Monday, February 15, 2021

Feb. 15th, 2021 Edition


“... you know what’s wrong with this team?  We don’t have any team play.  We don’t care about each other.  Let me give you an example.  Tonight, I had 48 points with two minutes to go.  Did anybody pass me the ball so I could get 50?  Huh?  No, they just kept the ball to themselves and I got stuck at 48.  Stuff like that; that’s what’s wrong with these guys.” – Marvin Barnes, St. Louis Spirits of the ABA

 

Although you and I chuckle, once you hear some of the stories about Mr. Barnes there isn’t any question to the sincerity of this quote – he was dead serious!  The American Basketball Association (ABA) was known to have some eccentric characters in its day and Marvin Barnes was definitely one of those folks.  Barnes was quite the talent as he was the ABA’s Rookie of the Year recipient for the 1974-75 season with averages of 24.0 points and 15.6 rebounds per game.  Marvin also was an ABA All-Star for his first two years in the league.  After the 1975-76 season, the ABA merged with the NBA and Marvin’s theatrics couldn’t find a consistent home let alone consistent playing time.  Unfortunately, the St. Louis Spirits continually strove to have Mr. Barnes’s immense talent be the face of the franchise, but with his awful selfish behavior they were never able to develop the culture of a winning tradition for the business.  Marvin’s poor choices both on and off the court led to immense frustration by everyone around him – teammates, coaches, front office personnel, and I’m sure even his close family and agents.  When the ABA merged with the NBA, the St. Louis franchise did not survive, and the city has not seen professional basketball since.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/barnema01.html

If you’re looking for a good winter time read, and are interested in a little entertainment as well as a historical perspective on the business of professional basketball from the late 1960’s to the mid 70’s, “Loose Balls” by Terry Pluto will not disappoint.  https://www.amazon.com/Loose-Balls-American-Basketball-Association/dp/141654061X

The business world today is similar to the game of basketball where it takes team play and a willingness to include others to experience success.  If we expand on this thought for our significant farm businesses in the region, we understand that farm operations with a strong employee team and a willingness to partner with other key businesses in the local area seem to more easily develop success.  I’ve even seen smaller farms – with only 2-3 people involved in the whole business – conduct a very profitable enterprise with a commitment to good communication internally as well as with others who they rely upon to help their farm succeed.

At the end of the day, the better team any business is able to build within and around them, the better success everyone will enjoy.  You may see some short-term value in negotiating for that last nickel or dime on the cost of a farm input item or an employee’s salary, but if the value is there and the business or individual is providing a quality product, service, and /or labor in return, those extra dollars are fairly inexpensive and the money should be viewed as well spent.

 


Regional Weather

Well, that was probably the coldest weekend my family has spent in Grand Forks in our 10 years of being residents.  I’m sure we are all looking for the above zero temperatures later this coming week.  Hopefully, we’ll start a slow warm-up from here and looking at spring conditions in the not too distant future.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week). 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the last full week of February, the forecast is to have greater chances of above average temperatures, as well as above average (west) to equal chances (east) on the precipitation front for our region.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for next season’s harvest run (Sept-Oct-Nov), it can be seen here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=8

This forecast currently predicts above average to equal chances on the temperature potential, along with equal chances for precipitation in our region.  Overall, if that holds true, we would welcome the developments and hope to accomplish significant additional tasks besides just the harvest.



Dicamba Formulations for 2021 RR2Xtend® Soybeans

I  had a few questions after last week’s newsletter regarding Fexepan™ from Corteva® as an approved dicamba formulation for use in dicamba tolerant soybean production.  In a nutshell, Corteva® is anticipating renewal registration being granted by the EPA any day now for the 2021 season and beyond.  Corteva® has an agreement with Bayer® to market the formulation (Fexepan™ has the exact same components as Bayer’s® Extendimax™) and therefore Corteva® is obligated to follow Bayer’s® lead regarding the registration of the product.  Extendimax™ obviously received federal approval back in October, and that triggered the Corteva® team to begin the process for Fexepan™.  All the paperwork has been submitted to the EPA from Corteva® regarding Fexepan™, and it should be an easy approval for the EPA to make, but for some reason it is taking longer than anticipated – probably typical under a change of executive branch which the EPA reports directly through. 

With Xtend® acres forecasted to be down this year in the US, there should be plenty of dicamba product available this summer – regardless of the EPA delay regarding Fexepan™.  I will keep you posted on any further developments when they do occur. 



Planter Maintenance

It’s that time of year where the planters are going through the shop for their yearly maintenance.  Precision Planting placed together a very thorough website on the topic and has included several short videos (all under 5 min; many under 2-3 min) on the key items for monitoring to insure the planter will be performing at top-notch come this spring.

Some key items for winter maintenance and in the field adjustments:

·         Parallel arm bushings – make sure the row unit does not have too much play from right to left or up and down in a resting position.  Replace the bushings on one row unit and then compare other rows to the newly rebuilt unit if you are unsure

·         Seed tubes – worn seed tubes can affect kernel spacing.  Often the seed tube becomes damaged (tip and sides of the tube) due to worn disc openers and/or worn seed tube guards.

·         Seed tube guard – should be at minimum 3/4” wide to start the season.  New guards are approximately 15/16” wide

·         Disc openers – Always check the maintenance guide for the specific model, but most discs are 15” in diameter new and should be replaced at 14.5” in diameter.  Disc shims should be utilized to have a consistent 1.5-2” of contact at the point of furrow creation

·         Meter calibration – seals and brushes are common wear items inside the meter along with worn seed plates that can cause inconsistent seed spacing.  Research on inconsistent plant spacing has shown significant yield reductions.  Individual meter calibration should be performed yearly to ensure a consistent seed drop performance from row to row across the planter

·         Planter bar height – in the field, most planter models will need to be set around 20-22” height (bottom of bar to the soil surface).  Parallel arm bushings should run parallel or horizontal in relation to the planter bar and row units

·         Downforce setting – there are risks of too much (extra soil compaction) and too little down force (dry soil crumbles back into the trench creating poor seed to soil contact, shallow seed placement, and/or inconsistent soil moisture for germination).

https://www.precisionplanting.com/agronomy/research/your-planter-maintenance-guide



EPA and Amazon.com

The EPA office in Seattle has issued a “stop sale” order to Amazon.com for many illegal pesticides they have been marketing.  The most common ways that a pesticide can lose its EPA approval status is through the following avenues (vast majority of cases): 1) de-registration, 2) adulteration of the formulation after the original formulation was granted EPA approval, and/or 3) misbranding – false, unproven, or misleading claims about the product which are added to the label after approval.  Some products may become available illegally by never being submitted to the EPA for registration (actually somewhat common).

Many of the products outlined in the “stop sale” order are disinfectants or antibacterial formulations with mis-branding claims around “CoronaVirus protection”, “Safe for Kids”, “Safe for family and pets”, “Kills 99.9% of harmful bacteria”, etc.  Other products on the list lack an EPA registration number.

A few of the products on the list are insecticides for mosquitoes, spiders, ants, and other bugs, plus a few are rodenticides for mice and rats. 

I don’t think Amazon is yet in the business of selling broadacre agricultural pesticides, but this is a good reminder for the safety of our employee teams and family (plus pets) to buy these types of products from reputable businesses with recognizable brand names.  The tad bit extra the established brands may charge for their product is easily justifiable for extra assurance and safety.  When it comes to on-line purchases for agricultural pesticides, it’s probably worth your time to ask for labels of considered products and cross-reference with the EPA.  This should help insure that products have been EPA tested and thus should perform as intended.

https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/ssuro-amazoncom...june-10-2020 http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---38040.htm



Product Spotlight: The Weed Zapper!

Last summer I heard a bit about machines in local fields using electricity to kill weeds – primarily in sugarbeet and dry edible bean fields.  “The Weed Zapper” is a USA based company investing in the technology. 

It’s a two part implement with the electric generator on a trailer hitch for towing behind the tractor (I assume runs off PTO), along with a front mounted boom for easy sight and maneuverability.  Supposedly, the generator provides up to a 15,000-volt experience for killing targeted plants.

Successful Farming had an article on the efficacy of the device based on some preliminary research from the University of Missouri.  Their findings report the pros and cons:

·         Research and observations were on soybeans with waterhemp as the primary targeted weed species

·         Electrocution was instantaneous to every plant the boom made contact with.  It was rare, but there was unintended contact with the crop and yields were reduced (10-15% depending on the growth stage of the crop when the kill occurred).  I would assume some yield loss was due to the addition of late season wheel traffic as well

·         Taller weeds that portrayed above the canopy were more susceptible – especially if they had some good leaf area for the electric boom to contact.  Generally speaking, broadleaf weeds were more susceptible than grass weeds

·         Smaller weeds at the time of initial application were not controlled – a second pass would typically be warranted

·         Not all crop competition would be eliminated as applications would be made mid to late season to provide time for weeds to gain height

·         Operator safety was a concern.

Overall, The Weed Zapper isn’t going to be a first line defense against resistant weed populations, but used in combination with a strong herbicide program, it should help significantly reduce weed seedbank populations.

https://theweedzapper.com/ https://www.agriculture.com/crops/soybeans/the-mizzou-weeds...



Product Spotlight (2): P7844AM


Well, I thought I would try to delay until closer to planting the introduction of our key new Pioneer products for the season, but I may run out of time between now and then, so let’s get started.  Pioneer’s earliest corn hybrid advancement for the upcoming season in our region will be P7844AM.  It’s a 78 RM (relative maturity) product with above average trait characteristics for good late season standability. 

For a quick review, Pioneer rates their products on a 1-9 scale with 9 being the best/strongest/tallest.  Average characteristic performance scores are typically 4’s and 5’s; below average is 3, and above average strength would rate 6 to 7.  It is fairly rare to see a commercially advanced product with a score of 8, but it does happen.  Most all products that would rate below a 3 on any given single agronomic score would not make it through the process to become a commercially available, but those numerical scores are utilized in our research program.

All of the other traits for this particular hybrid rate adequate/acceptable, so it’ll be interesting to see how this hybrid performs for the summer against P7861AM, P7632AM, and P7527AM.  Our internal data says that it should easily out-compete those established benchmark products, but that data only comes from our IMPACT testing system which covers two years and numerous small replicated plots.  The IMPACT system is great for testing and advancing products as the system builds confident statistical data sets, but us field agronomists like to see a product across several acres and through some more widely variable conditions – sandy soil types (added drought and fertility stress), high pH soils, heavy clay soils (stress emergence), water logged conditions, etc. to get a true feel for the genetic yield and performance potential.  We’ll have a few units of this hybrid available this spring, so please reach-out to myself and/or your local Pioneer agent if you would like to see some P7844AM on your farm this spring.



China’s Pork Production

Since the vast majority of China’s imported soybeans are processed for animal feed, the topic is important to review.  Therefore, let’s take a dive into the numbers we are hearing regarding China’s hog production recovery from African Swine Fever (ASF). 

As I’m sure you are well aware, ASF had an outbreak in China a couple years ago (summer of 2018) that caused a quick reduction and culling in their domestic pig herds (40-50% plus by most estimates).    If you do a quick internet search today on the topic, you’ll find many articles talking about a quick recovery.  Here’s one such article stating, “as of Nov. 30, 2020, China’s swine herd recovery was seen at 90% of the pre-ASF levels”.  https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/...

Well, if you dive into some of the Chinese numbers, you begin to question how strong their swine herd rebuilding actually is.  First, pork inputs into China compared to the historic past are still at record volumes through to the very end of 2020.  Second, China’s domestic pork prices are still about twice the long term average (see charts below).




There are some additional concerns in China as well regarding the overall status of the swine herd.  Foremost, their Ministry of Agriculture has recently highlighted concerns on their ability to gather confident domestic statistics.  Also, swine disease concerns are not fading completely away – ASF outbreaks are still occurring in some limited scope, and reports of significant foot and mouth disease are also present.  Many comments have also been shared about questioning the genetic quality of the rebuild as they have witnessed smaller litter sizes and less efficient weight gains – documented with lighter slaughter weights.

https://www.mintecglobal.com/...china...global-pork-imports-in-2021

https://www.thomaseldermarkets.com.au...why-i-dont-trust-chinese...

Mark Twain would say, “if you torture the numbers enough, they’ll confess to anything”.  In today’s world of conflicting news, I’d just prefer to say that we should keep a very open mind to the developing situation and insure that we utilize our marketing plans with sound strategy to make profitable decisions.



Random Agricultural Facts – PIGS

Speaking of pigs, it is believed that pigs were the first domesticated animal on the planet and it occurred about 6000 years ago… Any guesses to the location??  Present day China!

Pigs first came to America around 1540 with the Spanish explorer de Soto.

Over 2 billion pounds of bacon are produced for US consumption annually.  At a population of close to 340 million people, the average US person (man, woman, and child) consumes close to 6 pounds of bacon per year!  In China, the per capita pork consumption is 90 lbs per person annually (or 0.25 lbs/day/person).

Sows have a gestation period of just under 4 months (114 days).  And, while the average litter size worldwide is only 6-10 piglets, an American sow will average around 10-13 due to genetics and nutrition.  Most sows will have 3-4 liters per 2-year timeframe. 

For more facts and figures around hogs: https://realpigfarming.com/15-trivia-winning-facts-about-pigs-6ab00f2d1049





Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Feb. 8, 2021 Edition

 


“To me, there are three things everyone should do every day.  Number one is laugh.  Number two is think.  And, number three is to spend some time in thought; your thoughts should have your emotions move you to tears.  If you laugh, think and cry, that's a heck of a day.  You do that seven days a week, you're going to have something special.” – Jim Valvano, North Carolina State men’s basketball coach

It’s that time of year where we continue to have full days even with the dead of winter staring us in the face.  However, with today’s conveniences, it’s somewhat easier to prosper through most of these issues, as well as the cold winter weather spells.  In this regard, I often wonder what our ancestors of even 2-3 generations back would say if they could experience a week in our world of today.  Would they think all of today’s conveniences are good for the body, mind and soul?

Hopefully, your full days are enlightening as we continue to develop our plan for setting the stage to have a successful upcoming cropping season.  I would guess that most operations are placing the final pieces of their labor and machinery line-up into the equation and are moving onto field by field planning for crop inputs like fertilizer, hybrid/variety, and herbicide/fungicide programs. 

I’ll give a quick shout-out here to Corteva’s Granular ag-software program that can help your planning be much more precise, easy to implement, and effortlessly provide that in-season record keeping for key analysis at the end of the year.  Please reach-out to myself or your local Pioneer sales agent to learn more.  www.granular.ag


Regional Weather

You would have to travel a fair distance outside our region if you are looking to escape the sub-zero temperatures.  It’s nice that at least the sun is shining bright to provide us that optimism we are all looking for.  I did hear one older (wise?) farmer this week say that it takes a significant cold spell like we are currently experiencing during the winter to help insure our spring and summer rains occur on a somewhat relevant and consistent level.  I’m not sure of the accuracy of such a statement, but the last mild winter we had was the 2011-12 winter and we did struggle for widespread rains in the 2012 growing season.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the third full week of February, the forecast is to have greater chances of below average temperatures, as well as below average chances on the precipitation front.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for the upcoming summer (Jun-July-Aug), it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/...long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

This forecast currently predicts equal chances on both the temperature and precipitation potential for our region.  Equal chances notes that the potential is equal for either above average conditions or below average conditions to develop.  If that wise farmer is correct, we should trend to the side of a bit more precipitation than average coming our way.  Coming off our dry finish to the 2020 season and a dry autumn/early winter, it would be more than welcome!


Dicamba Regulations for 2021 Soybeans

Unfortunately, we will have more regulations during the upcoming growing season regarding spraying dicamba herbicide formulations on RR2Xtend® soybeans.  One such area of increased regulation will be regarding “endangered species” and subsequent additional buffer protections.

In the map below (see pic and reference weblink), the pink shaded areas in North Dakota and Minnesota will have these extra restrictions in play to protect federally listed, threatened, and endangered species.  Basically, in our region, the affected areas will be Polk and Clay counties of Minnesota, and for North Dakota, it’ll encompass the counties of Stutsman, McHenry, Bottineau, McLean, and Ward in the I-94 and north geographies.   For dicamba herbicide applications to be legal in these areas, both a 310-foot in field wind-directional spray drift buffer, and a 57-foot omnidirectional in-field buffer are required. 

The following areas may be included in the buffer distance composition when directly adjacent to the treated field edges: 1) Roads, paved or gravel surfaces, mowed grassy areas adjacent to field, and areas of bare ground from recent plowing or grading that are contiguous with the treated field. 2) Planted agricultural fields containing dicamba-resistant plantings of cotton and soybeans. 3) Areas covered by the footprint of a building, silo, or other man-made structure with walls and/or roof.

www.epa.gov/endangered-species/bulletins-live-two-view-bulletins

I did try to find the specific endangered species that we are targeting protection towards in these areas, but I was not successful.



Dicamba On-line Training Available

Speaking of dicamba regulations, it’s that time of year for the mandatory annual dicamba training for pesticide applicators.  Here is the site to register and conduct the on-line training:  https://training.roundupreadyxtend.com/

After reviewing the FAQ (frequently asked questions) document by the EPA regarding dicamba applications (updated in late 2020), there are several other key bits of information that all farm managers should have knowledge towards regarding dicamba applications in RR2Xtend® soybean production: 

·         On-farm labor personnel who apply or handle dicamba products for application in soybeans must be certified applicators

·         Certified applicator training is different than dicamba training.  Both trainings are required by all labor personnel involved in dicamba applications

·         Non-certified personnel may not perform any activities with dicamba products – including handling, mixing, loading,  and purchasing

·         Training will include addressing new restrictions on buffer distances and adjuvants/drift reducers.  Other established regulations will be reviewed

·         Generic dicamba formulations are not registered for use in RR2Xtend® soybeans.  Today, only XtendiMax™, Engenia™ and Tavium™ (with metolachlor from Syngenta®) are registered for use.  Generic formulations have much greater risk potential around drift and volatility.

The EPA’s FAQ: https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/dicamba-training-requirements....


Corn Starter Fertilizer

Most corn planter set-ups in our region do have a hardware system installed for in-furrow (over the top of the seed) liquid starter fertilizer application.  A typical fertility mix will contain 10-34-0 or other source of phosphorus along with some zinc as their base starter fertilizer components in corn production. 

For a quick review, the research data supports this practice in our region.  Here are the top three reasons: 1) the corn crop has more uniform and consistent early growth, 2) concentrated amounts of fertilizer are easily accessible and more plant available in our high pH and often cold spring soils by the corn plant, and 3) achieve faster dry-down rates compared to corn trials without starter fertilizer.  Add it all up and the return on investment is positive.

https://www.ndcorn.org/corn-technically-speaking-starter-fertilizer/

This is good, but it should stimulate another question – are we getting the most out of our starter fertilizer equipment investment?  Or, more specifically what other nutrients should we be testing for a response in our corn production after Phos. and Zn? 

Well, the local Pioneer Field Agronomy teams have been collecting tissue samples in our NCGA state entry trials.  The data is presented below.  As you can see, Zn still shows up “Below Range” in over half the entries.  Boron is “Below Range” in 2/3rds of the samples and Potash (K) is “Below Range” in over 50% of the samples.  Now most tissue testing results are expressed in a percentage or parts per million (ppm) concentration.  Aluminum, copper, calcium, and magnesium also test “Below Range” at a rate of 25% or greater in this small sampling of data across the region. 


As you can see, there were two different growth stages for the tissue testing across three different hybrids and only 6 sample sites, so the data set is fairly small to start, but we’ll add on it in the future.   if you are looking for some extra ideas on your farm to drive productivity and profitability, and you can make a bit of room in your starter fertilizer mix for some additional micronutrients, I would highly consider exploring options here.  It should be fairly easy to implement – finding of a source of liquid micronutrients and conducting a test of both with and without across a few different fields this planting season.  If you’d like, please contact me or your local Pioneer sales rep and maybe we can even conduct some tissue testing this summer to aid in our findings.

https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/publications/crops/north-dakota-fertilizer-recommendation-tables-and-equations


Product Spotlight: Drone Swarms

We often always think that “bigger is better”, but when it comes to drones and agricultural uses, maybe “more is better”.  Rantizo is a US based company focused on drone/UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) solutions for agriculture producers.  Last summer, Rantizo was granted approval by the FAA (US Federal Aviation Administration) for operating a swarm of drones with one pilot and one visual observer in all locations of the contiguous 48 US states. 


Rantizo states that they can spray between 40-60 acres per hour with their swarms, but I’m sure that target is always gaining in efficiency.  They also have a dry spreader attachment for their fleet for broadcast applications of cover crop seeds, dry fertilizer blends and even dry pesticides.

Their services include bringing a team to your farm to conduct field applications, as well as helping your farm prepare and conduct application of crop protection products with UAV’s. https://rantizo.com/

This technology will probably take some time to develop, but my guess is that efficiencies will be gained, technology simplified, and regulations reduced to where these applicator UAV’s are fairly common on the farm.  Maybe the aerial applicators will embrace the technology and aid in the shift towards more unmanned applications to lower the human risk for everyone.

https://www.croplife.com/precision/rantizo-authorized-to-swarm-multiple-drones-nationwide-by-faa/

 

Random Agricultural Facts – History of Cropland Acre Expansion

Let’s step back and take a look at the last 50-60 years of global cropland acreage expansion and the USA’s or North America’s contribution to the topic.  I wish I could have found some raw USDA data or other source(s), but I’m sure this type of data is would be very tedious to compile.  Therefore, I’ll just trust the Agriculture Economic Insights (AIE) folks for accuracy (reference below).

As we evaluate the cropping acre history, AIE just kept it at the 13 major crops – corn, soybeans, wheat, rapeseed (canola/mustard), barley, cotton, millet, oats, peanuts, sunflower, rice, rye and grain sorghum.  From 1960 to 2020, harvested acreage increased about 45% (from 1.7 bil acres to 2.4 bil acres, or 742 mil acres – chart below).  But, as you can see, the data doesn’t reveal a consistent yearly addition of acreage, but a somewhat bullish expansion during the 1960’s and 70’s and then flat-lining during the 1980’s and 90’s before accelerating again from 2002 onward. 

A couple weeks ago, we discussed the US Farm Bill culture of the 1980’s and 90’s with programs like PIK (Payment In Kind) and set-aside acres.  Those programs contributed greatly to the global leveling-off period of crop acre expansion after a just completed significant rise during the 70’s (next chart).  The North American region led the world in crop acre expansion during this time frame (1970-1980) with over 74 mil additional harvested acres of these 13 major crops coming into production.  The world seen an increase of 269 mil acres and each region of the planet contributed to the increase.  North America’s contribution calculates to about 27.5% of the global increase during this period. 


Since 2002, China’s food demand has increased sharply and the ethanol boom occurred to place enhanced value in ag-commodities to stimulate another era of acre expansion.  However, this time around, other parts of the world led the charge.  The overall acre expansion was similar in size to the 1970’s with approximately 279 mil acres (versus 269 mil ac) increase in overall harvested acres.  North America accounted for about 7.2% of this expansion growth.  The regions of South America (26.2%), Sub-Saharan Africa (24.4%), East Asia (15.8%), the former Soviet-Union (14.7%), and South Asia (7.9%) all had more harvested acre growth expansion than the USA.  It’s also interesting to note that the European Union and “Rest of World” decreased their contribution in this regard.


As we try to look forward and think about the next era of crop expansion, it’s hard to fathom what will incentivize the growth (who would have predicted in the 90’s that ethanol would help fuel the next ag-boom?).  To me, it will probably be a factor of several things – more demand will arise due to both a desire for better diets and increased population.  But, several questions remain… How will bio-fuels impact future cropping decisions?  Will the trend shift from crop acre expansion to livestock expansion?  How much will technology and thus increased productivity off-set demand?  Which countries will lead the charge?  Will people take a greater interest in producing their own food?

Whatever the answers, we’ll have a front row seat in the coming decades to witness it all!

https://aei.ag/2021/02/01/global-acreage-expansions-old-and-new...




Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Feb. 1, 2021 Edition

 


Hey Frank!  Do you have anyone on that bench that can guard me?  Because, no one out here can!” – Larry “Legend” Bird to the opposing head coach from the Utah Jazz

 

When Larry Bird got into the latter half of his career, it seemed like he got a little bored with just trash talking his opponents on the court, so instead of maybe slowing down on the verbal exchanges, he escalated his game by moving the targets of his trash talking to opposing coaches.  Frank Layden was known to have a jovial side to him, and supposedly, Frank just looked up and down his bench, and then calmly shrugged his shoulders and responded, “No”. 

I couldn’t find a reference to the exact game where this dialogue occurred, but I’ll give my best guess as the December 1987 contest in Boston where Bird led his team by connecting for 38 points on 14 of 25 shooting to go along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists in 42 minutes of action.  The Celtics went on to win the contest by a score of 121-111.  The young Utah Jazz team was just starting to find their groove at the time with their core players of John Stockton, Karl Malone, Mark Eaton and Thurl Bailey.  It was also Frank Layden’s last full year as a head coach in the league as Jerry Sloan took over for the Jazz 12 months later.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198712160BOS.html

What’s your plan for escalating your game in 2021?  It’s nice to see a little extra pep in everyone’s step as they look at these markets and see the opportunity that resides ahead in 2021 and hopefully beyond.  For all of us in agriculture, the winter time frame is perfect for starting to implement our strategy and vision on how we are going to improve our farm business for the upcoming season and benefit from those changes for many years to come. 

Everyone has ideas on how and where they would like to improve in their business.  Obviously, there are no right or wrong ideas and usually it’s not a single specific tool or product that brings a farm added success.  Many farms may look to traditional areas for improvement like production, agronomy, financials, machinery, but for others they may like to expand the horizons around networking, labor management, soil health or seeing how different operations execute their business.  Hopefully, the markets continue to provide some profitable opportunities so every farm operation can experiment with their own creativity to improve the overall business.

 

 

Regional Weather

Well, just like the saying goes… “if you don’t like the current weather, wait a day or two”!  Overall, it’s obviously been a mild winter, but now it seems like the trend is changing as we are experiencing some wide fluctuations.  This trend looks to continue for the week, making the second half of the winter most likely trend colder.   If the cold does brings some additional moisture, we would most likely be grateful.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the second full week of February, the forecast is to have greater chances of below average temperatures, and above average chances on the precipitation.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for the upcoming spring (Apr-May-Jun), it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/.../long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

This forecast currently predicts equal chances on both the temperature and precipitation potential for our region.  Equal chances notes that the potential is equal for either above average conditions or below average conditions to develop.  Coming off our dry finish to the 2020 season and a dry autumn/early winter, hopefully we trend towards the above average conditions on the precipitation front.



Legend Seed® – Trait Changes

Legend Seed® is a regional seed company out of South Dakota with some representation in our area of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.  In “The Western Producer” out of Canada, they report their ag-industry will be witnessing some changes in regard to their local seed supply chains.  This will be due to the fact that Legend Seed will no longer have licenses to grow or sell corn or soybean products containing Bayer® (Monsanto®) traits (i.e. RR2Xtend® Round-up Ready2®, XtendFlex® Yield Guard Pro, etc.).

There was no statement provided by Legend Seed® nor Bayer® in the article as to why the agreement was terminated.  Nor was there any company insight on any business direction moving forward.  It is an interesting development to note, but unless this has some domino effects with other seed brands influenced by similar action from Bayer®, it should have fairly minimal consequences in our region.

https://www.producer.com/news/seed-company-inks-new-deals/



Enlist-3™ Training Opportunities

In today’s era of herbicide applicator training and on-line webinar learning opportunities, Corteva® is stepping to the plate to assist farms in being successful with their weed management strategies and tactics under the Enlist™ soybean cropping system.  During the winter months, this would be a great team activity for engagement for the farm work crew.  These training sessions are optional.  There are four upcoming dates to choose from, click below for more details and registration for the 60-minute training.

If you and the work crew are planning on getting together, inform your local Pioneer sales agent (or myself) and we’ll try to accommodate by being available to clarify any material and answer questions.  We may even have some merchandise to share!

https://engage.corteva.com/enlist-webinar-applicator-north-registration

If you and your partners are really into the on-line learning, Corteva is also making available an advanced series on Enlist strategies for farm managers, consultants and retailers.  This series is named “A Step Ahead”, and can be accessed at this site for registration (30 min sessions; one session per month through early spring):

https://engage.corteva.com/enlist-webinar-series-registration   

As usual, feel free to reach out to myself or your local Pioneer agent if you have questions.



Pioneer Providing Agronomy Webinars

Continuing with the on-line learning theme, Pioneer’s Agronomy Sciences team started an online webinar series last winter named “Forward Thinking Farming”.  The team is continuing the series in 2021 and have the first webinar available for recorded viewing.  These webinars dive into the subject matter fairly deep at times, but overall, they are very good at driving some thought and discussion around some of today’s most relevant production issues.  You can access last season’s webinar series (as well as this year’s first session – Nutrient Ratios in Corn Production) at the below website.  The topics are relevant for our region and I would at least encourage you to click on the site and see what may interest your farm business to drive productivity (yields) and ultimately profitability in 2021 and beyond.  The sessions are about an hour in length.

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy-science/webinars.html

NCGA Corn Yield Contest Winners

Right before Christmas, I had an article announcing the 2020 NCGA national yield winner for the season.  If you remember, the overall winner was a guy by the name of Don Stall from the state of Michigan.  Mr. Stall’s entry was in the “Conventional Irrigated Class” with a yield of 476.9 bu/ac.  Second overall and first place in the nation under “No-Till Non-Irrigated Class” was Dan Gause Sr. of South Carolina with a yield of 387.1 bu/ac.  Third place overall and first place in the “Conventional Non-Irrigated Class”, is Kevin Kalb of Indiana with 385.4 bu/ac.  The top two of these three national winners utilized Pioneer genetics to power towards their win with P0720AM and P1847VYHR respectively.  If you thought Mr. Kalb would be a DeKalb guy, you would be correct.  His winning entry was with DKC67-44RIB hybrid.

Locally here in North Dakota, there were no 300 bu/ac yield levels achieved, but we did see 286.6 bu/ac down in LaMoure with James Frauenberg (Strip, Min, Mulch, Ridge-Till Irrigated Class), and 280.2 bu/ac with Cody Frauenberg also of LaMoure (Conventional Irrigated Class).  Both of the Frauenberg’s utilized DeKalb genetics (45-65RIB and 42-05RIB respectively).  Pioneer genetics took the top three spots in the only non-irrigated class of state entrants – Conventional Non-Irrigated.  Frank Steger (Wahpeton), Cara Meyers (Colfax) and Jason Richtsmeier (Hunter) were the winners at 252, 245 and 219 bu/ac respectively in this class.

Over on the Minnesota side, they had three 300 bu/ac achievers – all in the “Conventional Non-Irrigated” class.  Roger Volz of Minnesota Lake just narrowly beat-out Justin Remus of New Ulm for the state’s winning entry.  Mr. Volz’s entry came in at 313.9 bu/ac which was less than half a bu/ac more than Mr. Remus’s yield.  If I remember correctly, an NCGA entry must be 1.1 ac of minimum total harvested area

Mr. Volz’s winning entry was with Pioneer’s P1366AM while Mr. Remus had a Beck’s Hybrids product (6049VT2P).

All of the national and state winners can be found at this website:

https://ncga.com/get-involved/national-corn-yield-contest



USDA Sunflower and Canola Production for 2020

The USA sunflower production numbers were announced with the January WASDE report.  Overall production volumes for 2020 were up over 50% compared to 2019, and the national yield was a record high in 2020 at 1790 lbs/ac.  Acres of sunflower were also up in 2020 over the prior year with 1.72 mil acres of sunflower planted.  The overall production is estimated at 2.98 bil pounds for the season.  As I mentioned in the summer, North Dakota supplanted South Dakota as the nation’s top sunflower producing state with over 625,000 acres (South Dakota was a very close second at 622,000 acres).

https://www.sunflowernsa.com/magazine/articles/...ArticleID=3936

The nation’s canola farmers also produced a record average yield level in 2020 at 1,913 lbs/ac across 1.789 mil harvested acres.  The harvested canola acre total was down slightly in 2020 versus 2019 (1.91 mil ac) and 2018 (1.943 mil acres), so the year’s overall production amount comes in second place all time at 3.455 bil lbs (2018 was first overall at 3.615 bil lbs).

https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/2B9BA4EF-B852-3D13-A2B4-62713A6E21E3?pivot=short_desc



Bullish Outlook for Ag-Commodities

The Farm Policy News out of the University of Illinois had a good article outlining the continued demand from China regarding US based ag-commodities.  Some analysist say that the bullish outlook will bring more acres into production in the short term as it will take 18 to 24 months for the supply coffers to re-stock and supply-demand logistics to balance out. 

Also to note, China has imported 200 mil gal of ethanol for the first half of the current marketing year.  The prior full year record from China on ethanol imports was 198 mil gal in 2016.  It looks like we should have continued market optimism through the remainder of the calendar year.

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu...unrelenting-chinese-demand-boosts...



Product Spotlight: Strip-tillage

With one of the key phrases in agriculture these days being “soil health”, and another trend towards evaluating strip-till, let’s review some of the agronomic and business ideas around the practice:

·         Alternative or additional way to apply nutrients (either in the fall or spring).  May be able to eliminate the broadcasting of dry fertilizer

·         Option of applying a cheaper source of nitrogen in NH3 (anhydrous)

·         Drastically minimizes soil and water erosion potential

·         Places applied nutrients in a zone more easily accessible by the crop plant

·         Removes soil compaction in the plant zone, but will probably allow for more vehicle traffic during wet periods as there is better soil structure between the rows or strips

·         Potential USDA programs available to aid the farm in purchasing or leasing a stip-till implement.  Contact your local NRCS office to converse about EQUIP and CSP resources.

The Univ. of Minnesota conducted a strip-till study and presented data by Jodi DeJong-Hughs here (4-year study): https://blog-crop-news.extension...

·         Spring soil temperatures in the strip are equal to or better than soil temperatures under a chisel plow or vertical tillage

·         Early growing season soil moisture showed driest in the strip, which may allow for earlier planting dates

·         Yields with coulter strip-till were better (but not statistically significant) than shank strip-till in 2015 and 2016 in corn and soybeans – Barney, ND and Fergus Falls, MN

Obviously, there are many different types of strip-tillage implements on the market today, and everyone will have some ideas on what they think is best for their primary soil types.  However, if you would like a recommendation to explore, I’ve seen a few operations in the area utilizing the “Soil Warrior” (which can be set-up in various combinations to create the desired type of strip-tillage zone).  These same operations have commented on the good customer support with the company, Environmental Tillage Systems, out of Fairbault, MN. http://www.soilwarrior.com/








Random Agricultural Facts – Groundhog Day

I’m not sure what a groundhog in Pennsylvania has to do with our weather here in the far Northern Plains, but it’s interesting to look at the history and accuracy of the Groundhog Day weather prediction.

If you are like me, you may have heard at one point “Punxsutawney Phil” was the Latin name for the groundhog species, but that is incorrect.  The groundhog is a marmot with the scientific name of Marmota monaxhttps://www.britannica.com/animal/groundhog


The name “Punxsutawney Phil” comes from the small community in west-central Pennsylvania named Punxsutawney, and their famous groundhog with the given moniker of “Punxsutawney Phil”.  If you’re wondering of the origin of the name Punxsutawney… well the town was first settled by an indigenous tribe and the word “Punxsutawney” translates to “town of the sandflies” in their native dialect.

And, what about the date of February 2nd?  Well, it’s the approximate halfway point of the winter solstice season.  With approximately 13 weeks of each solstice season during the calendar year, February 2nd is a point where it’s only 6-7 weeks to the beginning of the spring equinox in the northern hemisphere.  The date has Christian roots as a day of feast of “Candlemas”.  In European tradition on this day, candles were brought to the local church for blessing and a folk song was enjoyed with a spring arrival reference.  The local German culture in Pennsylvania carried on the homeland tradition, expanded on it, and today we have what is known as Groundhog Day (without religious connotation nor candles). https://www.tripsavvy.com/dia-de-la-candelaria-1588765

Punxsutawney Phil was first tasked with predicting the upcoming spring weather in 1887, and the process remains fairly rudimentary today.  The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, of Punxsutawney, PA, takes care of Phil year-round, and on each Feb. 2nd, members of the club's Inner Circle rouse Phil at sunrise to see if he casts a shadow.  Contrary to popular belief, Phil doesn't actually have to see his shadow; he just has to cast one to make his wintery prophecy.

If Phil does cast a shadow, the prediction will be for six more weeks of winter – basically lasting until the spring equinox in later March.

So, how accurate is Phil’s weather predication?  According to the Groundhog Club's records, the various incarnations of Punxsutawney Phil have predicted 124 forecasts: 104 forecasts of more winter and only 20 for an early spring.  If you compare Phil’s performance against actual weather outcomes since 1969 (when the accuracy of weather records is less in question), his overall accuracy rate is about 36 percent, according to Weather Underground.  However, when he predicts an early spring, the accuracy improves to just shy of 50%.

Lastly, what about the alternate name of “woodchuck” for a groundhog?  Well, it has nothing to do with wood, nor chucking it.  According to the Animal Diversity Web, groundhogs do not chew wood.  The word woodchuck comes from a Native American word, wuchak, which roughly translates to "digger".

https://www.tripsavvy.com/what-is-groundhog-day-2707298