Yield and Profit: May 3, 2021 Edition

“This year, there are no right answers!” - Kristie Sundeen, Pioneer Field Agronomist

Field soil conditions are currently very suitable for planting, but the lack of adequate consistent soil temperatures provide concern. A few farms showed some patience, but many operations dove right into the sugarbeet, corn, canola, and/or soybean planting. By the end of May, we’ll have the benefit of hindsight but even then, that won’t do us much good. A few operations went ahead but moved at a very slow pace waiting for more ideal conditions for the majority of their acres. As usual, we’ll see what the best plan of attack would have been (not that it really matters).

Regional Weather

As usual, it takes until the month of May to arrive until we see some consistent soil temperatures in the mid to upper 40’sF in many locations of the far northern plains. Even though we’ll have some overnight lows around the freezing mark this week, we should see our soil temperatures become more consistent. To me, we should now feel confident planting corn and any early soybeans. Without a significant cold front or precipitation in the 7-10 day forecast, I’d even say we should plant right-up to any future rain/cold event (unless unprecedentedly cold).

The soil temperature chart (^oFahrenheit) comes from NDAWN at 8 am Monday, May 3^rd. These figures at all locations and depths do continue to build, albeit slowly. I highlighted in blue any readings below 40F and gave the red highlights to any reading at or above 49F. Bottineau clearly remains the coolest spot, while Dickinson and Fargo via for the warmest soils in the state currently.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the second full week of May, the forecast for our region looks to have greater potential for below average temperatures and above average precipitation. Sunday evening’s rain event did provide some moisture, but it was fairly light in general (see map), so we’ll take any additional rainfall.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks. If we would like to get a general forecast for the latter half of the summer season (July-Aug-Sept), it can be seen here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

This forecast currently predicts above average chances on the temperature potential and below average on the precipitation potential as we move into the later stages of the season for our region. If we don’t get some good rains in June this year, we may struggle once again with some drought stress in August.

Soybean Planting Rates and Row Spacing

NDSU’s Crop and Pest Report is off and running for the season. One key topic they reviewed was soybean planting regarding seeding rates and row spacing.

For row spacing, their 12-year data (2008-’19) reveals the yield advantage remaining with narrow rows – less than 15” being optimum (see graph). Most of the row spacing tests were conducted at 7”, 12”, 14”, 24”, and 28”, and seeding populations were numerous between 80k and 200k kernels per acre.

The planting equipment utilized at the various sites across North Dakota was not mentioned, but my guess is they just used their 7” or 12” drill and blocked-off rows to get their desired test spacing. To me, this is significantly different than using a planter at 22” or 30” and comparing against an air-drill at 14” or less spacing.

From my perspective, fields that show some agronomic challenges with IDC (iron deficiency chlorosis) or white mold (sclerotinia), or poor seedbed do tend to yield better with the planter versus a drill as they obtain more uniform depth and subsequent better plant emergence. In the case of sclerotinia, wider rows do allow additional air movement through the canopy and thus drier soil surfaces to minimize sclerotia germination. On those more uniform high yielding fields without white mold pressure, I’m sure narrow rows with populations in the 170-180k range would yield the best.

The seeding rate analysis from the same trials over the 12-year span reveals a wide window where soybeans can still achieve 100-101.7% of yield. This window basically indicates full yield can be achieved with planting rates on a PLS (pure live seed) basis from 135 to 220 PLS per acre. NDSU’s research did show on average an 8% loss of kernels – therefore, needing about 146k kernel drop/acre to obtain the 135k/acre live viable plants. Maybe a planter will provide more PLS over an air-seeder/drill, but I think it would be a minimal difference.

https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/publications/crops/soybean-response-to-planting-rates-and-row-spacings-in-north-dakota

USDA Crop Progress Report

Corn planting progress more than doubled (almost tripled) over the past week and currently sits at 46% complete according to the USDA (17% last week). Today’s report (Monday, May 3^rd), also reveals 24% of the nation’s soybeans are planted which is triple last week’s figure of 8%. At this pace, most of the corn and soybeans will be planted in the next 10-14 days if we don’t see some significant rains.

Of the corn acres that are planted, only 8% have emerged which is basically right on pace of the 5-year average of 9%.

Spring wheat seeding is also ahead of the average pace at 49% complete (5-year average of 32%). Of the spring wheat that is planted, about 14% is emerged which is slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 10%.

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j

Sunflower Nitrogen Calculator

NDSU’s sunflower calculator for estimating nitrogen application rates for sunflower production in North Dakota has been available for a few years. It’s a fairly simple model that asks for only a few field parameters (sunflower type: oil vs confections, prior crop, tillage system, soil organic matter, and soil test nitrogen), along with a couple economic parameters – sunflower commodity price and nitrogen price.

https://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/soils/sunflower/

Most scenarios will call for around 150 lbs total N/ac in eastern North Dakota. If you are planning on sunflower production in a field that has recently been CRP (or pasture) and you are still building soil fertility, then I would recommend additional nitrogen. Conversely, if you have typically been heavy on the nitrogen fertilizer for high nitrogen use crops (small grains, corn, canola), then most likely the sunflowers will scavenge some nitrogen that has leached to deeper soil zones, thus requiring less nitrogen application.

If you’d like to see NDSU full sunflower fertility recommendations from Dr. Dave Franzen (revised Feb. 2016), they can be viewed at the following website:

https://www.sunflowernsa.com/...Sunflower.NDSU.SF713_Feb.2016.pdf

Product Spotlight: Herbicide Carryover

I know, “herbicide carryover” is not a product to spotlight, but it can and does occur in our environment from time to time when rainfall has been significantly below average. I addressed this topic over the winter, but as conditions continue on the dry side, it’s worth another quick review.

In a nutshell, our northern latitudes (cool soil temperatures), high soil pH’s (7.7 and above), short growing season, and areas of low soil organic matter (o.m. under 2.0%) create scenarios where herbicides can persist longer in the soil than anticipated. Throw in some periodic drought conditions and the risk increases.

One of the main concerns this year could be with copyralid (Stinger®). Corteva™ has a couple products that contain copyralid – WideMatch® and Perfect Match® - and the Stinger® product is widely used in sugarbeets and sometimes for corn and canola. The label states for soils with greater than 2% o.m., a rainfall rate of 15” (over the 12 months since application) is needed for a 10.5-month rotation interval to soybeans, dry edible beans, and/or sunflower. If soils are less than 2% o.m. than the rotation restriction is 18 months to these crops regardless of rainfall. For, North Dakota we probably need to get west of Hyw 32 to find areas that do not meet this threshold.

https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/cpr/weeds/herbicide-carryover-concerns-in-2021-04-29-21

Stinger® label: https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agrian-cg-fs1-production/pdfs/Stinger_Label1h.pdf

Random Agricultural Facts – Ethanol Update

Ethanol production in the US did decline somewhat in 2020 – about 15-16% compared to the average of the past three years. With Brazil and the US leading global ethanol production, this same trend of 15-16% decline in production is estimated for the world.

If you figure that the average bushel of corn will produce about 2.85 gallons of ethanol, a 15% reduction in ethanol output in 2020 accounted for 1.365 bil bushel loss of corn grain consumption.

With the corn commodity market in its current rally, the global demand for corn most likely resides with the need for animal feed in the US’s export markets.