimated that 21.1 mil artificial (fake) trees were purchased in 2017 with an average price of $107 per tree.  Interestingly, the fake tree market in 2017 ($2.26 bil) was actually more valuable (and my guess more profitable) then the fir/pine tree market of 2019 ($2.0 bil).

Other interesting facts about Christmas trees:

·      *  Franklin Pierce was the first US President with a Christmas tree in the White House (1856)

·      * The first Christmas tree farm in the US started in 1901 in Mercer County, New Jersey with the planting of 25,000 Norway Spruce seedlings

·      *  These Norway Spruce seedlings were ready for harvest by late 1908 and customers came directly to the farm to purchase a tree ($1), watch the cutting, and take their tree home

·       * The average time from tree planting to harvest for Christmas trees is 7 years (range from 4-15 years depending on variety, weather, soil type, etc.)

·      *  Christmas trees are grown, produced and sold in each of the 50 states and the overall acreage is estimated at over 1 mil acres

·     *    The top five producing states for Christmas tree production are: Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

·       *  The trend is downward for live Christmas tree harvest numbers in the US over the years due to artificial trees.  For example, in 2018, there were 27.4 mil trees harvested compared to the 26.2 mil harvested trees in 2019).  (pickyourownchristmastree.org)

·       *  Agricultural Economic Insights (AEI) has data a bit different than PickYourOwnChristmasTree.org.  AEI estimates in the year 2002, that nearly 21 mil Christmas trees were harvested, while in 2017 the estimated harvest total was roughly 15 mil – a 27% decline

·       * For each Christmas tree harvested, there are three trees planted to replenish the supply

·       *  It is estimated that there are currently 350 mil Christmas trees growing at any one time during the calendar year

·       *  It is estimated that 80% of the worldwide artificial Christmas trees are manufactured in China.

http://www.pickyourownchristmastree.org/christmas_tree_statistics.php http://www.pickyourownchristmastree.org/traditions.php https://aei.ag/2019/12/23/three-u-s-christmas-tree-production-facts/