Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Feb. 1, 2021 Edition

 


Hey Frank!  Do you have anyone on that bench that can guard me?  Because, no one out here can!” – Larry “Legend” Bird to the opposing head coach from the Utah Jazz

 

When Larry Bird got into the latter half of his career, it seemed like he got a little bored with just trash talking his opponents on the court, so instead of maybe slowing down on the verbal exchanges, he escalated his game by moving the targets of his trash talking to opposing coaches.  Frank Layden was known to have a jovial side to him, and supposedly, Frank just looked up and down his bench, and then calmly shrugged his shoulders and responded, “No”. 

I couldn’t find a reference to the exact game where this dialogue occurred, but I’ll give my best guess as the December 1987 contest in Boston where Bird led his team by connecting for 38 points on 14 of 25 shooting to go along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists in 42 minutes of action.  The Celtics went on to win the contest by a score of 121-111.  The young Utah Jazz team was just starting to find their groove at the time with their core players of John Stockton, Karl Malone, Mark Eaton and Thurl Bailey.  It was also Frank Layden’s last full year as a head coach in the league as Jerry Sloan took over for the Jazz 12 months later.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198712160BOS.html

What’s your plan for escalating your game in 2021?  It’s nice to see a little extra pep in everyone’s step as they look at these markets and see the opportunity that resides ahead in 2021 and hopefully beyond.  For all of us in agriculture, the winter time frame is perfect for starting to implement our strategy and vision on how we are going to improve our farm business for the upcoming season and benefit from those changes for many years to come. 

Everyone has ideas on how and where they would like to improve in their business.  Obviously, there are no right or wrong ideas and usually it’s not a single specific tool or product that brings a farm added success.  Many farms may look to traditional areas for improvement like production, agronomy, financials, machinery, but for others they may like to expand the horizons around networking, labor management, soil health or seeing how different operations execute their business.  Hopefully, the markets continue to provide some profitable opportunities so every farm operation can experiment with their own creativity to improve the overall business.

 

 

Regional Weather

Well, just like the saying goes… “if you don’t like the current weather, wait a day or two”!  Overall, it’s obviously been a mild winter, but now it seems like the trend is changing as we are experiencing some wide fluctuations.  This trend looks to continue for the week, making the second half of the winter most likely trend colder.   If the cold does brings some additional moisture, we would most likely be grateful.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the second full week of February, the forecast is to have greater chances of below average temperatures, and above average chances on the precipitation.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for the upcoming spring (Apr-May-Jun), it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

This forecast currently predicts equal chances on both the temperature and precipitation potential for our region.  Equal chances notes that the potential is equal for either above average conditions or below average conditions to develop.  Coming off our dry finish to the 2020 season and a dry autumn/early winter, hopefully we trend towards the above average conditions on the precipitation front.



Legend Seed® – Trait Changes

Legend Seed® is a regional seed company out of South Dakota with some representation in our area of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.  In “The Western Producer” out of Canada, they report their ag-industry will be witnessing some changes in regard to their local seed supply chains.  This will be due to the fact that Legend Seed will no longer have licenses to grow or sell corn or soybean products containing Bayer® (Monsanto®) traits (i.e. RR2Xtend® Round-up Ready2®, XtendFlex® Yield Guard Pro, etc.).

There was no statement provided by Legend Seed® nor Bayer® in the article as to why the agreement was terminated.  Nor was there any company insight on any business direction moving forward.  It is an interesting development to note, but unless this has some domino effects with other seed brands influenced by similar action from Bayer®, it should have fairly minimal consequences in our region.

https://www.producer.com/news/seed-company-inks-new-deals/



Enlist-3™ Training Opportunities

In today’s era of herbicide applicator training and on-line webinar learning opportunities, Corteva® is stepping to the plate to assist farms in being successful with their weed management strategies and tactics under the Enlist™ soybean cropping system.  During the winter months, this would be a great team activity for engagement for the farm work crew.  These training sessions are optional.  There are four upcoming dates to choose from, click below for more details and registration for the 60-minute training.

If you and the work crew are planning on getting together, inform your local Pioneer sales agent (or myself) and we’ll try to accommodate by being available to clarify any material and answer questions.  We may even have some merchandise to share!

https://engage.corteva.com/enlist-webinar-applicator-north-registration

If you and your partners are really into the on-line learning, Corteva is also making available an advanced series on Enlist strategies for farm managers, consultants and retailers.  This series is named “A Step Ahead”, and can be accessed at this site for registration (30 min sessions; one session per month through early spring):

https://engage.corteva.com/enlist-webinar-series-registration   

As usual, feel free to reach out to myself or your local Pioneer agent if you have questions.



Pioneer Providing Agronomy Webinars

Continuing with the on-line learning theme, Pioneer’s Agronomy Sciences team started an online webinar series last winter named “Forward Thinking Farming”.  The team is continuing the series in 2021 and have the first webinar available for recorded viewing.  These webinars dive into the subject matter fairly deep at times, but overall, they are very good at driving some thought and discussion around some of today’s most relevant production issues.  You can access last season’s webinar series (as well as this year’s first session – Nutrient Ratios in Corn Production) at the below website.  The topics are relevant for our region and I would at least encourage you to click on the site and see what may interest your farm business to drive productivity (yields) and ultimately profitability in 2021 and beyond.  The sessions are about an hour in length.

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy-science/webinars.html

NCGA Corn Yield Contest Winners

Right before Christmas, I had an article announcing the 2020 NCGA national yield winner for the season.  If you remember, the overall winner was a guy by the name of Don Stall from the state of Michigan.  Mr. Stall’s entry was in the “Conventional Irrigated Class” with a yield of 476.9 bu/ac.  Second overall and first place in the nation under “No-Till Non-Irrigated Class” was Dan Gause Sr. of South Carolina with a yield of 387.1 bu/ac.  Third place overall and first place in the “Conventional Non-Irrigated Class”, is Kevin Kalb of Indiana with 385.4 bu/ac.  The top two of these three national winners utilized Pioneer genetics to power towards their win with P0720AM and P1847VYHR respectively.  If you thought Mr. Kalb would be a DeKalb guy, you would be correct.  His winning entry was with DKC67-44RIB hybrid.

Locally here in North Dakota, there were no 300 bu/ac yield levels achieved, but we did see 286.6 bu/ac down in LaMoure with James Frauenberg (Strip, Min, Mulch, Ridge-Till Irrigated Class), and 280.2 bu/ac with Cody Frauenberg also of LaMoure (Conventional Irrigated Class).  Both of the Frauenberg’s utilized DeKalb genetics (45-65RIB and 42-05RIB respectively).  Pioneer genetics took the top three spots in the only non-irrigated class of state entrants – Conventional Non-Irrigated.  Frank Steger (Wahpeton), Cara Meyers (Colfax) and Jason Richtsmeier (Hunter) were the winners at 252, 245 and 219 bu/ac respectively in this class.

Over on the Minnesota side, they had three 300 bu/ac achievers – all in the “Conventional Non-Irrigated” class.  Roger Volz of Minnesota Lake just narrowly beat-out Justin Remus of New Ulm for the state’s winning entry.  Mr. Volz’s entry came in at 313.9 bu/ac which was less than half a bu/ac more than Mr. Remus’s yield.  If I remember correctly, an NCGA entry must be 1.1 ac of minimum total harvested area

Mr. Volz’s winning entry was with Pioneer’s P1366AM while Mr. Remus had a Beck’s Hybrids product (6049VT2P).

All of the national and state winners can be found at this website:

https://ncga.com/get-involved/national-corn-yield-contest



USDA Sunflower and Canola Production for 2020

The USA sunflower production numbers were announced with the January WASDE report.  Overall production volumes for 2020 were up over 50% compared to 2019, and the national yield was a record high in 2020 at 1790 lbs/ac.  Acres of sunflower were also up in 2020 over the prior year with 1.72 mil acres of sunflower planted.  The overall production is estimated at 2.98 bil pounds for the season.  As I mentioned in the summer, North Dakota supplanted South Dakota as the nation’s top sunflower producing state with over 625,000 acres (South Dakota was a very close second at 622,000 acres).

https://www.sunflowernsa.com/magazine/articles/...ArticleID=3936

The nation’s canola farmers also produced a record average yield level in 2020 at 1,913 lbs/ac across 1.789 mil harvested acres.  The harvested canola acre total was down slightly in 2020 versus 2019 (1.91 mil ac) and 2018 (1.943 mil acres), so the year’s overall production amount comes in second place all time at 3.455 bil lbs (2018 was first overall at 3.615 bil lbs).

https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/2B9BA4EF-B852-3D13-A2B4-62713A6E21E3?pivot=short_desc



Bullish Outlook for Ag-Commodities

The Farm Policy News out of the University of Illinois had a good article outlining the continued demand from China regarding US based ag-commodities.  Some analysist say that the bullish outlook will bring more acres into production in the short term as it will take 18 to 24 months for the supply coffers to re-stock and supply-demand logistics to balance out. 

Also to note, China has imported 200 mil gal of ethanol for the first half of the current marketing year.  The prior full year record from China on ethanol imports was 198 mil gal in 2016.  It looks like we should have continued market optimism through the remainder of the calendar year.

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu...unrelenting-chinese-demand-boosts...



Product Spotlight: Strip-tillage

With one of the key phrases in agriculture these days being “soil health”, and another trend towards evaluating strip-till, let’s review some of the agronomic and business ideas around the practice:

·         Alternative or additional way to apply nutrients (either in the fall or spring).  May be able to eliminate the broadcasting of dry fertilizer

·         Option of applying a cheaper source of nitrogen in NH3 (anhydrous)

·         Drastically minimizes soil and water erosion potential

·         Places applied nutrients in a zone more easily accessible by the crop plant

·         Removes soil compaction in the plant zone, but will probably allow for more vehicle traffic during wet periods as there is better soil structure between the rows or strips

·         Potential USDA programs available to aid the farm in purchasing or leasing a stip-till implement.  Contact your local NRCS office to converse about EQUIP and CSP resources.

The Univ. of Minnesota conducted a strip-till study and presented data by Jodi DeJong-Hughs here (4-year study): https://blog-crop-news.extension...

·         Spring soil temperatures in the strip are equal to or better than soil temperatures under a chisel plow or vertical tillage

·         Early growing season soil moisture showed driest in the strip, which may allow for earlier planting dates

·         Yields with coulter strip-till were better (but not statistically significant) than shank strip-till in 2015 and 2016 in corn and soybeans – Barney, ND and Fergus Falls, MN

Obviously, there are many different types of strip-tillage implements on the market today, and everyone will have some ideas on what they think is best for their primary soil types.  However, if you would like a recommendation to explore, I’ve seen a few operations in the area utilizing the “Soil Warrior” (which can be set-up in various combinations to create the desired type of strip-tillage zone).  These same operations have commented on the good customer support with the company, Environmental Tillage Systems, out of Fairbault, MN. http://www.soilwarrior.com/








Random Agricultural Facts – Groundhog Day

I’m not sure what a groundhog in Pennsylvania has to do with our weather here in the far Northern Plains, but it’s interesting to look at the history and accuracy of the Groundhog Day weather prediction.

If you are like me, you may have heard at one point “Punxsutawney Phil” was the Latin name for the groundhog species, but that is incorrect.  The groundhog is a marmot with the scientific name of Marmota monaxhttps://www.britannica.com/animal/groundhog


The name “Punxsutawney Phil” comes from the small community in west-central Pennsylvania named Punxsutawney, and their famous groundhog with the given moniker of “Punxsutawney Phil”.  If you’re wondering of the origin of the name Punxsutawney… well the town was first settled by an indigenous tribe and the word “Punxsutawney” translates to “town of the sandflies” in their native dialect.

And, what about the date of February 2nd?  Well, it’s the approximate halfway point of the winter solstice season.  With approximately 13 weeks of each solstice season during the calendar year, February 2nd is a point where it’s only 6-7 weeks to the beginning of the spring equinox in the northern hemisphere.  The date has Christian roots as a day of feast of “Candlemas”.  In European tradition on this day, candles were brought to the local church for blessing and a folk song was enjoyed with a spring arrival reference.  The local German culture in Pennsylvania carried on the homeland tradition, expanded on it, and today we have what is known as Groundhog Day (without religious connotation nor candles). https://www.tripsavvy.com/dia-de-la-candelaria-1588765

Punxsutawney Phil was first tasked with predicting the upcoming spring weather in 1887, and the process remains fairly rudimentary today.  The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, of Punxsutawney, PA, takes care of Phil year-round, and on each Feb. 2nd, members of the club's Inner Circle rouse Phil at sunrise to see if he casts a shadow.  Contrary to popular belief, Phil doesn't actually have to see his shadow; he just has to cast one to make his wintery prophecy.

If Phil does cast a shadow, the prediction will be for six more weeks of winter – basically lasting until the spring equinox in later March.

So, how accurate is Phil’s weather predication?  According to the Groundhog Club's records, the various incarnations of Punxsutawney Phil have predicted 124 forecasts: 104 forecasts of more winter and only 20 for an early spring.  If you compare Phil’s performance against actual weather outcomes since 1969 (when the accuracy of weather records is less in question), his overall accuracy rate is about 36 percent, according to Weather Underground.  However, when he predicts an early spring, the accuracy improves to just shy of 50%.

Lastly, what about the alternate name of “woodchuck” for a groundhog?  Well, it has nothing to do with wood, nor chucking it.  According to the Animal Diversity Web, groundhogs do not chew wood.  The word woodchuck comes from a Native American word, wuchak, which roughly translates to "digger".

https://www.tripsavvy.com/what-is-groundhog-day-2707298






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