“Hey B.Scott! Man, sorry to hear you’re out of tonight’s
game.”
“Yeah, bad ankle.”
“Alright. Who’s guarding me?”
“Uhhh… Peeler.”
“Hah! 50!”
Michael Jordan
and his Los Angeles Lakers counterpart Byron Scott as they crossed paths
entering The Forum.
This particular night in NBA history dates
back to November of 1992 in Los Angeles.
So, how did Jordan perform on the road after his pre-game excitement? Well, to no surprise, Jordan accumulated 54
points, 13 rebounds, and 7 assists in 47 min of playing time! When an opposing player goes off for 50 plus
points, I’m sure a variety of defenders took their lumps – including Anthony
Peeler. But, the Lakers got the last
laugh as they got the win – by two points in overtime, 120-118. The two-time defending NBA Champion Bulls
somehow struggled despite the absence of two key Lakers – the injured Byron
Scott and the forced early retirement of Magic Johnson.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199211200LAL.html
No one is getting a last laugh in today’s ag
market with continual sub $3/bu cash corn and a soybean cash price around
$8/bu. However, many folks think
brighter days are ahead for the US farmer and rancher as the dollar slowly
slides weaker and US exports are picking-up pace into China and other
destinations. We’ll see how the
remainder of the year finishes out, but hopefully, we’ll continue to see some
positive market movement for US produced ag-commodities. I know it’s rare, but we could see a harvest
rally take shape this autumn.
Weather and
Corn Development
The
great conditions for full season row crops continue in our region, and it looks
like we will get at least another week or two of these conditions before the
‘ber months begin – September, October, November. We’ll have above average daily temperatures this
week – highs in the low 80’s, and lows in the low 60’sF. The conditions should bring another 150-155
GDD’s and keep the crop moving along nicely for maturity.
The heat unit accumulation map
for our region through Aug 2nd continues to have our corn crop in a
very favorable position regarding maturity as we finish-up the blister stages
(R2) at the least and start the milk to dough stages for the most mature corn
in the region. Corn hybrids in the 80-90
RM range will require about 1950 to 2100 GDU’s to reach full physiological
maturity (i.e. black layer). With most locations
around 100 to 150 GDD’s above normal (1981-2010 for a 30-year average is the
defined normal for NDAWN), we are seeing this season’s corn crop still about
5-10 days ahead of average in general with regards to maturity.
The last couple years, we have
seen the lack of solar radiation come into play for our corn crop, but so far
this season, we are on pace for a daily solar radiation improvement over last
year of about 8% or roughly 45 Langleys (average across the region). A Langley is a unit of heat transmission
received by the earth. One Langley per
day equates to about 0.5 Watt/m2. NDAWN
does track solar radiation by Langleys and this link will get you to a spot for
an analysis. The second link is the
definition of a Langley.
https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/get-map.html?mtype...
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detailfull/null/...
The first half of August has seen
significant rainfall in most locations and it’s really wet in the Hillsboro to Ada
area again. The Hillsboro area is probably
only second to Greenbush for the amount of moisture received over the past 12
months in our region. I think most farm
managers would like the rain to shut-off for a few to several weeks at this
point to get the wheat harvest complete and begin to dry-out a bit before the
fall rains begin. Most locations should
have plenty of soil moisture to finish the season if we have any type of root
system developed under the crops.
I’ll count on your weather app
for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that,
I’ve found this site from NOAA to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day
outlook (next week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
During this time frame the
forecast is to have greater chances of being above average for temperatures, while
the precipitation forecast is for equal chances of both below and above average
conditions to develop.
The NOAA group
also provides three month outlooks. If
we would like to get a look at the forecast for the mid-late autumn to early
winter season (months of Oct-Nov-Dec, it can be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
This forecast
currently predicts greater chances for above average temperatures, while also
calling for significantly greater chances of having above average precipitation
as well. Hopefully, we’re not in for a
bearcat of a fall harvest with wet conditions like 2019.
Well, it’s been two weeks since I reiterated
some of these USDA estimates, and with the big storm across Iowa and Illinois,
they have been adjusted downward. It is
estimated that over 35 mil acres of corn and soybeans have been damaged by last
Monday’s derecho storm in the heart of the Midwest.
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2020/08/derecho-damage-begins...
The Aug 12th USDA Crop Production
Report had a record corn and soybean crop forecasted for 2020 regarding yield levels
(181.3 bu/ac for corn, and 53.3 bu/ac for soybeans) and corn production record
forecasted at 15.3 bil bushels, but there is no chance they could have accounted
for the derecho storm that came on the evening of the 10th. Corn and Soybean markets responded up last
week and up again to start this week as challenges are beginning to be realized
after the huge wind storm.
ProFarmer will have their annual crop tour
this week in the Midwest and eastern corn belt, and usually they are within a
couple bushel of the USDA’s final corn and soybean yield predictions. We’ll see what they find/predict.
The USDA states that corn dent is occurring
across 23% of the US acreage, and at 1% for North Dakota. The prior 5-year average for corn denting
across the US is 24% (7% for ND), making the corn crop slightly behind schedule
across the nation according to the USDA.
The corn crop condition report comes in at 69% of acreage in the good to
excellent category (last week – 71%), and the North Dakota crop rates at a
similar level of the US crop – 67% in the good to excellent category.
For soybeans, USDA predicts that 83% of the
acres are setting pods, while 72% of acres rate in the good to excellent
category for crop condition (prior week of 74%). North Dakota’s soybeans would rate at 63%
good to excellent and 83% are at least in the pod setting stage.
Spring wheat has a 70% good to excellent
rating across the US for crop condition (up 1% points over last week) with
N.Dakota’s spring wheat condition rated below the national average at 65% good
to excellent.
That’s a good point as last season we only
had 164.9 mil acres of corn and soybean planting with just over 19 mil acres of
Prevent Plant. I guess the difference in
Prevent Plant over the past two seasons is about 10 mil acres and, this 2020
season has about 10 mil more acres of corn and soybean plantings than
2019. The bigger gripe should be – how
could the 2019 season have only about 10 mil acres less of corn and soybeans
compared to the past 8-year average when there was 19-20 mil acres of Prevent
Plant? It looks like that mystery 10 mil
acres of corn and soybean planting is continuing to somehow carrying over to
2020.
https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/70795w747/6t054476d/prog3220.pdf
Product
Spotlight – Bio-Diesel
If
you haven’t got the farm fuel tanks completely topped-off for harvest, you may
ask your supplier about a B-20 bio-diesel blend. A couple regional farmers have mentioned that
it’s currently running about a 6 to 7-cent discount compared to straight #2
diesel.
Ethanol
Production Currently in the Black
Last
week, we discussed federal bailout dollars for the ethanol industry and now this
week, I’d like to evaluate how significantly the ethanol industry has been hurt
in 2020.
FarmDoc
had a very informative article on this precise topic. It has been assumed that ethanol profitability
has been hurt as gasoline usage trended down significantly after the mid-March
economic shut-down. Gasoline fuel
consumption has resumed an upward trend over the past 3 months, but still lags
about 10% below the 5-year average currently.
Despite
this lag, processors have experienced favorable price movement on not only the
price of commodity corn, but also the by-products – DDGS (distillers dried
grains and solubles), and corn oil. The
price of ethanol is also trending higher (along with gasoline prices). When you add up all these factors, the
average ethanol facility has been turning a profit since early May and has a
great shot at finishing the year in positive economic territory.
Yes,
the COVID-19 pandemic did hurt the ethanol industry, but it is good news to
hear the industry is breathing again and has a chance to finish the year in a
healthy economic position. The FarmDoc
article does highlight the fact that ethanol facilities will differ in their
individual economic situation based on the reality that many facilities are
carrying construction debt and thus fixed costs will vary tremendously across
the industry.
The
US ethanol industry consumes about 35-40% of the nation’s corn crop on an
annual basis, and thus the health of the industry is key for agriculture in
general.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/08/ethanol-production-profits...
Sunflower
Outlook
Despite
a bit of sunflower rust and some minor insect activity with red seed weevil and
banded sunflower moth, the sunflower crop in our region looks fantastic. I know it’s still a bit early, but it looks
like a bumper good crop across the Dakota’s and western Minnesota region.
As
you know, many of the contracts signed last winter were only for a portion of
the sunflower crop. Sunflower
commodity price will probably erode, so stay in touch with processors to
evaluate market opportunities.
Bayer’s® 2nd
Quarter Earnings Report Litigation Settlements
Bayer®
AG decided to rip the band-aid off quickly in regard to posting their full financial
hit regarding litigation settlement around the glyphosate and dicamba
herbicides. The company revealed a
US$11.23 bil loss for the 2nd quarter of 2020. Second quarter reports from prior year (2019)
indicated a profit of US$343 mil. Stock
price for BAYRY have been hovering in the $16-20/share price over the past
several months in full anticipation of the move by the company.
Bayer®
expects litigation costs to total-up to about US$10.9 bil for actions against
glyphosate and cancer related issues for current and possible future claims.
http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---36135.htm
http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---36150.htm
China is Enhancing US
Ag-Commodity Purchasing
Well, another
step in the proper direction occurred for the month of June regarding China’s
commitment to the US for Phase 1 of the two-country trade deal. FarmDoc reports that US exporters sold almost
2 mil MT of corn (1.937 mil MT to be exact or 76.1 mil bu) into China during
June and trade volumes for July are unofficially looking strong as well.
The Chinese
target to fulfill Phase 1 agriculture obligations to the US is $36.5 bil. That 76.1 mil bushels of corn China purchased
may seem very large on the surface, but if the value is around $3.25/bu it
would only equate to $247 mil or obout 0.7% of a dent into the total obligation
for the year concerning Phase 1. There
are still 6 months remaining in the calendar year, and the Chinese have only
obtained 23.3% of the ag-commodity obligation through the first half of the
year.
I maybe bold,
but I look for China to make a run at fulfilling this trade deal commitment by
year’s end. As our US dollar becomes
weaker, it will only cost China more in the long run. Renegotiating with the US will only benefit
the Chinese if the Republicans are surprisingly defeated in the November US
elections. That is not a bet I would
like to be forced into. And, if the GOP
does retain power, they will be in a position of additional strength for the
next round of negotiations.
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2020/08/china-makes-another...
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2020/08/as-u-s-chinese-negotiat...
EPA
Considering Registering a New Herbicide
The
company ISK Biosciences Corporation has submitted an application into the EPA
for registration of their new herbicide compound – tiafenacil. This product would be a brand-new mode of
action in the market as a pre-plant and pre-emerge herbicide. It is proposed for use in corn, soybeans,
cotton and wheat and will help the battle against glyphosate resistance weeds
such as Palmer Amaranth, Marestail, and Waterhemp. The stewardship data indicates that the
compound will be generally low risk to humans and other non-target organisms,
keeping the environmental risk very low.
There
is currently a 30-day comment period going on through the month of August and
it’s always of great assistance when a farm manager can write in comments from
a “in the field” perspective. If you
would like to write a few comments into the EPA on the issue, I recommend
visiting this EPSA website (below) and then they provide a link at the bottom
of the article to follow.
https://www.epa.gov/pesticides/epa-proposes-registration-new-herb...
Iowa Derecho Storm Update
It sounds
like Mr. Barron will have future social media posts on the developing
situation, so give his website and YouTube/Podcast channel a view (Ag View
Pitch). Here is a link to the above
mentioned video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HvJAYiS1xE
Derecho
storm info: https://www.weather.gov/lmk/derecho
Random Agricultural Facts – US
Corn Acre History
Over the
last month we conversed about corn being “king” and current acreage of the top
planted crops in the US. This week, I’ll
ask the ag history buffs if they know which year holds the record corn
planted acreage? Which Decade? And, which 10-year span?
From 1927
to 1936, US farmers planted over 100 million acres of corn on an average annual
basis – 103.66 mil acres on average to be exact for the highest 10-year
average. The high point was 1932 with
113.02 mil acres. Since USDA records
(below link) only date back to 1926 for corn plantings, I’ll name the 1930’s as
the decade of greatest corn planted acreage – an average of 102.19 mil acres
annually.
The USDA
does have corn harvested acres dating back to 1866, and the decade of the
1910’s has harvested corn for grain acreage at an average of 100.5 mil acres
per year. In the 1930’s, despite there
being an average of 102.19 mil acres planted, only 82.0 mil acres per year on
average were harvested for grain – denoting about a 20% decline in harvested
acres over planted acres (assuming most of these unharvested corn acres went
for silage during the time frame).
Therefore, if you assume the same math and add 20% to the 1910’s corn
harvested acres to estimate planting acreage for the 1910’s decade, you’d easily
give the nod to this decade for highest corn planted acreage.
Interesting
to note that the vast majority of the corn was open-pollinated varieties back
in those days and thus bin-run. Henry A.
Wallace started his Pioneer hybrid seed corn business in 1926 and I bet it was
tremendous fun for the sales team to drive customer success in those early
days.
Conversely,
the decade of least corn acre plantings in the US occurred in the 1960’s at
67.90 mil acres annually. However, the
single year for least US corn acre plantings did not transpire in the 60’s, it
happened in 1983 at 60.21 mil acres – due to government program “set aside
acres” or “PIK Program” policy.
