“Hey
Chuck, who’s guarding me? Do you have anyone assigned to guard me?
It’s too easy when I’m wide open like this. If you don’t get someone on me, I’ll probably
go off for 60 tonight!” – Larry “Legend” Bird to the opposing Detroit Piston
head coach Chuck Daly
On this particular
night (April of 1988) in the hallowed Boston Garden, Coach Daly gave a starting
nod to the young athletic 2nd year pro in Dennis Rodman. Daly also gave Rodman explicit instructions
-- give 100% of your defensive effort onto one guy and one guy only: Larry
Bird. Well, Bird immediately realized the challenge and took it
right to the young Rodman. It did not
take long for Bird to expose the inexperienced youth, and in typical Larry Bird
fashion, he let everyone know -- both by his dominant play on the court and
also for anyone within earshot – who the clear winner was of this mental game
within the game.
Bird finished with
32 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists in 44 minutes of playing time. The Detroit defensive specialist (Rodman),
only garnered 24 minutes of playing time before fouling out with 9 points and 8
rebounds. The Celtics went on to post a
convincing 121-110 home win. https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198804010BOS.html
I don’t know about you, but it seems to
me, that this general election is full of many games within the game being
played. Regardless of your political
position, we should all be able to agree on what we know so far:
· * Trump is holding very popular political
rallies that the American people are responding to with a couple tens of
thousands of folks in attendance regularly
· * Conversely, Biden is taking a very low-key approach with
safety around the pandemic being his primary concern and thus holding only a
few subdued events
· * Current political polls being reported by the main stream
media reveal that Biden is leading in the race by 15-20% across the country
On the topic of the popular vote, we
need to review some history to realize the impact of a 15-20% popular vote lead. Back in 1972 President Nixon almost ran the
table (49 states won) on his Democrat opposition (George McGovern) and
concluded with a 23% vote margin. In
1984 President Reagan equaled the achievement (49 states won) against the
Democrat candidate Walter Mondale with an 18% popular vote margin. In 1820, James Monroe won 99.5% of the casted
Electoral College votes, but then again, Monroe ran unopposed. https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1820
If
Biden is ahead by a 15-20% points, why has he spent the past several
days in Ohio and Pennsylvania? If the
current polls are true, Bidden/Harris should be campaigning in Wyoming and
North Dakota soon.
We are already witnessing some interesting political
“October Surprises”, and for those interested in watching, the games continue...
Weather and
Corn Development
The
day time high temps for the week will begin to wane after Monday, but we remain
in our dry cycle with low relative humidity.
Accumulation of a few more heat units to help dry the corn and
sunflowers will occur this week. With
daily high temps for the week primarily in the 50’s and 60’sF, we’ll forecast
another 50-55 GDD’s over the next 7-day span.
The
GDD map for our region since our killing frost on September 8th and
9th continues to highlight how fast the corn is drying down. With over 230 growing degree days accumulated
in most locations and close to 300 GDD accumulated since the frost in the heart
of the valley over this time frame, it’s not surprising to continue to receive reports
of some corn grain in the 15% to 18% range currently (more on corn drydown
later).
There was a tad of scattered rain
in places last week, but the rainfall map over the last month and a half continues
to reveal dry conditions – especially in the northern half of North Dakota. We’ll continue to look for some moisture to
aid in the field work and to start next year’s crops.
I’ll count on your weather app
for the best guidance through the 7-8 day forecast, but looking beyond that,
I’ve found this site from NOAA to be fairly reliable for a general 8-14 day
outlook (next week). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
For the mid to late October
timeframe, the forecast is to have greater chances of below average temperatures
and below average precipitation.
The NOAA group
also provides three month outlooks. If
we would like to get a general forecast for next spring (Mar-Apr-May), it can
be seen here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6
This forecast
currently predicts below average temperatures, while also calling for greater
chances of above average precipitation. Hopefully, we see some moisture between now
and then to place some humidity into the system so we can get some spring rains
before the month of May hits and planters/drills begin to roll.
Regional Soil Temperatures
Speaking of field work, here is the current snap-shot
for soil temperatures. We should
probably wait another week to see if most locations will fall under a 50F
temperature reading before fall nitrogen applications start. For farm operations focusing only on P &
K fertility, these applications can occur at any time since they are not
temperature dependent.
US Crop
Progress
The USDA estimates corn harvest at 2/5ths
of the way completed for the year across the US, and the soybean harvest at 3/5ths
completed across the nation. For North
Dakota, these numbers are 25% for corn (9% for the 5-year average in the state)
and 83% for soybeans (54% for the 5-year average).
The USDA reports the corn crop condition at
61% of acreage in the good to excellent category across the US (last week – 62%),
and the North Dakota crop ratings held steady at 58% of the acreage in the good
to excellent category. Mature corn is
estimated at 94% of the US acreage. The
prior 5-year average for corn maturity across the US is 87% (77% for ND).
For soybeans, USDA estimates 63% of acres
will rate in the good to excellent category for crop condition (prior week of
64%). However, North Dakota’s soybeans
rate at only 47% good to excellent (down 1 point from 48% last week).
The National Sunflower Association (NSA)
estimated the nation’s sunflower harvest progress at 25% complete which would
be about 2-4 weeks ahead of average pace.
The sunflower production is estimated at 2.81 bil lbs with an average
yield per acre of 1,730 lbs (which would tie the record yield level).
By now, the traders know where this US crop
is going to land for production and all eyes will be on the export and
carry-over volumes looking ahead.
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/8336h188j?locale=en
Bayer AG® Stock Price Takes Another Hit
Bayer’s® communication to shareholders at the
end of the 3rd quarter was pessimistic as they foresee a lingering
pandemic response in agriculture on the global scale. Bayer’s (BAYRY) stock price slump since then
has eroded another $7.7 bil of company market value and now the entire Bayer
company is valued less than the price they paid for Monsanto (US$63 bil) over
two years ago (deal finalized in June of 2018).
Bayer’s® crop business is estimated at just
under 50% of total sales for their company, and they forecast this segment of
their business to face “deeper than expected” impacts that will expand past the
short-term.
There has been speculation in the industry
that BASF® wants a greater piece of the global agriculture business. If this is true, maybe they should look
towards Bayer® to potentially sell-off their agriculture assets. It would make sense for the two German
companies to combine assets as they should see more viable synergies with
headquarters in the same country.
Meanwhile, Corteva’s® stock (CVTA) took a
step upward in early October and currently is bringing over $33 per share – an all-time
high for the company that began trading in June of 2019 at $24.50 a share.
It has also been rumored in the industry that
BASF® is looking at opportunities to acquire Corteva®. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen as I think a
US based agriculture company is good for the American farmer as well as the
American consumer, after all, the US is the largest food producing country in
the world. We’ll see how it plays out,
but I think BASF® will have to look towards Bayer® or others if they want
greater sales volume in agriculture. In
order for Corteva® to remain a pure play US based agriculture company, look for
our stock price to continue upward movement to keep others from an aggressive move.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-30/bayer-to-cut-1-8-billion-of-costs-as-covid-hits-agriculture
Corn Drydown Rates related to GDD’s
Last week, my numbers for GDD’s required
to dry a point of moisture did not look right, so I went back to review some unpublished
Pioneer data from 10-15 years ago and sure enough they were off a bit. The data came from Nebraska and west, so much
drier autumn climate in general but probably similar to our current 2020 conditions
in eastern North Dakota and northwestern MN.
This prior mentioned data would indicate that it takes 17-22 GDD’s to
lower the grain moisture each point from 35% to 22%, while 20-25 GDUs per
moisture point are required from 22% to 15%.
So, if we take a ball park figure of 270
GDD’s received this fall in our region from September 9th (our
killing frost date) until now, we can estimate that we would have dried the
corn around 15-20 points of moisture.
Now, most of the corn was not at black layer when the killing frost
occurred, and if we assume a starting point of 37-38% grain moisture content on
September 9th, you can easily figure current grain corn moisture
contents in the upper teens to low 20% range.
As the corn continues to dry and we get
later into the autumn, it will be more difficult to remove moisture as our air
temperatures drop and humidity (if we can get a rain) is likely to increase.
As the corn gets drier, stalk integrity
begins to fade as well, so keep a watch on hybrid standability as the autumn
unfolds.
The University of Purdue had an article
from September of 2018 on the drydown of mature corn: https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/GrainDrying.html
The article was written by R.L. (Bob) Nielsen
and he reviews the key bullet points:
· Weather conditions strongly influence the rate
of grain drydown and each autumn is fairly unique to drydown rate – rain,
humidity and sunshine all playing factors
·
Corn hybrid characteristics play a role as well
o
Ear husk number, thickness, length, senescence
rate, and tightness around the ear all are factors
o
Pericarp (outside covering) thickness of the individual
grain kernels – thinner pericarp allows the kernel to expel moisture more
easily
o
Ear declination – ears that drop downward tend
to dry more quickly as they are able to naturally shed any autumn moisture
·
Early maturity of hybrids typically means faster
drydown – primarily due to the fact that there are greater chances of
significant heat unit accumulation after reaching physiological maturity
·
Conversely, full season hybrids with later grain
maturity will dry slower due to less potential of receiving significant heat
units to dry the corn after black layer or physiological maturity is reached
(this occurs later in the autumn for a full season hybrid versus an early
season hybrid)
·
Corn grain dries through evaporative moisture transmission
through the pericarp – there is no evidence of moisture loss through the
pedicel (point of connection on the kernel where it attaches to the cob).
No 1099 Being
Sent-out for PPP Loans
The
federal IRS announced in late September that they are informing financial
banking institutions to not distribute 1099 forms regarding PPP (Paycheck
Protection Program) loan income. This
announcement basically transforms your PPP loan into tax-free grant dollars. If your tax accountant has questions, forward
them this weblink and state there is a phone number for assistance to help
answer any concerns:
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/a-20-12.pdf
Product Spotlight
– P8736AM
Are there any corn
hybrids that are consistently rising to the top during the corn harvest within
Pioneer’s® line-up? Well, for those in
the 85 CRM zone, Pioneer’s® 87 RM hybrid is looking like a clear winner this
autumn. With its strong late season
drought stress and stellar genetics against Goss’s Wilt, this hybrid is shining
bright after the 2020 season. We do have
some concerns around harvest standability with scores of “4” for both roots and
stalks, but we did recommend a kernel drop of 32,000 seeds/ac maximum last
winter to assist with better standability.
Ear flex is good and the hybrid is responding well to these management
tips so far this harvest. The hybrid also
rates at 87 RM for corn silage along with good quality scores for beef and milk
production. Silage Relative Maturity
(RM) is the maturity it takes from corn planting to 65% whole plant
moisture. Typically, a rough rule of
thumb is add 10 RM to a standard corn grain maturity for the area for hybrid
silage production.
If you have
questions or concerns about Pioneer’s corn line-up for silage and/or grain
production, please be sure to contact your local Pioneer representative or
myself.
EPA Reviewing
a Phase-out of some Bt Hybrids
With
pesticide resistance continuing to gain momentum across the US (and globally
for that matter), the EPA is looking to implement some tactics to continue to
combat the ever-evolving threat in the US.
Multiple
strategies are being discussed, but one idea is to eliminate the use of most Bt
corn and cotton hybrids that contain only a single or dual Bt proteins – which is
most of today’s hybrids. Another tactic is
to bring back isolated and separate refuge requirements for a “pure” insect breeding
ground without the presence of Bt proteins (no blended products like AcreMax or
RIB).
Moving
forward, new Bt proteins and multiple (three or more) stacks of different Bt
proteins could be required to keep pest pressure susceptible to the technology
and farmers satisfied with the control witnessed in the field. Products containing Bt traits from Corteva®,
Syngenta®, and Bayer® are being proposed for phase-out in only a 3 to 5-year
timeframe.
The
EPA is taking written comments until November 9th and it’s always
informative if they can gather some insight from farm managers and ag-consultants. If you’d like to submit your comments please
see this site: https://www.federalregister.gov/.../epa-draft-proposal-to-improve-lepidopteran-resistance-management-notice-of-availability
http://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---36787.htm
Random
Agricultural Facts – Christopher Columbus
With Columbus Day
occurring this Monday (Oct. 12th), here are some popular and
unpopular facts about Christopher Columbus and the holiday in his honor:
- Columbus Day has been a Federal US
holiday since 1937, and since 1971 has always occurred on the second
Monday of October
- The date reflects Columbus’s arrival in
the West on Oct. 12, 1492
- Back in the 1700’s, scholars of the
world were convinced the earth was circular in shape, but Columbus thought
the planet was much smaller in size.
Thus, he thought they landed in Asia when reaching what is today
the Bahamas
- Once Columbus seen the natives, he
called them “Indians” assuming he was in India
- Although Columbus was of Italian
nationality, he claimed the Bahamas and other Caribbean islands for the
country of Spain as he was sponsored by the Spanish King and Queen to
explore on their behalf
- Columbus never set foot in the current
contiguous United States
- Columbus and his men are reported to
have treated the natives very harshly, with some occurrences of
enslavement and murder
- He was sent back to Spain in shackles at
one point because of his ruthlessness, poor leadership and lack of found
riches
- He died in May of 1506 – only 14 years
after his maiden voyage west – still believing that he had found the
shorter sailing route to Asia from western Europe
-
Columbus’s tie to
agriculture? He and his group
started the first agriculture trading between the West and East. Wheat, coffee, sugar and horses where
some of the key items the native Americans first enjoyed from Europe. While tomatoes, potatoes, and corn were
the first products the Europeans enjoyed from the West
- Many political groups across the US have
successfully installed the observance of “Indigenous Peoples’ Day” on this
same date. These groups are looking
to replace the Christopher Columbus holiday on a national scale with a day
celebrating the indigenous native Americans – not a terrible idea, but
let’s not forget the significance and history of Christopher Columbus in
the process
- On a side note, many historians believe
that Leif Erikson was the first European to lead an expedition to North America. It is believed that Erikson ventured
west and south from Greenland into present day far eastern Canada around
1000 years ago – which was about 500 years before Columbus
·
If you are interested in a good read on Erikson
and a couple cold hard facts about Norwegian inhabitance on the North American
continent, it can be viewed here: https://cdnhistorybits.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/leif-erikson-vikings-canada/
https://www.biography.com/explorer/christopher-columbus
