May 24, 2021 Edition

 

“You guys don’t have anything to worry about.  DJ’s going to bring the ball down, Chief is going to set a pick and I’m just going to roll-out over there to make a jumper.  You’ll get to go home early!” – Larry Bird

 

This edition of Larry comes from the waning moments of Game 4 of the 1985 NBA Finals at the Forum in Los Angeles.  The game was tied with 19 seconds remaining in the 4^th quarter, and the Celtics with possession after a time-out.  In his own unique style, Larry Bird tells everyone the play, and adds a little funny twist at the end about going home early.  It brings some humor to the situation as it’s the road team who always prefers to avoid overtime as they often are a little weary due to the travel (especially cross-country in this case), and thus do not like the extra minutes of game time.

Anyway, the first 2/3^rds of the play unfolds just as Larry describes, but Magic Johnson decides to run over and double team Bird.  Larry sees the double team coming, waits for Magic to fully commit, then passes the ball back to a wide-open Dennis Johnson.  DJ shoots the jumper as time expires and the Celtics win the game (107-105).  The win evened the championship series at two games apiece for the Celtics, but they eventually lost the series 4-2, ending their rein as champions from the prior year.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198506050LAL.html

Just like in the game of basketball, many farm managers have to modify the plan on the fly due to changing circumstances.  Sometimes a field is too dry (or wet), sometimes the weeds are too big, sometimes a crop has trouble emerging and you need more insight, etc., but whatever the case may be, the best players usually find a teammate or partner to help them prosper through the situation and find the winning strategy.

Regional Weather

The week looks to have high temperatures fluctuating between the low 80’s to mid-50’s and some frost concerns for Wednesday through Friday mornings.  For the corn GDD calculation, the minimum base temperature in the calculation is 50F, so we’ll still see about 7-8 GDD’s per day or 50-55 GDD’s for the week if the forecasted high temperatures hold true.

Obviously, we had some nice precipitation events over the past 4-5 days to help maintain and manager our crops.  A few locations had too much water (Jamestown, ND and Stephen, MN) and there remains some areas still looking for a bit more rain (southeast ND and to the east into Minnesota, north central ND in the Bottineau to Mohall area, and from Williston south along the ND/MT border).

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week).  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the first week of June, the forecast for our region looks to have slightly greater potential for above average temperatures and below average precipitation.  Now that most areas have rain, bring on the GDD’s!

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general feel for the upcoming winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb), it can be seen here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/...long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7

This forecast currently predicts average temperatures with an “EC” or “equal chances” report, and average to slightly above average precipitation potential (especially western and southern North Dakota).  With last winter being below average on the snow fall, it would be nice to experience some snow volumes again.  Like Daryl Ritchison says, “abnormal weather is the norm.”

Corn Crop Development

With the mid-point of corn planting as May 5^th for the region, the following GDD map below shows growing degree day accumulation for the 2021 season to date.  If your operation planted corn around the 25^th of April, you can add about 60-70 GDDs to these totals for your first planted fields. 

With corn needing roughly 125 GDD from planting to emergence, and about 80-85 GDD for the development of each early leaf stage, we should be able to see V1-V2 corn in most fields currently.  My observations so far indicated good survivability of corn seedlings on those early planted fields.  Many corn fields did not receive a pre-emerge herbicide application, and we’ll need to accomplish that task as soon as fields are ready for equipment.

This site from Perdue University describes corn development based on GDD’s as the crop progresses through the vegetative stages. https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/.../VStagePrediction.html

USDA Crop Progress Report

With the vast majority of corn, soybeans and wheat planted in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, I’ll no longer summarize the Monday afternoon “planting progress” weekly report from USDA. 

If you’d like to see the USDA’s agricultural reports, they can be viewed at this site:  https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j

 

I-40 Shutdown in Memphis

Inspectors have found a large crack in a steel beam on an interstate bridge crossing the Mississippi River in Memphis, TN.  Not only is the bridge shut-down to automobiles since mid-May, but river traffic is also halted until repairs are made.  Numerous vessels and a couple hundred barges sit waiting.

A local retired economist with the Univ. of Memphis states there will be significant delays in goods and services across the country due to the interstate and river shutdown.  The bridge is not expected to be repaired for “several months”.

Much of this region’s bulk dry fertilizer is supplied from the Twin Cities and the Twin Cities are supplied by the Mississippi River barges.  We’ll see what develops, but it’s not difficult to see that product supply will be a concern and fertilizer prices will increase due to supply logistics.

https://wreg.com/news/i-40-bridge-shutdown-could-be-a-disaster... https://landline.media/i-40-bridge...closed-for-several-months/

India Investigating Corruption with Fertilizer Markets

Speaking of fertilizer, AgNews reports that authorities in the country of India are investigating two managing directors of domestic companies who lead an effort in importing agriculture fertilizer.  The allegation is that the individuals secured commissions from overseas suppliers for the return favor of inflating prices for crop nutrient products.  The two companies in question are Indian Farmers Fertilizer Co-operative and Indian Potash Ltd.

Supposedly, fertilizer from these two companies is bought with import contracts on behalf of Indian buyers.  The two individuals in question would artificially inflate the prices and then receive kick-backs from the selling parties.  http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---39188.htm

This brings us to the run-up in fertilizer prices this late winter and spring in the US.  I, like most of you have been told that fertilizer is a commodity and its price is reflected with the price of oil/energy.  Well, that begs the question… how can fertilizer prices of 2021 jump-up in the range of 50-75% when the price of a barrel of oil only climbed 20-30%?  Something doesn’t quite correlate, and maybe there needs to be investigations in other locations around the world besides just India.  If there is potential corruption in one spot, there is probably reason to investigate and ask questions on a broader scale.

 

China Orders Additional Corn; Argentina Farmers Unhappy

Last week, Bloomberg reported that China has secured about 33% of the expected export volume of US corn for the 2021/22 season.  USDA expects China to import about 26 mil MT (or 1 bil bushes) over the coming 12 month USDA trade year, which starts on September 1^st.

In the May WASDE report from the USDA, 2021/22 projected export volume out of the US is 2.45 bil bushels, making China’s commitment to date a little over 800 mil bushels of US corn.  May’s WASDE report also has China forecasted to import 1,800 mil bushels of corn over this time frame (record high).

Twelve months ago, all we heard were reports of record world supplies that would easily take 2-3 years minimum to work through even with below average weather to dampen production.  We didn’t get the adverse weather, but now we sit with much tighter ending stocks.

Meanwhile, in Argentina, farmers are upset with their federal governments 30-day suspension of beef exports and are planning their own nine-day strike to protest the suspension.  Supposedly, inflation in Argentina is near 50% (12-month rate), and the government feels that halting beef exports will help curb the inflation rate on food costs.

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2021/05/china-accelerates-corn-orders-from-the-u-s-while-farmers-in-argentina-prepare...  

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0521.pdf

 

Corn Stand Evaluations

As we’re out evaluating our corn fields for weeds, it’s a great time for stand assessment.  I’ll include a couple sources – the Pioneer article addressing yield impacts due to doubles, skips, and variability of kernel spacing, and the Purdue University on the effect of delayed or uneven emergence.  With the prolonged cooler soil conditions in late April and early May combined with some dry soil in areas, we may not have the most uniform emergence.  The following charts contain the key data.

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/corn_planting_outcome... https://www.extension.purdue.edu/extmedia/nch/nch-36.html

 

 

 Canola Agronomy

NDSU Langdon notes that flea beetle activity starts in canola when air temperatures move above 60F.  The striped flea beetle is quicker to emerge by about two weeks over the crucifer flea beetle, and this is important since today’s common insecticide seed treatments (IST) have very little activity against the striped variant.  It doesn’t take much flea beetle activity to hit the treatment threshold of 20-25% -- especially when the traditional IST has been losing its efficacy.

Pioneer’s Lumiderm® insecticide seed treatment for canola brings an additional mode of action to aid in the control both striped and crucifer flea beetle.  We have seen very strong results with Lumiderm® the prior couple seasons, but with the current dry conditions anything can develop from an agronomic standpoint.

https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/cpr/entomology/canola-flea-beetles-emerging-05-20-21

While we are out scouting flea beetle activity in the canola, it’s a good time to evaluate plant stand establishment.  Most canola researchers and agronomist would agree with BASF’s NDSU’s, and Pioneer’s data of somewhere between 5-10 plants/ft² as the ideal plant density to achieve maximum yields (NDSU has stated 6-8 plants/ft² which is close to BASF’s 5-7 plants/ft², and Pioneer has research suggesting 6-10 plants/ft²).  Everyone’s recommendations are in the same ballpark, therefore if we go with 5-8 plants/ft² as the target, here are the following average counts needed for common row spacings:

·         22” row spacing; 9-14 plants/ft of row

·         15” row spacing; 6-10 plants/ft of row

·         12” row spacing; 5-8 plants/ft of row

·         10” row spacing; 4-7 plants/ft of row

·         7.5” row spacing; 3-5 plants/ft of row

Tanis Sirski from Pioneer® in western Manitoba has an excellent YouTube post on evaluating canola stands.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ib2ipcDS5oQ

Supply Logistic Concerns

Back when the pandemic started, it was consumers looking ahead and conducting purchases for the future.  Now, it’s the companies that supply the consumers that are trying to stock-up on goods in order to ensure products to sell their customers in the coming 6 to 12 to 18 months. 

If some of the country’s and world’s well-resourced companies are executing this task, what’s to say it’s not a good tactic for our farms?  I know supplies are getting more and more expensive for our businesses, but it may be a wise move to begin the process for purchasing inputs for the 2022 cropping season.  If you can take possession and store these products for future use, you will create some added comfort while looking ahead.  How many automobile manufacturers would have liked to have had the foresight of ordering tens of thousands of more computer chips for their automobile plants last year?

This following Farm Policy News article out of the Univ. of Illinois is a good read with several additional links highlighting the concerns.

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2021/05/supply-chain-bottlenecks...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/23/business/auto-semiconductors-general-motors-mercedes.html

 

Chinese Company to Build Glyphosate Plant

A Chinese company named Xingfa Group has announced plans to build a 50k ton glyphosate plant.  The plant will be completed in June of 2022 and thus the product will not be available until the 2023 cropping season.  This same Chinese group is also investing in separate plants for both organic-silicon and caustic soda.  This should help our long-term pesticide needs, but who knows how the political trade tensions will fare between now and then.

http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---39190.htm

Random Agricultural Facts

According to 2-3 year-old data, it is estimated that Americans spend about 10% of their disposable income on food each year – it’s roughly a 50-50 split between food purchased for consumption at home versus food eaten away from home.

About 25% of food Americans bring home each month is discarded.  While 40% of all food grown and produced in the US is never consumed (includes exports).

After accounting for input costs, farmers and ranchers receive about 8 cents out of every dollar spent on food.  To try and increase the take home value of farm produce, about 8% of US farms market foods locally through direct to consumer or intermediate sales.

Farming accounts for only approximately 1% of the US GDP (gross domestic product).

The above figures come from American Farm Bureau Foundation for Agriculture – Food and Farm Facts book (2019 edition): https://www.fb.org/newsroom/fast-facts

htps://stacker.com/stories/3554/50-fascinating-facts-about-farming-america

May 17, 2021 Edition

 

“You guys better get that old man off me before I get 60!  Doc, you are too old and need to retire.  You can’t guard me.” – Larry Bird

 

This quote comes from an infamous Friday night game in the mid-1980’s at the Boston Garden when Larry Bird and Julius Erving got into a bench clearing brawl during the game.  You only hear short concise remarks from either Larry or Julius about this particular game, and from what I can piece together, neither are very fond of their own actions.  Larry’s trash talking went a little too far, bordering on disrespecting one of the all-time greats of the game (but Larry did supposedly have 30 points at the intermission).  Dr. J’s response was over the top as well – a couple Philly teammates held Larry’s arms while Dr. J swung away wildly.

As you can see in the game log, Larry had 42 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists in only 30 minutes of playing time.  Meanwhile, Dr. J (starting his 14^th season) could only muster 6 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists over 23 minutes of playing time.  Supposedly, whenever Bird make a basket during the game, he would immediately iterate two numbers – how many points he had and how many points Erving had.  When Larry tallied-up to “42-6” The Doctor had enough of Larry’s oral and physical capabilities and the melee started.  If Bird could have toned down his rhetoric, and not been thrown out of the game, he probably would have had a shot at that 60-point performance.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198411090BOS.html

This night of NBA action was from early November of 1984 and only the fifth game of the regular season for Boston.  The Celtics and Sixers had gone back and forth over the past several years as Eastern Conference champions, and the Celtics were the current defending NBA champions while the Sixers were the league champions the year prior (1983).  Everyone talks about the Lakers and Celtics from the 1980’s, but in the early part of the decade, the Celtics-76ers rivalry was as intense as it gets and they played much more frequently which fueled the confrontations to a higher level.

Larry got the last laugh on this particular night as the Celtics won the game 130-119, but Julius had the longer career 16 seasons versus Larry’s 13.  I’d say Erving had significantly better career statistics (more total points, rebounds, and steals), but the two players were very comparable on a “Per 36” minute comparison (see link).  Larry won three NBA championships while The Dr. had one NBA championship and two ABA championships.  They are both all-time great players and you couldn’t go wrong arguing who was the better all-star small forward of the 70’s and 80’s. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=bird...erving...

In the business of farming, you can’t go wrong with either corn or soybeans; $6 corn and $15 soybeans should go a long way to providing some profitable gains to help keep the bankers happy next winter.  Most farm managers like to mix it up with a bit of both, but there are a couple farms that went 100% to corn and conversely a couple farms that went 100% to soybeans this particular spring.

Regional Weather

The week looks to have high temperatures in the low to mid 80’s to start the week, then progressively get cooler after mid-week as a moisture front comes into the picture.  If this forecast holds true, we should see about 13-14 GDDs per day or a solid 90 GDD’s for the week.

The soil temperature chart (^oFahrenheit) comes from NDAWN at 9 am Monday, May 17^th.  Soil temps have built nicely over the past 7 days and should help move the crops along at a quick pace.   With many locations reporting soil temps above 55F in the top 4-8” of soil, farm operations with dry edible beans will probably start planting next week after the cold front moves through as we hope to get some moisture to help aid planting conditions.  I highlighted in blue all readings below 45F and gave the red highlights to any reading at or above 55F. 

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week). 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the last full week of May, the forecast for our region looks to have slightly greater potential for below average temperatures and above average precipitation – especially in northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general feel for the upcoming summer season (Jun-July-Aug), it can be seen here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/...

This forecast continues to predict warmer than average temperatures (especially for North Dakota) and below average precipitation potential (especially western North Dakota).  Hopefully, this week’s weather front will carry more moisture than currently forecasted.

Corn Crop Development

Last week, I picked the mid-point of corn planting as May 5^th for the region.  The GDD map below shows growing degree day accumulation for the 2021 season to date.  I know some operations started planting corn the week of April 20th and other operations delayed the start until May 10^th.  If your operation planted corn around the 25^th of April, you can add about 40-50 GDDs to these totals for your first planted fields. 

Last week, I stated that it takes corn roughly about 125 GDD from planting to become emerged.  Therefore, those mid to late April planted fields are starting to emerge, or will be fully emerged by the end of the week.  My initial observations last week indicated good survivability of corn seedlings on those early planted fields and I’m interested to see how they look in a few days.

This site from the University of Perdue describes corn development based on GDD’s as the crop progresses through the vegetative stages: https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn... /VStagePrediction.html . 

This literature review indicates that it takes about 80-85 GDD’s to progress from one vegetative leaf stage to the next.  With 90 GDD’s predicted for this week, we could easily see V2-V3 corn by the end of the month on many corn fields in the area.

USDA Crop Progress Report

Corn planting progress according to the USDA has progressed to 80% complete across the country (67% last week).  Today’s report (Monday, May 17^th), also reveals 61% of the nation’s soybeans are planted which is only 19% above last week’s estimate of 42%. 

For our region, the corn planting is 99% complete, and with the rain in the forecast for the end of the week, the soybeans will be very near 100% by then as well.  The USDA report has North Dakota at only 63% corn planting complete, and this is a good indication that these reports lag when the planting pace is fast.

Of the nation’s corn acres that are planted, 41% have emerged which is slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 35%.  North Dakota reports 8% of corn acres have emerged, compared to the 5-year average of 10%.

Spring wheat seeding is also ahead of the average pace at 85% complete (5-year average of 71%).  Of the spring wheat that is planted, about 47% is emerged which is ahead of the 5-year average of 36%.  North Dakota reports 84% complete with spring wheat planting, and 36% of the wheat emerged within the state.

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j

 

Soybeans Development and Early Weed Control

Some of my counterparts in South Dakota are talking about frost injury to soybeans in a few small geographies, but hopefully we can stay away from those issues in the far northern plains.

A fair number of soybean acres were seeded the last few days of April and into the first week of May this spring.  Since it only takes approximately 90 GDD’s to get soybeans to emerge from planting, we should see soybeans emerged or starting to emerge in early planted fields.

If your farm did not plan on a pre-emergent herbicide application, you will want to start thinking about post-herbicide timing.  The University of Nebraska-Lincoln published a CropWatch article back in 2009 revealing their research on the best timing for initiating post-emerge weed control in soybeans.  Their approach was unique in that it evaluated this parameter based on various row spacings.  Basically, the research pointed out that wider rows (20”, 22”, or 30”) developed soybeans that were not able to compete as aggressively against weeds.  Therefore, soybeans planted in wider rows (versus 7.5” – 15” rows) would benefit more from an earlier first application of herbicide.  As you can see in the chart below, 5% yield reduction due to weed pressure occurs much earlier (V1/1^st trifoliate) in 30” rows versus 7.5” rows (V3/3^rd trifoliate).

https://cropwatch.unl.edu/timing-post-emergence-weed-control...

An alternative way to evaluate this research, would be the added benefit of pre-emerge use under soybeans planted in wide rows.  At a 5% yield loss by V1 (I would think similar for 22” rows), equates to 2 bu/ac loss on a 40 bu/ac production – if the post-em spray is not applied early enough.

Like most of you, I like planted soybeans in 22” rows under conditions of high IDC pressure and/or white mold pressure.  However, there are some trade-offs and the logistics of weed control is not something to overlook.  At $14/bu commodity price we can easily afford the custom applicator, or another spray rig to get the herbicide applied timely and effectively to maximize our production potential.

 

Product Spotlight: Utrisha N®

Corteva® made an announcement in April that it would be partnering with a microbiological group (Symborg) to bring an enhanced nutrient efficiency product to the market.  The bacteria product will create a symbiotic relationship with the plant to provide nitrogen from the atmosphere.

The unique aspect of Utrisha N® is the application is with the sprayer in post-emerge applications – no additional treatment on the seed or with the planter in-furrow.

The press release says it is available for a “broad range of crops, including field and row crops, sugar cane, and turf and ornamental, as well as range and pasture”.  We do have product for testing this spring/summer.  I would think high nitrogen use crops like corn, canola, and spring wheat would be the more likely crops to see results and learn about the product.  Please stay in touch with me or your local Corteva® crop protection rep if you have interest.

https://www.corteva.com/resources/media-center/corteva-and-symborg-agreement-expands-farmer-access-to-microbe..

 

Random Agricultural Facts

Many things in our country resemble “America”, and two of these iconic items are baseball and agriculture.  According to fivethirtyeight.com the two are more interlinked than we think.  A couple of main components of a baseball are cowhide and wool yarn.  Supposedly, it takes about 150 yards of yarn to wrap around a cork and rubber core to make one baseball.  Interesting enough, as the baseball has gotten more “livelier” in the past several years, it’s not the variability around wool yarn or cowhide as suspects.  It would be interesting to see some type of advanced cowhide or wool that could make the game more enlightening. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/#:~:text...

https://stacker.com/stories/3554/50-fascinating-facts-about-farming-america

May 10, 2021 Edition

 

“I do everything young!” – Kobe Bryant

 

Mr. Bryant was drafted into the NBA at age 17, played his first NBA games as an 18-year-old rookie, got married at the age of 22, and unfortunately died at the age of 41.  It’s crazy to think, but with this quote, some say he had the foresight and did converse lightly of an unfortunate abrupt early end of life.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html

In the business of farming, a case can probably be made for doing everything old – the average age of a farm owner is in the upper 50’s – but we do accomplish things early in the spring if given the chance.  Hopefully, we’ll have the same opportunities to keep the pace going strong for the upcoming tasks of crop protection sprays and ultimately the harvest.  The eagerness to plant most of our crops early may or may not be detrimental to our long-term goals of seasonal production.

Regional Weather

I visibly saw my first dandelion blooms on Sunday, and to me that signals the ideal time for planting corn.  Obviously, we can’t just plant corn for one day, so hopefully you still have some acres remaining to finish the corn planting this week as we look for our next moisture event to potentially occur over the coming weekend.

The week looks to have high temperatures in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s and morning temps above freezing.  If this forecast holds true, we should see about 10 GDDs per day or 70 for the week (more on GDDs later).  Hopefully, the trend of night time low temperatures above 32F continues through the remainder of spring.

The soil temperature chart (^oFahrenheit) comes from NDAWN at 8 am Monday, May 10^th.  These figures in general are about the same to slightly cooler than last week’s report.  We should build soil temperatures significantly over the next 7 days.  I highlighted in blue any readings below 40F and gave the red highlights to any reading at or above 48F.  Bottineau and Langdon clearly remain the coolest spots, while Fargo has the warmest soils in the state currently.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week). 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the third full week of May, the forecast for our region looks to have greater potential for well above average temperatures and well above average precipitation.  With the current drier conditions, any forecasts of above average precipitation are a welcome sight.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general feel for the upcoming winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb), it can be seen here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=8

This forecast currently predicts equal chances on the temperature potential and above average on the precipitation potential for most of North Dakota. If we stay fairly dry through the growing season, we will welcome a bit more winter precipitation to aid the soil moisture profiles.

Corn Crop Development

I’ll try to pick an average start date for corn planting in order to provide GDD (Growing Degree Day) maps for the season.  I know some operations started planting corn about 10 days before April ended and other operations are giving the nod to start today (May 10).  Whether right, wrong or indifferent, I’ll use the date of May 5^th as the mid-point of corn planting to show how the heat units are accumulating for the season.

If you planted corn around the 25^th of April, you can add about 40-50 GDDs to these totals for your first planted fields (see first map below).  Also, remember that NDAWN’s 30-year average has shifted – basically the decade from 1981-1990 has been replaced with the decade just completed (2011-2020), creating an updated 30-year average that is cooler and wetter.  It’s interesting to note that despite the early plant opportunity, we are cooler than the 30-year average to start the season (second map)

If you remember from my posts in years past, it takes corn about 125 GDD from planting to become emerged – some hybrid differences do exist.  Once emergence starts, we would like to see 90% of plants emerge within a 48-hour window.  Some of those early planted fields have accumulated 80-100 GDDs currently and should begin to see emergence late this week and into the coming weekend.

This site from the University of Perdue describes corn development based on GDD’s as the crop progresses through the vegetative stages:

https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn... /VStagePrediction.html

If the latter half of May warms-up with average temperatures, we will have the potential to see V2-V3 corn by the end of the month on these late April planted fields.  With 2-3 leaf corn, the herbicide sprayers will be going strong with the first post-emerge applications (assuming no pre-emerge).

USDA Crop Progress Report

Corn planting progress according to the USDA has progressed to 67% complete across the country (46% last week).  Today’s report (Monday, May 10^th), also reveals 42% of the nation’s soybeans are planted which is close to double last week’s estimate of 24%. 

I’d have to say for our region the corn planting is around 85% complete, and with the rain in the forecast for the upcoming weekend, it’ll be very near 100% by the end of the day on Saturday (May 15^th).  The USDA report has North Dakota at only 36% corn planting complete, and this is a good indication that these reports lag by about a week to 10 days when the planting pace is this fast.

Of the nation’s corn acres that are planted, only 20% have emerged which is basically right on pace of the 5-year average of 19%.  North Dakota reports 0% of corn acres have emerged, which everyone should agree as we haven’t had the GDD accumulation for emergence.

Spring wheat seeding is also ahead of the average pace at 70% complete (5-year average of 51%).  Of the spring wheat that is planted, about 29% is emerged which is slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 20%.  North Dakota reports 66% complete with spring wheat planting, and 20% of the wheat emerged within the state.

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j

ADM to Invest in the North Dakota

Reuters just released an article today (May 10^th) outlining ADM’s initiative to build a soybean crushing facility and bio-fuel refinery in North Dakota.  The US$350 Mil facility will be located outside the town of Spiritwood.  This facility is planned to be completed prior to the 2023 soybean harvest.  With a through-put of crushing 150k bu of soybeans per day, it’ll consume about 1.5 mil acres of the commodity annually (based on N.Dakota yield levels of 38 bu/ac).

ADM is also planning to expand their Quincy, Illinois facility ($25 mil investment) with work scheduled to be complete by early 2022.  Obviously, this is a good sign for agriculture in North Dakota when a significant ag-business sees an opportunity and takes steps forward.

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/adm-to-build-new-soy-crushing-facility-to-meet-rising-food-fuel-demand

 

Product Spotlight: Ag Innovation Campus

With the news of ADM’s investment in Spiritwood, I pondered the situation developing in Crookston, MN with their proposed oil seed crush plant.  It was a good timely reminder that the facility in Crookston has an overall different objective than to mass crush soybeans. 

The northwestern Minnesota facility is being developed on a much smaller scale in order to help develop ideas around additional uses for oil crops and the end-use products.  The “Ag Innovation Campus” will have a focus on soybeans, but will also be able to conduct research on the other oil seed crops in the area – canola and sunflower primarily.  The campus will also have space for classrooms, and industry personnel to effectively communicate their research and provide an environment to foster creative ideas. 

The Ag Innovation Campus will be able to crush around 8,000 bushels daily or about 2.5 mil bu annually.  The overall goal is to drive additional demand for oil seed crops, as well as drive down the cost of research to further develop practical ideas for the crushed oil and byproduct meal.  It’ll be interesting to see how this “Campus” develops as we look 5-10 years into the future.

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/business/agriculture/6738187-Ag-Innovation-Campus-breaks-ground-in-Crookston

Random Agricultural Facts

I found an interesting website today that reflects on some of the history around agriculture production and the employment of Americans on our nation’s farms.  The group is named “stacker” and they claim they receive their data through sources such as “American Farm Bureau Federation, USDA, and other industry and trade groups”.

The topic that caught my eye today was, “US states with the most farmland acres”.  It’s difficult to find a definition of “farmland acres” on the website, but it looks like hay and pasture are included.

If you had to guess a state to top this list, I’d say that most folks would probably guess Texas as the state with the most farmland acres (and that would be correct).  California and Montana are the next largest areas in land size (excluding Alaska), but surprisingly Montana comes in 9^th (16.6 mil acres) on the list and California 16^th (9.6 mil acres) – I guess too many mountainous areas, and in California’s case, large acreage to urban development.

Second on the list is Kansas with 28.6 mil acres of cropland (which is really close to Texas’s 29.2 mil acres).  North Dakota comes in at #3 with 27.1 mil acres, while Iowa (26.7 mil acres) and Illinois (23.9 mil acres) round out the Top 5.

Conversely, the US state with the least amount of cropland acreage is Rhode Island (25k acres).  Our nation’s largest state in land area is obviously Alaska, but they make this list at #49 with (79k acres).  Other New England states round out the Bottom 5 states on the list – New Hampshire (93k acres), Connecticut (123k acres), and Massachusetts (148k acres).

For those of you in Minnesota, your state comes in at #6 on the list with 22.5 mil acres.  Our Dakota neighbors to the south come in at #8 with 19.4 mil acres.  Read where your favorite state ranks at the following website:

https://stacker.com/stories/1578/states-most-farmland

https://stacker.com/stories/3554/50-fascinating-facts-about-farming-america

May 3, 2021 Edition

 

“This year, there are no right answers!” - Kristie Sundeen, Pioneer Field Agronomist

 

Field soil conditions are currently very suitable for planting, but the lack of adequate consistent soil temperatures provide concern.  A few farms showed some patience, but many operations dove right into the sugarbeet, corn, canola, and/or soybean planting.  By the end of May, we’ll have the benefit of hindsight but even then, that won’t do us much good.  A few operations went ahead but moved at a very slow pace waiting for more ideal conditions for the majority of their acres.  As usual, we’ll see what the best plan of attack would have been (not that it really matters).

Regional Weather

As usual, it takes until the month of May to arrive until we see some consistent soil temperatures in the mid to upper 40’sF in many locations of the far northern plains.  Even though we’ll have some overnight lows around the freezing mark this week, we should see our soil temperatures become more consistent.  To me, we should now feel confident planting corn and any early soybeans.  Without a significant cold front or precipitation in the 7-10 day forecast, I’d even say we should plant right-up to any future rain/cold event (unless unprecedentedly cold).

The soil temperature chart (^oFahrenheit) comes from NDAWN at 8 am Monday, May 3^rd.  These figures at all locations and depths do continue to build, albeit slowly.  I highlighted in blue any readings below 40F and gave the red highlights to any reading at or above 49F.  Bottineau clearly remains the coolest spot, while Dickinson and Fargo via for the warmest soils in the state currently.

I’ll count on your weather app for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that, I’ve found this site from National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day outlook (next week). 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

For the second full week of May, the forecast for our region looks to have greater potential for below average temperatures and above average precipitation.  Sunday evening’s rain event did provide some moisture, but it was fairly light in general (see map), so we’ll take any additional rainfall.

The NOAA organization also provides three month outlooks.  If we would like to get a general forecast for the latter half of the summer season (July-Aug-Sept), it can be seen here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

This forecast currently predicts above average chances on the temperature potential and below average on the precipitation potential as we move into the later stages of the season for our region.  If we don’t get some good rains in June this year, we may struggle once again with some drought stress in August.

Soybean Planting Rates and Row Spacing

NDSU’s Crop and Pest Report is off and running for the season.  One key topic they reviewed was soybean planting regarding seeding rates and row spacing. 

For row spacing, their 12-year data (2008-’19) reveals the yield advantage remaining with narrow rows – less than 15” being optimum (see graph).  Most of the row spacing tests were conducted at 7”, 12”, 14”, 24”, and 28”, and seeding populations were numerous between 80k and 200k kernels per acre. 

The planting equipment utilized at the various sites across North Dakota was not mentioned, but my guess is they just used their 7” or 12” drill and blocked-off rows to get their desired test spacing.  To me, this is significantly different than using a planter at 22” or 30” and comparing against an air-drill at 14” or less spacing.

From my perspective, fields that show some agronomic challenges with IDC (iron deficiency chlorosis) or white mold (sclerotinia), or poor seedbed do tend to yield better with the planter versus a drill as they obtain more uniform depth and subsequent better plant emergence.  In the case of sclerotinia, wider rows do allow additional air movement through the canopy and thus drier soil surfaces to minimize sclerotia germination.  On those more uniform high yielding fields without white mold pressure, I’m sure narrow rows with populations in the 170-180k range would yield the best.

The seeding rate analysis from the same trials over the 12-year span reveals a wide window where soybeans can still achieve 100-101.7% of yield.  This window basically indicates full yield can be achieved with planting rates on a PLS (pure live seed) basis from 135 to 220 PLS per acre.  NDSU’s research did show on average an 8% loss of kernels – therefore, needing about 146k kernel drop/acre to obtain the 135k/acre live viable plants.  Maybe a planter will provide more PLS over an air-seeder/drill, but I think it would be a minimal difference.

https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/publications/crops/soybean-response-to-planting-rates-and-row-spacings-in-north-dakota

USDA Crop Progress Report

Corn planting progress more than doubled (almost tripled) over the past week and currently sits at 46% complete according to the USDA (17% last week).  Today’s report (Monday, May 3^rd), also reveals 24% of the nation’s soybeans are planted which is triple last week’s figure of 8%.  At this pace, most of the corn and soybeans will be planted in the next 10-14 days if we don’t see some significant rains.

Of the corn acres that are planted, only 8% have emerged which is basically right on pace of the 5-year average of 9%.

Spring wheat seeding is also ahead of the average pace at 49% complete (5-year average of 32%).  Of the spring wheat that is planted, about 14% is emerged which is slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 10%.

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j

Sunflower Nitrogen Calculator

NDSU’s sunflower calculator for estimating nitrogen application rates for sunflower production in North Dakota has been available for a few years.  It’s a fairly simple model that asks for only a few field parameters (sunflower type: oil vs confections, prior crop, tillage system, soil organic matter, and soil test nitrogen), along with a couple economic parameters – sunflower commodity price and nitrogen price. 

https://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/soils/sunflower/

Most scenarios will call for around 150 lbs total N/ac in eastern North Dakota.  If you are planning on sunflower production in a field that has recently been CRP (or pasture) and you are still building soil fertility, then I would recommend additional nitrogen.  Conversely, if you have typically been heavy on the nitrogen fertilizer for high nitrogen use crops (small grains, corn, canola), then most likely the sunflowers will scavenge some nitrogen that has leached to deeper soil zones, thus requiring less nitrogen application.

If you’d like to see NDSU full sunflower fertility recommendations from Dr. Dave Franzen (revised Feb. 2016), they can be viewed at the following website:

https://www.sunflowernsa.com/...Sunflower.NDSU.SF713_Feb.2016.pdf

 

Product Spotlight: Herbicide Carryover

I know, “herbicide carryover” is not a product to spotlight, but it can and does occur in our environment from time to time when rainfall has been significantly below average.  I addressed this topic over the winter, but as conditions continue on the dry side, it’s worth another quick review. 

In a nutshell, our northern latitudes (cool soil temperatures), high soil pH’s (7.7 and above), short growing season, and areas of low soil organic matter (o.m. under 2.0%) create scenarios where herbicides can persist longer in the soil than anticipated.  Throw in some periodic drought conditions and the risk increases.

One of the main concerns this year could be with copyralid (Stinger®).  Corteva™ has a couple products that contain copyralid – WideMatch® and Perfect Match® - and the Stinger® product is widely used in sugarbeets and sometimes for corn and canola.  The label states for soils with greater than 2% o.m., a rainfall rate of 15” (over the 12 months since application) is needed for a 10.5-month rotation interval to soybeans, dry edible beans, and/or sunflower.  If soils are less than 2% o.m. than the rotation restriction is 18 months to these crops regardless of rainfall.  For, North Dakota we probably need to get west of Hyw 32 to find areas that do not meet this threshold.

https://www.ag.ndsu.edu/cpr/weeds/herbicide-carryover-concerns-in-2021-04-29-21

Stinger® label: https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/agrian-cg-fs1-production/pdfs/Stinger_Label1h.pdf

 

Random Agricultural Facts – Ethanol Update

Ethanol production in the US did decline somewhat in 2020 – about 15-16% compared to the average of the past three years.  With Brazil and the US leading global ethanol production, this same trend of 15-16% decline in production is estimated for the world. 

If you figure that the average bushel of corn will produce about 2.85 gallons of ethanol, a 15% reduction in ethanol output in 2020 accounted for 1.365 bil bushel loss of corn grain consumption.

With the corn commodity market in its current rally, the global demand for corn most likely resides with the need for animal feed in the US’s export markets.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281494/us-fuel-ethanol-production/ https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis...pdf https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2020/transport-biofuels